SEATTLE MARINERS
Rotation
1. RHP Felix Hernandez - King Felix emerged as the star pitcher Seattle expected in 2009 (19-5) and was finally recognized by the media for his efforts with the 2010 AL Cy Young award. Someone must be paying attention as he only won 13 games in 2010. That is not his fault as Seattle's offensive support for him was awful. Still young as he nears 25, the best might be yet to come. With an assortment of pitches that have hitters talking to themselves as they head back to the dugout, this is a starter you want as your #1. The only question is how many games he can win as the best of Seattle's offense might be a few years away.
2. LHP Jason Vargas - A big drop off here to #2, Vargas surprised a bit by posting his 1st ever decent ERA in 2010. I tend to think that won't continue as his career 4.66 ERA seems like a better barometer. Add in a high WHIP in the bigs & I see little chance to win a lot of games with a sputtering Mariner offense. I'm staying away.
3. RHP Doug Fister - Even though he is an imposing 6'-8", Fister doesn't appear to be a strikeout pitcher. In parts of 2 big league seasons, his ERA is in the low 4.00s & he carries a high WHIP as well. Though notching 7 Ks in 9 spring innings, he's been batted around to the tune of a 5.00 ERA. I can't see him adding anything positive to a fantasy roster at this point.
4. LHP Erik Bedard - The Major League possibilities Bedard could realize with his talented abilities would be something a fantasy owner would dream about. Unfortunately this former Orioles phenom makes J.D. Drew look sturdy. Three shoulder surgeries since 2007 have left him hardly even taking the mound the last two years. Also of concern is his obvious lack of concentration when he does pitch. I've seen him completely lose focus on the mound and get ridiculously wild, staring off into the unknown with a far wawy look on his face. That is a shame as he's a true strikeout pitcher whose recent ERA and WHIP numbers support the fact that he has some of the best stuff in baseball. He's tantalizing again this spring with 8 Ks, a 1.59 ERA & a 0.88 WHIP in just 5-2/3 innings. He's going to be awful hard to resist on draft day but I won't throw away a high draft pick on him. If he lasts towards the late stages and continues to pitch well this spring, I'd love to grab him as one of my last starters.
5. RHP Michael Pineda - The Mariners might give David Pauley this spot only so they can hold onto Pineda a bit longer. I think that would be a mistake as he's Major League ready now. I'll go so far as to say he might be the best young pitcher in all of baseball. An imposing 6'-7" & 260, he's a strikeout machine with a good slider and change up as well. If Seattle fans could just imagine King Felix, a healthy Bedard & Pineda in their rotation when Seattle's young hitters are ready, they could make a mockery of the AL West. I'd watch the announcement of where Pineda begins and snag him as soon as he's inserted into the rotation.
Closer
RHP David Aardsma - Off season hip surgery has yet to find Aardsma taking the mound this spring & probably not until mid-April at the earliest. Posting solid WHIP & ERA numbers, Aardsma has delivered 69 saves over the last 2 years. He has blown 9 over that period so I'm not sure he qualifies as a top tier closer. As Seattle will probably find themselves in a lot of close games thanks to a potentially excellent starting staff, the opportunities should be there. I would not take him in the draft as you need closer numbers right off the bat but monitor his progress if he isn't drafted.
RHP Brandon League - Probably 1st in line while Aardsma rehabs, I always thought this ex-Blue Jay had the talent to be a solid MLB closer. He didn't have the success I thought he would until improving a bit last year. Of concern is the fact that he should have a better K/IP ratio. It is also disturbing that he blew half of his save opportunities last year. He's again gotten bounced around this spring so I can't recommend him for a fantasy roster.
RHP Chris Ray - 1 of 3 ex-Oriole pitchers on the Seattle roster, Ray had 2 productive years as a closer in 2006 & 2007. He was lights out in 2006 but then had injury problems a year later. It has taken some time and a bit of travel for him to come back but he has yet to find his former strikeout dominance. I'm always cautious until I see some positive results and this case is no different. Depending on how quickly Aardsma recovers, I'd keep an eye on Ray's progress as he could surprise in 2011.
Lineup
1.RF Ichiro Suzuki - Not seeming to miss a step at 37, the fixture at the top of Seattle's attack entering his 11th season has yet to miss the 200+ hit mark. Amazing as well, he rebounded from 26 swipes in 2009 to record 42 in 2010. He's a all-star outfielder who'll give you premium numbers everywhere except for HRs & RBIs. I'd take that all day long and he should again come off the board very early in any draft.
2. 3B Chone Figgins - He and anyone who had him on their 2010 fantasy team would rather forget last year. Moving back to to a better comfort level at 3rd after last year's patrol at 2nd, most "experts" are already writing him off at 33. I don't agree just yet as the indicators of 2010 show good totals in SB and hits. I see a rebound at least in 2011 and he could easily produce near his career numbers. I'm not sure I'd take him high as a starting 3rd bagger but I'm fairly sure he'll qualify at both making him a solid pick near the middle of the draft to man 2nd base on a fantasy team (unless someone jumps the gun earlier).
3. CF Franklin Gutierrez - The ex-Indian has still failed to deliver on the promising attributes I liked early on. Last year's .245 average in full time duty was even below his ho-hum career .261. The power numbers that peeked their head above ground in 2009 also went back under last year. Sure Safeco isn't the easiest place to hit, but I'm taking a wait and see approach with him as well though some fantasy player will stick their neck out for him in the draft. Not me.
4. DH Jack Cust - Now reverting back to a well traveled bat for hire after putting down roots for 4 seasons in Oakland, this will be his 6th MLB team. It speaks volumes about the Mariner's weak lineup that Cust is the clean up guy. He does have a history of big HR years but his average won't touch the .272 he hit in 2011 when curiously he had only 13 dingers in a less than full season 349 ABs. He'll provide the occasional streaks of power production during the year but will also fall into deep slumps with many whiffs as well. I'm not looking his way on draft day.
5. 1B Justin Smoak - The former Texas farmhand and brief prospect enters his 1st full season at 1B with the job his to lose. He does have enough of a power bat to give an MLB team the kind of numbers they need at the position but he's going to have to show improvement on a weak BA & OBP from last year. Seattle isn't the best place to fatten your offensive stats with a soft lineup in a pitcher's park so the jury's still out. I like another Mariner prospect better for this job anyway.
6. C Miguel Olivo - With Olivo now hurt and not expected back for 2 weeks, it is possible whoever mans this post on opening day may move down to 7th when the winner of the LF job is announced. He did hit .269 with 14 HRs & 58 RBIs last year and jacked out 23 in 2009 so if getting power from your catcher is enough, go ahead and buy in depending on his health status. I personally think you can easily do better with the infusion of young backstops making their presence felt in the bigs.
7. LF Michael Saunders - Saunders appears to have the inside track on this job and might hit #6 in the opening day order. He hasn't hit this spring but the potential of power & production that last year's numbers hinted at is enough to convince the Mariners. I'm not so sure so I'll stay way for now. Switch hitting vet Milton Bradley might also be positioned here and I wouldn't take him on a bet. This is baseball's version of the Charlie Sheen/Lindsay Lohan "Blow Up Your Career" self destruct button. With the promising talent he had as an Expo rookie in 2000, injuries & attitude have contributed to a ship that's already sailed.
8. SS Jack Wilson - An overhaul in the middle of the M's infield began in 2009 with Wilson supplanting Betancourt. A career .267 BA and no solid numbers anywhere else mean he's on board for his defense. Hittng .476 with surprising power this spring shouldn't fool you either. He has no place on a fantasy baseball roster.
9. 2B Brandon Ryan - With Seattle dumping Jose Lopez & moving Figgins back to 2nd the transformation of their middle infield is complete but not for the better offensively. The ex-Cardinal mirrors Wilson in many ways and unless you like watching him play the field on TV, doesn't belong anywhere near your fantasy roster.
Possibilities
2B Dustin Ackley - The youth movement in Seattle might just begin this year with Ackley. The M's top pick in the 2009 draft certainly doesn't have much standing in his way at the big club level. It is unknown whether he'll start in Seattle or get shipped to the minors until June as many small market teams do. Seattle does spend some FA money so either is possible but the fact that he's just learning to play 2B and hasn't developed his full power potential yet leads me to believe he'll spend time in the minors to begin 2011. When he matures, he could produce star quality numbers all the way across the offensive boards as he has speed to burn as well. A .316 spring average may sway Seattle but I think not. This bears close watching.
1B/OF Mike Carp - OK. I talked about who I'd like to see given a shot at 1B and this is the fish. How well does Carp go with a team named the Mariners? Smoak will be given a long rope to succeed but I believe Carp might also make the opening day roster. He has thundering power potential smashing 29 in his 2nd AAA campaign last year but lost some plate discipline. He also regressed in his 2nd September call up hitting only .189 compared to .315 the year before. Still, I think he'll become a player with solid 1B type offensive numbers and wrest the job from Smoak. He might not start the season in the bigs but if & when the M's have seen enough of Smoak, an early call up could find him entrenched at 1B for Seattle.
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