SAN DIEGO PADRES
Rotation
1. RHP Mat Latos - All SD pitchers are greatly helped by the fact that Petco Park is the toughest place in MLB for hitters. That being said, the negative is that the SD offense is one of the lightest hitting teams as well so wins may be hard to come by. In just 2 MLB seasons, Latos has established himself as the ace of this staff. After a somewhat lukewarm rookie season in 2009 covering 10 starts, he turned on the jets in 31 2010 trips to the mound. Winning 14 with a 2.92 ERA, a .217 AA (average against) & 1.08 WHIP, this All-Star also added 189 Ks for a 9.2 K per 9 IP ratio. Given the home park, I think he's just scratched the surface of what is possible. He might not win close to 20 games until the Padres invest some time & money in acquiring hitters but an improvement to at least 16 wins with all the rest of the numbers at the same level and perhaps 200 Ks is probable for 2011. He's been knocked around to the tune of a spring 9.00 ERA and he's taking a bit of time finding his control but the Cactus League isn't Petco Park. A fairly high #2 fantasy starter.
2. LHP Clayton Richard - Taking into account all the factors I mentioned above, the ex-White Sox found himself in his 3rd big league season last year. Registering 14 wins also, with a solid 3.75 ERA, his AA was higher than Latos & he sported a rather ugly WHIP. He's more of a finesse lefty who won't get high K numbers and spent a good portion of 2010 on most fantasy free agent wires. Still, if he can duplicate or improve on his numbers from last season, he's more than opening day fantasy roster worthy. He will have games where he'll get bounced around as Richard does have the tendency to give up a lot of hits and walks and is very susceptible to the long ball. For a fantasy #4 or #5 starter, he'll do just fine.
3. RHP Tim Stauffer - Stauffer is currently nursing a sore right hip flexor and may have returned to the spring mound a bit early on 3/13. He's been scratched from his scheduled 3/18 start so that sounds a bit disconcerting. He did OK in a 3/23 start so perhaps he's good to go. Coming off a 2010 where he pitched to a 1.85 ERA in 7 starts and logged very good AA & WHIP numbers, he's been inserted into the middle of the rotation to begin 2011. Though a better strikeout pitcher than Richard, he won't wow you with those totals. Though slotted as the #3 guy in San Diego, I'm not convinced he'll be able to duplicate his sterling 2010 numbers over a full season in the rotation. That being said, he could fill out the last spot among your fantasy starters if you're prone to gambling. It could work out well.
4. RHP Aaron Harang - Here's where the picture gets a little unclear. Some sources have Harang out of the 5 man rotation & Moseley in this spot but I hardly think San Diego would spend the time and money to bring Harang in over the off season to sit him down. Posting back to back 200 K seasons in 2006 & 2007 with the Reds, it has been a precipitous fall ever since. While he still has a fair ability to amass strikeouts, his ERA topped out at 5.32 last year and he's lost 17 & 14 games in 2008 & 2009 respectively. He's still finding the going rough with a spring ERA of 5.02. Though pitching in Great American Ballpark is the opposite of Petco, you'd be taking too big a risk clearing an opening day roster spot for him without seeing some positive results 1st. I would monitor what he does in San Diego & if he shows signs of his former dominance, grab him up before someone else does.
5. LHP Cory Luebke - Both Wade LeBlanc & RHP Dustin Moseley are being considered for this spot also but they've been getting torched this spring & don't appear to have the stuff to get MLB hitters out on a regular basis. My vote goes to Luebke. He showed a decent 4.08 ERA in 3 late 2010 starts but his more than 1 K per IP ratio woke a lot of people up. Though his spring ERA is 4.96 & he's only started in 1 of 5 appearances as of this writing, the other spring numbers show improvement already. A .234 AA & 1.16 WHIP means this prospect with command of three pitches is on the right track and I'm getting on board at the 1st stop (which might be the SD rotation to begin 2011). He's again struck out 17 in 16-1/3 spring innings so we know his heater is ready for the majors and I'm guessing his introduction to MLB in 2010 was atypical of what we can expect going forward. It makes little sense to draft him unless you know for sure he'll begin the season in the rotation but as soon as I get a hint that will happen, I'll go after him.
Closer
RHP Heath Bell (closer) - No uncertainty here as Bell not only cranked out more than 40 saves for the 2nd year in a row but only blew 3 while converting a monster 47 2010 save chances. Adding an equally impressive 11 K per 9 IP ratio, a 1.93 ERA & you've got an elite closer. As San Diego will be tough for any visiting hitters, it will be almost impossible to snag wins away once Bell marches in. Though he's been cuffed this spring (11.57 ERA) & is dealing with a strained left calf, his 8 Ks in 4-2/3 innings tells me he's ready to roll. I would consider him as the 1st closer to come off the draft board.
1. RF Will Venable - Some say Maybin will occupy the lead off spot when the season starts but I don't. Venable probably spent more time on and off fantasy rosters in 2010 than anyone else. A prototypical #1 hitter with the added value of some genuine power, 2011 may be his coming out party. He did recently miss 3 spring games with a sore left side and that does cause concern with speed so much a part of his game. Also of note is a career .256 BA which won't cut it in the top spot of the order. I still look at his 2010 29 steals, 13 HRs & 51 RBIs and think this has the makings of a quality MLB hitter. He's pounding the ball at a spring .308 clip with 2 HRs, 9 RBIs, 8 runs scored & 4 steals in 39 ABs. That tells me he's ready to take the next step. I wouldn't hesitate to grab him for one of my last outfield roster spots.
2. 2B Orlando Hudson - There is also some groundswell that Bartlett will be #2 but Hudson is much better suited in this role. With his switch hitting traveling shoes on again, he joins his 4th different team in as many years. For Hudson, it is all about the money that has incurred his suitcase to be packed so often but there also may be a fact that teams he leaves think they can find a better way to fill their 2nd base slot. 2010 in Minnesota was nothing to write home about with the Twins (.268/6 HRs/37 RBIs/10 SB/80 runs scored) & at 33, a decline seems to have begun. Still being a top quality defender won't win you many points with fantasy owners unless errors count against you so if he doesn't step up his offensive game, he'll find no takers. Moving to Petco doesn't exactly bode well but he is hitting .350 this spring so there could be some hope for 2011. I'm going to put him at the lower end of starting 2nd basemen for fantasy purposes but he's better suited as a back up middle infielder.
3. LF Ryan Ludwick - Ludwick couldn't have been happy going from the heart of a powerful lineup in a decent hitters park in St. Louis to being asked to provide most of the brawn as the main man in a slugger's Death Valley. The Padres are very short on power and while he did have a decent 2010 split among those two teams, it is very unlikely he'll ever come close to the monster numbers he put up with the Cards in 2008. With virtually no protection in the SD lineup, opposing pitchers will probably not give him many fat pitches to tee off on. I can see a 2011 with 20+ HRs, 75-80 RBIs and a .260 BA which might land him as a final outfielder on a fantasy roster but until the Padres import some proven hitters or develop some young rocket launchers, Ludwick may feel this is a hitters purgatory.
4. 1B Brad Hawpe - Taking over for a departed Adrian Gonzalez may be the least favorable job in baseball. With the heart and lifeblood of the Padre attack torn out, the unenviable task falls to ex-Rockie Hawpe. No one is expecting him to even get close to what Gonzalez provided for San Diego and his 2010 shared between the Rocks and the Rays was a definite and clear decline from the previous 4 solid seasons. Can we blame the uncertainty and transitional state of his travels last year or is this the beginning of the end for Hawpe? While it may be too early to write off this soon to be 32 year old, the odds of his move to Petco don't look good. I don't think his hitting skills are gone and we can expect a 20 HR/80 RBI season with a batting average around his career .279. If he also qualifies at OF as well as 1B eligibility, that always enhances a player's roster spot value. I do think there's a place for him on an opening day squad as a back up utility hitter who could find his way into your daily lineup more often than not.
5. 3B Chase Headley - I, along with the entire Padre management, are still awaiting the year when Headley's potential will manifest itself in an all around solid performance. He's hinted at that and gotten out of the gate quickly the last 2 years but invariably falls short when you review the overall seasonal numbers. If he can harness his talent & put it all together, 20+ HRs, 80 RBIs & a .270-.280 range BA is at least possible. You would think the 1st step would be better plate discipline but his K numbers have not so shockingly gone up for the last 3 years. Well, there is an inkling of improvement in that area this spring as he's struck out an average of less than once in every 5 trips to the plate. He's also carrying a .417 BA but many things change when going from Arizona to Petco Park. He'd probably be better off trying to change his approach to a line drive hitter as his power potential would yield more HRs attacking the ball in this fashion. As much as I like his ability, I can't spare a roster spot until the light comes on.
6. C Nick Hundley - The bottom 3 in this order could slot in any way but I think Hundley fits in here. With more power potential than most catchers, Hundley has been given the starting nod entering 2011. He's never amassed more than 273 ABs in any 1 season but might in 2011 if he shows some offensive prowess. That has been slow to come with a career .242 average. I will again say his torrid spring average of .467 can't be used as a yardstick in Petco but a chance to prove himself may provide results this year. Not draft worthy at this point but definitely someone to keep an eye on and see what develops.
7. CF Cameron Maybin - No longer the hot prospect at 23, this former Tiger farm hand and Marlin hope has yet to show anything at the Major League level. A career .246, he did flash some power with 8 2010 HRs & showcased his speed with 9 steals in 291 ABs. This is not nearly what was expected of him and I can't see anything good coming from a switch to Petco as he's never really taken advantage of his speed to get more hits. He is hitting .379 this spring with 2 HRs & should get regular ABs in 2011 but I can't buy in before I see an obvious turnaround appear.
8. SS Jason Bartlett - This ex-Twin & Tampa Bay Ray will have to show he can hit and get on base before the Padres insert him into an action spot in the order. While it is entirely possible he could lead off or bat 2nd, I think Bud Black wants to see improvement over last year before a change is made. Keep in mind that the possibility for hitting success has surfaced before as he's had as many as 14 HRs, 66 RBIs & displayed a .320 season average before. I don't think anyone expects him to hit more than a handful of HRs in 2011 or approach his RBI high but he could recapture his hitting stroke and match his 2009 SB total of 30. He might be a watch list candidate but there's better SS options on draft day for now.
Possibilities
RHP Ernesto Frieri - Unfortunately for the Padres most of their Major League ready talent lies in starting pitching with recently demoted Simon Castro & this 25 year old Columbian bazooka. Appearing in 33 2010 games, he posted a big league 1.71 ERA with 41 Ks in 31-2/3 innings to go along with a microscopic AA and WHIP. With the rotation well represented, he'll probably be in the San Diego pen again in 2011 but if anything happens to Bell or the Padres decide to deal him to another team before the trade deadline, Frieri looks like a transition to closer won't have the Padres missing a step.
OF Aaron Cunningham - With a dearth of hitting prospects ready to play in the Majors, Cunningham is almost assured of an opening day roster spot. The former Oakland A hit .288 in 132 2010 ABs with the Padres. He's not known for power so we might disregard his 2 Cactus League round trippers so far to go along with 8 RBIs. Speed is his game and he's already swiped 3 this spring. If Venable doesn't work out or Maybin fails to produce again, he might be in line for a chance to start.
OF Mike Baxter - Not showing much in an 8 AB "cup of coffee" with San Diego in 2010, he's been hot this spring. At 26, he's no longer a prospect but carries a heavier HR bat than Cunningham and that's what is sorely needed in San Diego. Probably beginning 2011 in the minors, he might get the call up if he continues swinging a hot bat there. The Padres have very little to choose from in the way of an offensive infusion so any hint of a potent bat will send management scurrying his way.
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