ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Rotation
1. RHP Ian Kennedy - As with most rotations without a clear #1 ace, and with no announcement as of this writing, it is not known exactly who will pitch where. Zach Duke was brought over to add a stable veteran presence to this rotation but he'll miss at least a month with broken bones in his throwing hand (not that he would lend any effectiveness to this staff with 2010 5.72 ERA). Kennedy has as good credentials as anyone in the proposed starting 5 but could be anywhere from 1 to 3 in the pecking order. Coming over from the Yankees & in his 1st season with the D'backs, Kennedy won only 9 in 32 starts. Much of this can be blamed on the weak Arizona bullpen and their inability to hold leads as well as the offense not coming through at crucial points of the game. He still had a 3.80 ERA, 168 Ks in 194 IP, a .228 average against & a respectable 1.20 WHIP. Those numbers would translate into at least 15 wins on most other teams. Though he's had a very ordinary spring, I think he can improve somewhere close to that win total in 2011 as the bullpen shapes up much better for 2011. If he can approach the other numbers he posted last year, he looks like a middle of the pack #3 or #4 fantasy starter who could deliver surprising year end stats.
2. RHP Daniel Hudson - As strange as it may seem, here's my candidate for getting the ball opening day. It probably won't happen as he only has 16 MLB starts under his belt. Another AL transplant (from the White Sox), perhaps Arizona should make a deal with AL teams on a regular basis if this type of success is the result. Getting back to those 16 starts, Hudson has amazing poise for such a young pitcher. In his 1st shot at a rotation spot, he didn't waste it going 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 95-1/3 innings. Arizona probably wished they had gotten him sooner as he did even better for the D'backs. He added 84 Ks, a .202 average against and a sterling 1.00 WHIP. Though not having a remarkable spring in the rarified air of the Cactus League, the tell numbers are still there and he seems to be improving his K ratio as well. I'm definitely on board but no one will probably draft him higher than a mid-line #4 starter. This could be the year he takes the step forward and delivers #2 type starter numbers.
3. RHP Joe Saunders - Some have pegged Saunders as the winner of the opening day sweepstakes to get the ball. This would surely be based on experience and could easily backfire. A fly ball pitcher like him doesn't seem to mesh well with the ball carry Chase Field presents. Coming over from the Angels (there's that pattern again) during the 2010 season, he posted a very ordinary 4.47 ERA to go with 9 wins and 17 losses in a whole year-like 33 starts. His strikeout ratio wasn't very good and his average against & WHIP numbers were very high. This is one transaction Arizona made with the AL that didn't work out so well. As further evidence of a possible meltdown, he's been getting lit up to a 14.54 ERA this spring. I'm staying as far away as I can.
4. RHP Armando Galarraga - Curiously, #4 in the planned rotation also has history in the AL, pitching for the Tigers from 2008-2010 with little success. Sure, he was robbed of a no-hitter last year, but that could be the only highlight of this control pitcher's career. Sporting an overall ERA of 4.58 with only 23 wins in 78 starts & a high 1.36 WHIP, the only highlight on his resume is a somewhat favorable .258 average against. He's also gotten banged around this spring. Turn away from him on draft day if you value your fantasy life.
5. RHP Barry Enright - Enright appears to have the lead on the #5 spot. He pitched fairly well in 17 2010 starts after being recalled from AA. He won 6 with a 3.91 ERA & OK peripheral stats. He isn't a big strikeout pitcher either and that usually doesn't play well at Chase Field. He was also aided by a very high (& lucky) strand rate that probably won't be duplicated in 2011. I'm not sold and you should leave this one on the counter for someone else to buy. This job could also fall to veteran Aaron Heilman but I think Arizona wants him in the pen just in case J.J. Putz doesn't work out.
Closer
RHP J.J. Putz - Putz was brought over from the White Sox this year to solve the closer woes the D'backs have had. A stiff back this spring may herald some delay in that transition. Reports say it isn't serious but at 34 and falling out of favor with three teams in short order may hint at something else. When taking the mound this spring, he's been buffeted around & only has 1-1/3 innings to show for his efforts. He did recover from a miserable 2009 to establish some sort of stability last year but still blew more saves than he converted. He can still strike batters out at a good clip but I wonder what 2011 holds in store. He's certainly more of a sure thing than the D'backs have had in a long time to close out games. I'd pick him up for my fantasy team as a middle #2 closer but that might be too late.
Lineup
1. CF Chris Young - After a very disappointing 2009 Young rebounded in 2010 with something that more resembled his typical yearly totals in 4 full seasons with the D'backs. He reached many career highs last year and this 27 year old may finally be among the All-Star caliber outfielders in baseball now. With his ability to hit the ball, the career .241 BA is mystifying. He may never sport an average above .265 as even in his exceptional 2010 campaign, he only managed a career best .257. I do think that he can hit for power numbers regularly & get close to 30 HRs, add 90+ RBIs & score 100 runs in 2011. He also busted out 28 steals last year so he has the potential to be a 30/30 guy. If you get those numbers, you'll live with the pedestrian BA. A #2 outfielder for a fantasy team at worst.
2. 2B Kelly Johnson - I admit I didn't see his 2010 year coming and still find it hard to fathom. The ball must really travel at Chase Field. After years of OK power numbers he broke out the heavy lumber last year. I do think the atmosphere in the D'backs home park had something to do with it but he'll be there again in 2011. He's also been up & down in BA so I think 2011 will yield a .275 average with 21 HRs, 68 RBIs, close to 100 runs scored & a dozen steals. Top of the line fantasy numbers for a starting 2nd baseman.
3. SS Stephen Drew - It does say something about the power of Arizona's attack if SS Drew resides in the #3 hole. Now don't get me wrong, I've always liked his hitting ability & the lineup did need to be juggled with the defections of Reynolds & LaRoche. Drew did hit .278 with 15 HRs & 61 RBIs last year & has launched as many as 21 HRs in a season but that doesn't sound like stats from a #3 hitter. He and Johnson may switch batting order positions when the season gets underway. Well, you make do with what you have and at least he's on the field a lot more than his brother. I believe he'll try to justify this RBI spot in the order by swinging for the fences more in 2011. This might raise his HR total to a new career high but he'll suffer in BA & runs scored. How about 23 HRs, 75 RBIs, a .266 average, half a dozen steals and 75 runs scored. Sounds like a higher selected #1 starting SS to me.
4. RF Justin Upton - He and Young seem to have polar opposite years. One has an up year & the other a down year than it switches the next. Based on this inane logic. Upton should bust out the stick this year. A jammed right knee this spring may put a crimp in those plans but all are saying it isn't serious. We'll see. Still a young 23, I like his talent much better than his brother and I don't think he's reached his ceiling yet. Guessing that his knee is nothing to get concerned about, perhaps both he & Young can have solid 2011 seasons for a change. He's capable of hitting 30+ HRs, driving in more than 90, hitting .300 & stealing 20 bags this year but I'm not sure it will happen as he's very erratic. I'm going to say it will be very worthwhile having him or Young on your fantasy team this year. Upton can probably be had later than usual after his 2010 let down but don't wait too long. He was considered to be a 1st round selection last year and may not last past the 3rd round this time.
5. 1B Russell Branyan - Imported lumber from 2 AL seasons, this long time veteran journeyman could easily replace the numbers lost to Adam Laroche's departure. Never known to carry a good BA, he cranked 31 HRs playing half his games in Seattle's pitchers park in 2009. If you can live with the low average and huge strikeout numbers, you'll get at least 30+ HRs in Chase Field and possibly 80 RBIs to go along with that. That's fine for a lower tier starting 1st baseman or a back up corner infielder.
6. C Miguel Montero - Montero carries more lumber to the plate than your average MLB catcher and several are saying that finally getting a full time starting job will lead to heavy duty offensive totals. An early 2010 injury scuttled last year but he did make 425 plate appearances in 2009 and he's played his entire MLB career in the hitters park called Chase Field. The best he was able to muster was 16 HRs & 59 RBIs in that 2009 season hitting a rock solid .294. His career says that average won't hold water again so I see 14 HRs, 50 RBIs & an average closer to his career mark of .265. Certainly a lot better than your run of the mill catcher stats but not among the elite. you should be able to do better for your fantasy starter if you don't wait too long.
7. 3B Melvin Mora - After 9 straight years with the Orioles, Mora moves to his 2nd team in 2 years. He does sport the occasional power surges but they are too few and far between. Since belting 23 & knocking in 104 in his next to last year with the O's, he's put up just 15 in total the past 2 seasons. It is also doubtful that he'll get a full year of at bats at age 39. He'll still be able to manage an average in the .270-.280 range but clearly is relegated to a stop gap measure until something better comes along for the D'backs. If he gets into a patented hot streak this summer and you're the 1st to catch it, he may boost your offensive stats for a week or two as a FA pick up but other than that I'm strictly hands off.
Possibilities
RHP Sam Demel - This is my choice for the future of Arizona's closing situation. 2010 in Arizona did go smoothly but he converted both save chances he got and has the arm to post top of the line K numbers. He has also shown very good control but can get caught in big innings too frequently. He's been virtually unhittable this spring showcasing his future promise with a 2.08 ERA, 9 Ks, a .206 average against & a 1.04 WHIP in 8-2/3 innings while converting his only save chance.
1B Brandon Allen - If Branyan fails to deliver, it might be Allen who supplants him instead of Nady. Showing plenty of power in his minor league career, he flashed a glimpse of that in 2 brief stints late with Arizona in 2009 & 2010. This spring, he's put it all together hitting .326 with 9 RBIs in 46 ABs. It seems his skills are perfectly tailored to Chase Field and he has little left to prove in the minors.
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