MLB Fantasy Jump Start - San Francisco GIants

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Rotation

1. RHP Tim Lincecum - Firmly entrenched as the ace of this quality starting staff, Lincecum is one of fantasy baseball's surest things. While most lament his 2010 as an off year (16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks in 212-1/3 IP), that alone testifies to the consistently superior numbers he puts up. He still hums the heater in the high 90s & his pitching arsenal is enough to stifle any MLB hitter. Some say there's a dip in his velocity & point to a very inflated home run rate but the fact remains he led the NL in Ks and strikeout ratio for qualifiers. I'd expect at least a small rebound in 2011 that could easily see him returning to 18 or more wins & an ERA south of 3.00. In the top three for fantasy starters, if you want him you better get him quick.

 

2. LHP Jonathan Sanchez - Most information has Sanchez in the #2 hole and based on 2010, there's little to argue about that. I'd slot Matt Cain #2 but Bruce Bochy seems to tag along with everyone else's philosophy of staggering righty/lefty pitching. I honestly don't see the advantage and given that baseball probably has more right handed than left handed hitters, can't buy into it either. So be it. Sanchez gets the #2 call based on his 1st double digit (13) win season for the World Champs to go along with other career bests in ERA (3.07), Ks (205) & just about every other relevant pitching category. 2010 was also the 1st  year he went below 4.24 in ERA so that's quite an improvement and seems even more remarkable as he gave up a career high 96 walks. Not much out of the ordinary there as his control has always been his Achilles heel and strikeouts his forte. So what to make of him for 2011? Well at 28 I think he's finally learned how to control the games he starts so I don't see a big regression happening. With the amount of pitches he throws, he probably won't stick around long in enough in all the games he starts to get the win. Let's say most of his 2010 numbers are representative and he might tack on another win or two. That makes him a low #3 or a high #4 fantasy starter.

3. RHP Matt Cain - There's still a possibility Cain could switch rotation spots with Sanchez but we'll leave him here for now. Most of Cain's 2010 numbers (13 wins & 3.14 ERA for example) very closely resemble Sanchez except for  strikeouts (177). To me, Cain is very capable of approaching Sanchez like numbers in that category as well plus his walk totals have actually decreased the past 3 seasons showing definitive signs of maturing as a starter. He also used to throw so many pitches in a game that he was done in 5 or 6 innings. His average innings pitched per game in 2010 almost hit 7 (6.75) so all the needles are now pointing in the right direction. He used to be a very hard luck starter that never got any run support for his efforts but a suddenly stronger SF offense should help that. I'd put him on the same level as Sanchez as he'll probably win a few more (16 or 17 is certainly in reach) & strike out about 30-40 less over the course of the year.

4. LHP Madison Bumgarner - Some say that Zito goes #4 & put Bumgarner at 5 but I don't think so. We'll discuss Zito soon enough. Though his 4 solid relief appearances in 2009 as a rookie should have been a good clue, he claimed the rotation spot last year when given the chance. Though 21, he showed mound maturity beyond his years in 2010 finishing with 7 wins, a 2.90 ERA & 86 Ks in 19 starts covering 121 IP. The only red flag is he gives up too many hits, which he shouldn't based on the pitches he commands, and that results in higher AA (average against) & WHIP numbers. I also believe he can improve his K rate to compete with the rest of this flame throwing bunch even though I think his out pitch is an off the table curve. Moving up a notch to #4 should also guarantee at least double digit wins (I'm seeing 13). A middle of the pack #5 fantasy starter.   

5. LHP Barry Zito - Wherever he goes, the team that has him covets his skills. I'm pressed to understand why. The thought in San Francisco is management doesn't want the public humiliation of releasing a pitcher they shelled out an enormous amount of money to retain. In the last 4 years, he constantly pitched with an ERA in 4.00s & even 5.00s. A hot beginning in 2010 barely salvaged his season as he still only won 9 while losing 14. Known for his vaunted off speed pitches, he lost nine straight decisions near the end of the year while boasting an ERA in the 5.00s. This eventually led to him being left off the post season roster for the World Champs. Nearing 33, he certainly isn't old and he did manage 150 Ks in not quite 200 IP & a reasonable .250 AA but that also came with a bloated WHIP. The Giants can parade him out there all they want until they see the light and cut their losses but I don't like what I see coming down this track.

Closer

RHP Brian Wilson - Wilson continued to establish himself as one of baseball's most elite closers in 2010 sending hitters back to the dugout not being able to sing "I Get Around" after facing him. Achieving career highs with 48 saves, 1.81 ERA & 93 Ks in only 74-2/3 IP. His other pertinent stats were also exceptional. The fly in the ointment is he's nursing a strained oblique muscle which is keeping him from the pitcher's mound this spring & a recent catch session was cut short. Opening the season on the DL is a possibility but he's vowing to be there when the bell rings. I'd love to believe him and there are very few closers that have his skill set & at the prime of their careers. I'll have to wait and see but past history has told me to stay away from any player who has the hint of a lingering injury. When 100%, I don't know if there are any closers I'd choose over him.  

Lineup

1. CF Andres Torres - In his 1st full season of ABs, 2010 showed the Giants what Torres is capable of by scoring 84 runs with 16 HRs, 63 RBIs & 26 steals. The only area lagging behind is his very career like .268 BA. That tells me he's mastered all parts of his game except for using his speed to get more leg hits. We can expect 2011 should at least raise that average into the mid .270s-.280 and most of us will take that from a lead off hitter who can add almost 20 round trippers and 30 steals. I see another step in his maturation as the Giants fire starter and a quality 3rd outfielder for a fantasy team if he can be consistent which is something that did elude his 2010 play.

2. 2B Freddy Sanchez - Sanchez spent a good portion of the last two seasons with injuries but still managed to show for 431 ABs in 2010. 5 years removed from hitting .344 as a NL batting champ, shoulder surgery may further affect his 2011 play. I don't know if this spring's .239 BA is a tell but I tend to think not as he has 2 HRs & 7 RBIs. Though this is the rarefied air of the Cactus League, this says his shoulder is just fine, thank you. The drawback in his game is that for a middle infielder he doesn't steal bases topping out at 5 in 2009. I don't think he'll ever get near a batting title again and may also never hit .300. At 33, he's also not going to hit more than a handful of HRs and drive in less than 50 RBIs. Even as a #2 hitter for most of his career, he doesn't score a lot of runs and I don't think he'll top the mid-60s this year. With what you can expect from him, I'd say his value is as a very last starting 2nd baseman if you waited too long to fill this roster position and I don't value him much more as a back up middle infielder either. Add a possible injury cropping up as has been his recent history & I'm staying away.

 

3. 1B Aubrey Huff - Huff was 1 of 2 Giants that I can call a savior of my 2010 season which allowed me to win my league championship (like the Giants surprisingly did). I can't recall if I drafted him late or picked him off the FA scrap heap early but his production bolstered my offensive stats greatly. No team wanted him at the beginning of last year but the Giants took a chance and were handsomely rewarded at a bargain basement price. Seeming to laugh age in the face while playing with the enthusiasm of a younger player, he's only two years removed from a monster season with the Orioles. A slight hiccup in 2009 sent all potential suitors scurrying away but he came back strong in 2010 with a .290 BA, 26 HRs & 86 RBIs. All of this was done in a park not known to be kind to power hitters. He even threw 7 stolen bases in for good measure. I'm not going to dismiss him so easily when draft time comes rolling around this year and if what he's done this spring (5 HRs/14 RBIs/.380 BA) is an indicator (& I think it is), he qualifies as a solid middle of the pack starting 1B or the top of the corner infielder heap. I doubt he'll retain eligibility at 3rd but might in the OF further raising his value.

 

4. C Buster Posey - Here's the other guy who pulled my fat out of the 2010 fire. I'm almost certain he went undrafted but I had my eye on him from the beginning and as soon as the Giants made noises about starting him, I jumped with both feet. You know the rest of the story and it is one of the biggest in MLB for 2010. I seriously doubt the Giants would have made a World Series appearance let alone win it without him. In 405 ABs, this rookie who has the cool of a 10 year veteran cracked 18 HRs, drove in 67 while hitting .305. He won't be had so cheaply in 2011 as this could be a monster offensive year for this already polished hitter. I'm not afraid to rank him #1 among MLB catchers and will be extremely disappointed if someone beats me to him in the draft.

 

5. 3B Pablo Sandoval - Some say he may slot as low as 7 in this batting order but that's absurd. You don't do that with a quality MLB hitter in a lineup that needs continuity. Sure, he had quite a regression in 2010 (only his 2nd year as a full timer) from the big numbers he put up in 2009. I'm going to say that will be a small bump on his resume that can probably be attributed to him thinking "boy, this is easy" after 2009 and not being in playing shape all of last year. He seems to have learned quickly dropping 35 pounds in the off season & hitting with the exuberance & authority he showed in 2009. 25-30 HRs with 90 RBIs are more than reachable with an average in the .280s & 80 runs scored. I'm going to say he'll be back with a vengeance in 2011 and post numbers that few MLB 3rd basemen will be able to match.

6. SS Miguel Tejada - His MVP skills from the Oakland & Baltimore years are long gone and he's nearing 37. Tejada is still a viable hitter from the SS position and is capable of hitting 15-20 HRs, driving in 70-80 and hitting at least .270. You won't get any steals but he might score 70 runs as well. He also might get plenty of pitches to hit as he's advantageously positioned between Sandoval and Burrell in the lineup. If you don't need steals from your SS, Tejada still qualifies as a decent mid-pack starter for a fantasy team.

 

7. LF Pat Burrell - If it was me, I'd probably flip Burrell in the order with Ross but here's where he'll probably start. Pat "The Bat" reached a semblance of his Phillie heydays in 2010 with 20 HRs and 64 RBIs in 373 ABs. I guess he figured out there's no place like Citizens Bank Park to hit in. Going back over his numbers, I'm amazed to find he hit 30 or more HRs in 4 separate years with the Phils. Well, that won't happen by the bay. Most are expecting a big year from Burrell but I think he'll hit 25 at most and the other numbers from 2010 (including a BA around .250) will stay status quo. Fine for a last outfielder to fill your roster but no more.

8. RF Cody Ross - Ross has just incurred a right calf strain which will keep him out of action for at least 3 weeks. That's bad news for either him or Burrell (we'll discuss this a little later) but good news for the Giants (what???). Brought over from the Marlins to add more punch to the bottom of this lineup in 2010, he didn't do much for the Giants in the regular season but was the NLCS MVP after his power display in the playoffs for San Francisco. I doubt the fans or management will forget that anytime soon so expect him to fit in somewhere when he's ready to play. In a full season with the Giants, I think he can crank 20 HRs or so, drive in 70 and hit just under .270. He might also get double digit steals as he swiped 9 in 2010. OK for a last outfield roster spot but the injury to start the season will keep me away. 

 

Possibilities

OF Brandon Belt - I think this could be the Buster Posey story of 2011 for the Giants. Though a 1st baseman by trade he's played some outfield this spring. Without a Major League AB to his credit, the Cody Ross injury opens the door for him a little wider. He could replace Ross in right, move to LF if Burrell proves ineffective or play 1st while Ross is out and Huff moving to the grass patrol. Why? Re-adjusting his swing in 2010, he moved from A ball through AAA showing great ability to hit for average and power with great plate discipline. I'm fairly certain he'll join the big club as the season opens now that Ross won't and he's carried his 2010 advancement over to a strong spring showing. Watch this closely and if he starts to pound the ball from a regular position in the lineup, don't take too long to grab him up.

RHP Ryan Vogelsong - If & when the Giants finally decide to cut their losses and move on by dumping Zito, Vogelsong might be the 1st in line. The ex-Pirate of 4 years returns to the team that 1st signed him and looks like he's finally figured it out. Never having shown the promise he was expected to deliver, he's turned it completely around this spring. With 3 starts in 5 appearances covering 15-2/3 IP, he's struck out 14, holds a 2.87 ERA & .211 AA. If he doesn't win the final spot in the bullpen, he'll have to continue this rebirth in the minors for his chance at a starting spot.

MLB Fantasy Jump Start - San Diego Padres

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Rotation

1. RHP Mat Latos - All SD pitchers are greatly helped by the fact that Petco Park is the toughest place in MLB for hitters. That being said, the negative is that the SD offense is one of the lightest hitting teams as well so wins may be hard to come by. In just 2 MLB seasons, Latos has established himself as the ace of this staff. After a somewhat lukewarm rookie season in 2009 covering 10 starts, he turned on the jets in 31 2010 trips to the mound. Winning 14 with a 2.92 ERA, a .217 AA (average against) & 1.08 WHIP, this All-Star also added 189 Ks for a 9.2 K per 9 IP ratio. Given the home park, I think he's just scratched the surface of what is possible. He might not win close to 20 games until the Padres invest some time & money in acquiring hitters but an improvement to at least 16 wins with all the rest of the numbers at the same level and perhaps 200 Ks is probable for 2011. He's been knocked around to the tune of a spring 9.00 ERA and he's taking a bit of time finding his control but the Cactus League isn't Petco Park. A fairly high #2 fantasy starter.

2. LHP Clayton Richard - Taking into account all the factors I mentioned above, the ex-White Sox found himself in his 3rd big league season last year. Registering 14 wins also, with a solid 3.75 ERA, his AA was higher than Latos & he sported a rather ugly WHIP. He's more of a finesse lefty who won't get high K numbers and spent a good portion of 2010 on most fantasy free agent wires. Still, if he can duplicate or improve on his numbers from last season, he's more than opening day fantasy roster worthy. He will have games where he'll get bounced around as Richard does have the tendency to give up a lot of hits and walks and is very susceptible to the long ball. For a fantasy #4 or #5 starter, he'll do just fine.

3. RHP Tim Stauffer - Stauffer is currently nursing a sore right hip flexor and may have returned to the spring mound a bit early on 3/13. He's been scratched from his scheduled 3/18 start so that sounds a bit disconcerting. He did OK in a 3/23 start so perhaps he's good to go. Coming off a 2010 where he pitched to a 1.85 ERA in 7 starts and logged very good AA & WHIP numbers, he's been inserted into the middle of the rotation to begin 2011. Though a better strikeout pitcher than Richard, he won't wow you with those totals. Though slotted as the #3 guy in San Diego, I'm not convinced he'll be able to duplicate his sterling 2010 numbers over a full season in the rotation. That being said, he could fill out the last spot among your fantasy starters if you're prone to gambling. It could work out well.

 

4. RHP Aaron Harang - Here's where the picture gets a little unclear. Some sources have Harang out of the 5 man rotation & Moseley in this spot but I hardly think San Diego would spend the time and money to bring Harang in over the off season to sit him down. Posting back to back 200 K seasons in 2006 & 2007 with the Reds, it has been a precipitous fall ever since. While he still has a fair ability to amass strikeouts, his ERA topped out at 5.32 last year and he's lost 17 & 14 games in 2008 & 2009 respectively. He's still finding the going rough with a spring ERA of 5.02. Though pitching in Great American Ballpark is the opposite of Petco, you'd be taking too big a risk clearing an opening day roster spot for him without seeing some positive results 1st. I would monitor what he does in San Diego & if he shows signs of his former dominance, grab him up before someone else does.

 

5. LHP Cory Luebke - Both Wade LeBlanc & RHP Dustin Moseley are being considered for this spot also but they've been getting torched this spring & don't appear to have the stuff to get MLB hitters out on a regular basis. My vote goes to Luebke. He showed a decent 4.08 ERA in 3 late 2010 starts but his more than 1 K per IP ratio woke a lot of people up. Though his spring ERA is 4.96 & he's only started in 1 of 5 appearances as of this writing, the other spring numbers show improvement already. A .234 AA & 1.16 WHIP means this prospect with command of three pitches is on the right track and I'm getting on board at the 1st stop (which might be the SD rotation to begin 2011). He's again struck out 17 in 16-1/3 spring innings so we know his heater is ready for the majors and I'm guessing his introduction to MLB in 2010 was atypical of what we can expect going forward. It makes little sense to draft him unless you know for sure he'll begin the season in the rotation but as soon as I get a hint that will happen, I'll go after him.

Closer

RHP Heath Bell (closer) - No uncertainty here as Bell not only cranked out more than 40 saves for the 2nd year in a row but only blew 3 while converting a monster 47 2010 save chances. Adding an equally impressive 11 K per 9 IP ratio, a 1.93 ERA & you've got an elite closer. As San Diego will be tough for any visiting hitters, it will be almost impossible to snag wins away once Bell marches in. Though he's been cuffed this spring (11.57 ERA) & is dealing with a strained left calf, his 8 Ks in 4-2/3 innings tells me he's ready to roll. I would consider him as the 1st closer to come off the draft board.

Lineup

1. RF Will Venable - Some say Maybin will occupy the lead off spot when the season starts but I don't. Venable probably spent more time on and off fantasy rosters in 2010 than anyone else. A prototypical #1 hitter with the added value of some genuine power, 2011 may be his coming out party. He did recently miss 3 spring games with a sore left side and that does cause concern with speed so much a part of his game. Also of note is a career .256 BA which won't cut it in the top spot of the order. I still look at his 2010 29 steals, 13 HRs & 51 RBIs and think this has the makings of a quality MLB hitter. He's pounding the ball at a spring .308 clip with 2 HRs, 9 RBIs, 8 runs scored & 4 steals in 39 ABs. That tells me he's ready to take the next step. I wouldn't hesitate to grab him for one of my last outfield roster spots.

2. 2B Orlando Hudson - There is also some groundswell that Bartlett will be #2 but Hudson is much better suited in this role. With his switch hitting traveling shoes on again, he joins his 4th different team in as many years. For Hudson, it is all about the money that has incurred his suitcase to be packed so often but there also may be a fact that teams he leaves think they can find a better way to fill their 2nd base slot. 2010 in Minnesota was nothing to write home about with the Twins (.268/6 HRs/37 RBIs/10 SB/80 runs scored) & at 33, a decline seems to have begun. Still being a top quality defender won't win you many points with fantasy owners unless errors count against you so if he doesn't step up his offensive game, he'll find no takers. Moving to Petco doesn't exactly bode well but he is hitting .350 this spring so there could be some hope for 2011. I'm going to put him at the lower end of starting 2nd basemen for fantasy purposes but he's better suited as a back up middle infielder.

 

3. LF Ryan Ludwick - Ludwick couldn't have been happy going from the heart of a powerful lineup in a decent hitters park in St. Louis to being asked to provide most of the brawn as the main man in a slugger's Death Valley. The Padres are very short on power and while he did have a decent 2010 split among those two teams, it is very unlikely he'll ever come close to the monster numbers he put up with the Cards in 2008. With virtually no protection in the SD lineup, opposing pitchers will probably not give him many fat pitches to tee off on. I can see a 2011 with 20+ HRs, 75-80 RBIs and a .260 BA which might land him as a final outfielder on a fantasy roster but until the Padres import some proven hitters or develop some young rocket launchers, Ludwick may feel this is a hitters purgatory.

4. 1B Brad Hawpe - Taking over for a departed Adrian Gonzalez may be the least favorable job in baseball. With the heart and lifeblood of the Padre attack torn out, the unenviable task falls to ex-Rockie Hawpe. No one is expecting him to even get close to what Gonzalez provided for San Diego and his 2010 shared between the Rocks and the Rays was a definite and clear decline from the previous 4 solid seasons. Can we blame the uncertainty and transitional state of his travels last year or is this the beginning of the end for Hawpe? While it may be too early to write off this soon to be 32 year old, the odds of his move to Petco don't look good. I don't think his hitting skills are gone and we can expect a 20 HR/80 RBI season with a batting average around his career .279. If he also qualifies at OF as well as 1B eligibility, that always enhances a player's roster spot value. I do think there's a place for him on an opening day squad as a back up utility hitter who could find his way into your daily lineup more often than not.

   

5. 3B Chase Headley - I, along with the entire Padre management, are still awaiting the year when Headley's potential will manifest itself in an all around solid performance. He's hinted at that and gotten out of the gate quickly the last 2 years but invariably falls short when you review the overall seasonal numbers. If he can harness his talent  & put it all together, 20+ HRs, 80 RBIs & a .270-.280 range BA is at least possible. You would think the 1st step would be better plate discipline but his K numbers have not so shockingly gone up for the last 3 years. Well, there is an inkling of improvement in that area this spring as he's struck out an average of less than once in every 5 trips to the plate. He's also carrying a .417 BA but many things change when going from Arizona to Petco Park. He'd probably be better off trying to change his approach to a line drive hitter as his power potential would yield more HRs attacking the ball in this fashion. As much as I like his ability, I can't spare a roster spot until the light comes on.

   

6. C Nick Hundley - The bottom 3 in this order could slot in any way but I think Hundley fits in here. With more power potential than most catchers, Hundley has been given the starting nod entering 2011. He's never amassed more than 273 ABs in any 1 season but might in 2011 if he shows some offensive prowess. That has been slow to come with a career .242 average. I will again say his torrid spring average of .467 can't be used as a yardstick in Petco but a chance to prove himself may provide results this year. Not draft worthy at this point but definitely someone to keep an eye on and see what develops.

7. CF Cameron Maybin - No longer the hot prospect at 23, this former Tiger farm hand and Marlin hope has yet to show anything at the Major League level. A career .246, he did flash some power with 8 2010 HRs & showcased his speed with 9 steals in 291 ABs. This is not nearly what was expected of him and I can't see anything good coming from a switch to Petco as he's never really taken advantage of his speed to get more hits. He is hitting .379 this spring with 2 HRs & should get regular ABs in 2011 but I can't buy in before I see an obvious turnaround appear.

8. SS Jason Bartlett - This ex-Twin & Tampa Bay Ray will have to show he can hit and get on base before the Padres insert him into an action spot in the order. While it is entirely possible he could lead off or bat 2nd, I think Bud Black wants to see improvement over last year before a change is made. Keep in mind that the possibility for hitting success has surfaced before as he's had as many as 14 HRs, 66 RBIs & displayed a .320 season average before. I don't think anyone expects him to hit more than a handful of HRs in 2011 or approach his RBI high but he could recapture his hitting stroke and match his 2009 SB total of 30. He might be a watch list candidate but there's better SS options on draft day for now. 

 


Possibilities 


RHP Ernesto Frieri - Unfortunately for the Padres most of their Major League ready talent lies in starting pitching with recently demoted Simon Castro & this 25 year old Columbian bazooka. Appearing in 33 2010 games, he posted a big league 1.71 ERA with 41 Ks in 31-2/3 innings to go along with a microscopic AA and WHIP. With the rotation well represented, he'll probably be in the San Diego pen again in 2011 but if anything happens to Bell or the Padres decide to deal him to another team before the trade deadline, Frieri looks like a transition to closer won't have the Padres missing a step. 

OF Aaron Cunningham - With a dearth of hitting prospects ready to play in the Majors, Cunningham is almost assured of an opening day roster spot. The former Oakland A hit .288 in 132 2010 ABs with the Padres. He's not known for power so we might disregard his 2 Cactus League round trippers so far to go along with 8 RBIs. Speed is his game and he's already swiped 3 this spring. If Venable doesn't work out or Maybin fails to produce again, he might be in line for a chance to start.


OF Mike Baxter - Not showing much in an 8 AB "cup of coffee" with San Diego in 2010, he's been hot this spring. At 26, he's no longer a prospect but carries a heavier HR bat than Cunningham and that's what is sorely needed in San Diego. Probably beginning 2011 in the minors, he might get the call up if he continues swinging a hot bat there. The Padres have very little to choose from in the way of an offensive infusion so any hint of a potent bat will send management scurrying his way.

MLB Fantasy Jump Start - Los Angeles Dodgers

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Rotation

1. LHP Clayton Kershaw - It has only taken Kershaw three seasons to climb to the top of the Dodger starting staff. Very impressive for only 85 starting appearances. He's been very solid the last 2 with at least 30 games started in each of those years and no higher than a 2.91 ERA. So why has he only won 8 & 13 games respectively? Part of the reason is he usually throws a lot of pitches in his starts and has only averaged a flat 6 innings pitched in those 62 2009 & 2010 starts. The length of his average game stay is increasing as he matures to the point that his average for 2010 was 6-1/3 innings. It is unlikely that will change much more as he strikes out and walks a lot of batters during a typical game. He has a top of the line K ratio and it is amazing his ERA & WHIP remain so low with all the free passes he hands out. His control should get better as he's only 23 now. If the Dodger bullpen stabilizes a bit more in 2011, there's no reason he shouldn't keep all his fine numbers plus collect 16-17 wins. A #1 fantasy starter but not at the elite tier yet.

 

2. RHP Chad Billingsley - This heralded Dodger prospect seems to have been pushed to the background with the emergence of Kershaw. Still only 26, his numbers compare favorably with Kershaw & HE HAS WON as many as 16 in a season. His career 3.55 ERA look great unless you put it next to his rotation mate & while his K rate isn't as strong as Kershaw's, he has surpassed a K per inning rate once (2008) and can easily do so again. He also throws a lot of pitches in a game and has about the same staying power as Kershaw. Moving to #2 in the rotation may alleviate some of the pressure he feels to perform & he could return to that 2008 form (though he's been pitching very well through  his whole Dodger life) this year. He may not have the K totals Kershaw puts up but he'll come close to matching him in the other pertinent categories and win 18 or so. I'd slot him as a mid #3 starter for 2011.

 

3. LHP Ted Lilly - Another Dodger starter who's carried a sterling ERA over the past two years. Turning it on in 2009 & 2010, he slashed his career ERA of 4.18 to the low and mid 3.00s. He went 7-4 with a 3.52 ERA after coming over from the Cubs last year. He's also no slouch in the K department (but not the whiff machine Kershaw & Billingsley are) but gets by on pitches other than his fastball. He's always posted very good average against numbers but has whittled his WHIP down to around 1.00 over that 2 year span. All the Dodger starters do have the advantage of throwing half their games in a notorious pitchers park so that may account for some of these fantastic numbers but Lilly seems to be getting better with age. Though he's been batted around this spring (10.50 ERA in 6 IP), he should be fine when the season begins. A good mid-level #5 starter for a fantasy team.

   

4. RHP Hiroki Kuroda - Most MLB teams wish they could go 4 deep in their rotation with this kind of quality. Again qualifying that Dodger Stadium is where a Major League pitcher wants to throw, Kuroda's 3 seasons with Big Blue since coming over from Japan show strikingly similar stats to their other starting hurlers. Averaging a little over 9 wins per season, a 3.60 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP & a .247 average against, he also falls in line with Billingsley as to K ratio. Resembling the rest of the staff averaging 6 innings per start in his MLB career, I can only conclude that not being able to go deeper into games and therefore relying on their bullpen has cost the Dodger starters their win totals. This may also be true in 2011. I rank Kuroda a little better on the totem pole than Lilly as a fantasy #5 starter.

 

5. RHP John Ely - Ely joins the rotation after a less than stellar rookie campaign in 2010. In 18 starts he won 4 games to a bloated ERA of 5.49. He's in there due to the injuries sustained by Jon Garland & Vicente Padilla. They both could be out awhile but at least a month. Though a ground ball pitcher with a decent K ratio, he gives up the Home Run ball far too regularly and that's not an easy feat at Dodger Stadium. I'd stay far away here but since we're on the subject of Jon Garland....he did win 14 in cavernous Petco Park while sporting a career best 3.47 ERA. History points to his much higher 4.32 along with miserable average against and WHIP numbers to create a detonation device just looking for a place to explode. Not having much strikeout ability to boot, I can't understand why teams love to have him on their staff. I guess he's the proverbial "innings eater" who'll usually hang around long enough to sometimes get the win. Don't forget that in addition to the 14 wins last year, he also lost 12. When he's ready to come back it is "buyer beware" & I'm not going to that store.

Closer

RHP Jonathan Broxton - The usually automatic Broxton was so shaky during part of 2010 that he was actually demoted for a time. So what could have happened? Well, 1st of all he's always blown a lot of saves (21 in the last three years). You can't argue with his almost unreal K ratio but now as he nears 27, carrying that 300 pounds on a 6'-4" build might be part of the endurance problem as the summer drags on. 2010 also revealed a high .270 average against and a bloated 1.48 WHIP which is nothing close to anything he's sported before. He'll be back in the saddle again when Los Angeles opens the regular season but he's carried a miserable 6.75 ERA this spring which may be an omen of things to come in 2011. The Dodgers won't hesitate to replace him in that role again if he stumbles & they have at least two or three viable candidates (LHP Hong-Chih Kuo & RHP Mike MacDougal are 2 & I'll mention the other later). He's certainly a closer who should be drafted but I'm ranking him way too low to get him (by design) as I'm afraid he'll implode again this year.

Lineup

1. SS Rafael Furcal - When he's on the field, he's the spark plug that makes the Dodger offense go and perhaps part of the reason LA missed the playoffs is he missed significant time in 2010 to injuries. In 97 games, he still managed to steal 22 bags & hit .300 so his skills don't seem to have been compromised so far. He also played in only 38 games in 2008 so he's no stranger to the DL. At 33, it's unclear if another ailment looms around the corner in 2011 so if you select him, you'd better have a good back up plan. If he plays a full season, he'll hit close to .300 again, steal close to 30 bases and perhaps even score 100 runs. That's worthy of a good starting  SS for fantasy purposes but caution is advised.

2. 1B James Loney - How the lineup shakes out since Casey Blake begins the season with a sore back and probably not ready for opening day is a guess but I look for Loney in the #2 hole. You know the story here: a career .288 hitter who drives in 80-90 runs in a good year & could hit double digit steals but doesn't have the HR power you look for in a 1st bagger (15 is his best total). I don't expect this to change in 2011 but a swollen knee this spring raises the warning flag as that could also affect his ability to leg out doubles and steal those bases. In my mind, I wouldn't go after him as my 1st base starter & he'll be long gone by the time I get around to seeking him out as a back up corner infielder.

3. RF Andre Ethier - Ethier was counted on to be the main power plant in LA but that didn't materialize to Dodger expectations in 2010. After smacking 31 round trippers and driving 106 in 2009, he regressed quite a bit last year with 23 & 82 in those respective categories. Curiously, the average went up 20 points close to his career .291 so what can we expect in 2011? I think somewhere in between the last 2 is a good yard stick (27 HRs/91 RBIs & an average a little lower at .280). Good enough to draft him fairly high (a #2 or #3) on the outfield pecking order.

4. CF Matt Kemp - All hype aside, it does now appear that Kemp is overall the Dodgers best offensive weapon. After a stellar campaign in 2009, he was expected to put up MVP type stats in 2010. While that didn't happen and he actually dropped back in most of the numbers, his year was nothing to sneeze at (28 HRs/89 RBIs/19 steals) other than the huge 48 point drop in BA. I do think he'll rebound to numbers closely resembling a fantasy player slotted in the middle of the 1st round by most experts last year to hit close to .300 with 36 HRs, over 100 RBIs & steals in the mid 20s. A high 2nd round pick at worst.

 

5. 3B Juan Uribe - Will probably slot in the #2 spot with Loney here when Blake returns but I am constantly amazed at the production Uribe gives with a swing that can best be described as undisciplined. At 33 and playing for the World Champion San Francisco Giants last year, he belted out a career high 24 HRs and 85 RBIs in a park not condusive to cheap power. I honestly don't know what to make out of this because he certainly doesn't look like he's in shape carrying 230 pounds on a 5'-11" frame. He'll find the sledding a bit harder in LA and I'll predict 14 HRs, 66 RBIs and a typical .250 BA. Far below 2010 stats but still good for a lower end starting 2nd baseman as most others will have less power but a higher BA and steals as well. If he hangs on long enough to gain eligibility at 3rd, that's a plus. Go figure.

6. LF Jay Gibbons/Marcus Thames - This platoon should drift down to the 7th spot after Blake comes back and neither is worthy of being drafted on their own merits. Thames can hit left handed pitching and provide some power (I'd say 12 HRs/40 RBIs & a .270 BA) & Gibbons is a long way from the Oriole power hitting prospect that hit more than 23 HRs three times from 2002-2005 (he even drove in 100 RBIs in 2003). He did hit .280 last year but that combined with about the same power totals I projected for Thames won't win either a roster spot.

7. 2B Jamey Carroll - Moving over to 2nd while Uribe mans 3rd in Blake's absence, Carroll is a career journeyman/utility player. He has a surprising .276 BA and can steal double digit bases in a season but will be out as soon as Blake is ready to go. As long as we're here, when Casey Blake returns to 3rd, it shouldn't be to much fanfare. Hitting at a career .264 (he did worse in 2010 at .248), he might hit 20 HRs & garner 70 RBIs. Perhaps a good in-season FA pick up if he gets hot for awhile, or a back up corner infielder if you missed the boat on that earlier in your draft.

8. C Rod Barajas - Coming over from the Mets in mid-season last year, the Dodgers must have been planning to let Russell Martin go this off season all along. He does have enough occasional power to hit about 20 in a best case scenario but won't drive in many runs (he did get to 71 once). He'll also drag your team average down plowing along at about .240. If you need to add some homers from a 2nd catcher's position, this might be OK to fill out your fantasy roster but for me, the bad outweighs the good.

Possibilities

2B Ivan De Jesus Jr. - Son of the former Major Leaguer of the same name, he didn't get a September call up last year. With not much power but capable of hitting .300 at the major league level, he also gets on base and can score runs. A SS by trade, he could be groomed to replace Furcal or Uribe depending on who falls apart 1st.

OF Xavier Paul - Paul is finally showing some of the power & speed the Dodgers expected to see from him. After 2 unremarkable call ups in 2009 & 2010, he's hit at a .293 clip in 41 spring at bats with 2 HRs. At 26, his chances to break through may be very limited but with left field far from settled, he could squeeze in this year.

LHP Kenley Jansen - This is the one I think should be groomed for the closer's role if Broxton can't keep it together. Somewhat similar in stature to Broxton at 6'-5", he's a much better physical specimen at 255 pounds. Able to throw premium gas from the pump of his right arm, he was barely touched in his 1st big league exposure of 25 2010 games. When called upon, he converted all 4 of his save chances striking out 41 in 27 innings with an 0.67 ERA, .130 average against & 1.00 WHIP. This K machine might be the next big splash in the ranks of MLB closers.

Rubby De La Rosa - It may be a bit premature to sound the trumpets on him yet but I feel this is the next entry into the Dodgers rotation. Never having any time in the bigs, his 1st spring in 2011 shows a 1.80 ERA in 4 games (2 starts) with 7 Ks in 10 IP. He's also baffling hitters with a 0.70 WHIP & .125 average against. With a fastball that touches 95 & an 84-86 MPH hard change up, this slim 170 pounder who just turned 20 has the stuff to Rub(by) hitters the wrong way. Look for him soon but perhaps not this year.