MLB Fantasy Jump Start - Colorado Rockies

COLORADO ROCKIES

Rotation

1. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez - Though fading a bit after the All-Star break, Jimenez is becoming a star quality ace if he's not already considered one. Improving his numbers for the 3rd year in a row he posted a Cy Young worthy 19-8 record with a 2.88 ERA, .209 average against, 1.15 WHIP & 214 Ks in 221-2/3 innings. Add to this that he took the mound for at least 33 starts for the past three years and pitches half his games in a still hitter friendly Coors Field. At 27, he could even have more to show baseball fans. If he can stay away from injuries & find a way to improve his stamina towards the end of the season, he could win more than 20 with ease and keep or best the rest of his wonderful stats also. A true 1st starter ace who could easily become the best starter in baseball.

 

2. LHP Jorge De La Rosa - Also a victim of some 2nd half fatigue, his strikeout rate dropped as the season went along. The final 2010 numbers didn't look impressive as he only won 8 compared to 16 in 2009 and his ERA still hovered in the low 4.00s. Not much to put on your resume & a real step back after emerging as a potent starter in 2009. Part can be blamed on a finger injury which limited him to only 20 starts & 121 innings. He had a good .235 average against but got into trouble by walking more batters than he should have. This may be a chronic problem as he's the kind of strikeout pitcher that can get to 9K per 9 IP. Coming up on 30, time may be short for him to straighten out his mechanics. He's still a viable starter for the back end of a fantasy rotation as long as it is realized that having him is a great risk/great reward gamble.

 

3. RHP Jhoulys Chacin - This 23 year old got his 1st taste of substantial innings and starts last year. He responded by winning 9 and posting a solid 3.28 ERA in 21 starting shots. Add a career 9.2 K per 9 IP and we have to sit up and take notice. He's assured of a spot in the rotation but may switch with Hammel and slot #4. The only concern is he gives up a lot of walks which inflates his WHIP. His arsenal includes a plus fastball and nasty breaking pitches. I know he's still mastering his craft but has the innate ability and stuff to succeed well at the major league level. He's done well this spring except for a lower K rate but he bears watching. I'm not sure you'd want to gamble a roster pick just yet but something tells me he'll find his way to a lot of fantasy rosters this summer.

4. RHP Jason Hammel - Hammel has given the Rocks over 176 innings & 10 wins for two years in a row. Pretty good for the back end of the rotation kind of guy. On occasion during the season he'll bust out bursts of higher K totals but don't count on this with any consistency. He'll do all right in that respect but the career warning signs of an ERA over 5.00, hitter friendly WHIP & average against numbers doesn't qualify him for a fantasy roster spot on opening day. If he has one of those bursts during the season and you're quick enough, he might boost you pitching stats for a week or two during the year.

5. RHP Esmil Rogers - It is not certain who gets spot #5 but Rogers looks like the lead candidate. Aaron Cook has a broken finger, John Maine has been given enough chances to come around & Felipe Paulino hasn't done well this spring. Rogers also has very bad career tell numbers across the board & has been less effective than Paulino this spring. It is the heat that intrigues the Rockies though and they may also be looking at his very unlucky 2010 strand rate to give him the shot this year. I don't know how soon Cook will be ready & Paulino's ceiling is probably higher so if he doesn't hit the ground running, this might be a short rotation stay. None of three mentioned here should be on an opening day fantasy roster.

Closer

RHP Huston Street - Though there is no doubt Street is the lone closer in Colorado, his frequent injuries the past couple of years maybe too much for the Rockies to deal with on a consistent basis. After each mending period, it has also taken some time to get back to effectiveness. Colorado will probably stick with him for now as his more than a strikeout per inning career ratio,  very good ERA, WHIP & average against is very hard to find elsewhere. Still only 27, there is also a bit of concern in his consistency as he blew 5 of 25 save chances in 2010. Let's chalk it up to last year's injuries as his track record when healthy speaks for itself. A mid to late #1 fantasy closer.

Lineup

1. CF Dexter Fowler - Given the opportunity to lead off again in 2011, the open portal may soon be closing. There's no doubting his speed but a decline from 2009 to 2010 in stolen bases from 27 to 13 leaves a concern that he might not be an adept baserunner. Of more concern is his career .259 BA. Again, since he's not swinging for the fences, perhaps he needs more instruction in how to use his speed to get more leg hits. He hasn't be able to find that solution yet as his spring average is right at his career mark again. If he can hone his game to use his abilities, his mark of 70+ runs scored will also go up dramatically. Until we see concrete results, I can't recommend him any more than a last roster outfielder but that's a stretch also. A spring quad injury may also slow him down to begin 2011. I'll be leaving him alone on draft day unless I completely forget to draft other base stealers who can also hit.

2. RF Seth Smith - Years as a Rockie platoon player and part timer end this year as he gets the starting gig in left field. While Ryan Spilborghs will steal some at bats vs. lefties, he should still amass more than the 358 he garnered in 2010. Last year was the 2nd in a row that he got more than 350 at bats and he has delivered similar power numbers both times. Averaging 16 HRs and RBIs in the mid-50s may be his water mark unless given the chance to get 500+ at bats in a season. 2010 also saw his average dip 47 points and 25 points lower than his career .271 mark. I think what he's put up in 2009 & 2010 is indicative of what 2011 holds. Unless he gathers himself to bring that average back up to improve his runs scored total, he looks like a late fantasy selection or an in season pick up during a hot streak.

3. LF Carlos Gonzalez - No one in MLB had a bigger coming out party than CarGo in 2010. Taking 2 years to develop after coming over from Oakland as an A's top prospect, Gonzalez posted an MVP type year. The numbers across the board were stunning but even more could be expected for 2011. His home/road splits were lopsided but at a young 25 and entering only his 4th MLB season, I tend to think that will right itself shortly. With Tulo's dangerous bat behind him and the hitters atmosphere at Coors Field, I see at 37 HRs, 120+ RBIs, an average well over .320 and possibly more than 30 stolen bases. Not only MVP type numbers, but a viable candidate to win the Triple Crown. Some see him as an early 2nd round fantasy selection but I'm slotting him for round 1. There is a concern from a bruised shin acquired in a spring game collision with Ian Stewart but it doesn't appear to have slowed this budding superstar down.

4. SS Troy Tulowitzki - 59 HRs & 197 RBIs in the last two years. Those are the kind of power numbers you associate with the top sluggers in the game. Tulo may be that but with those stats coming from the SS position makes every fantasy player lick their collective chops in anticipation. Add an average close to or above .300, a dozen stolen bags per year & 100 runs scored & you have a sure fire high 1st round pick. I don't expect 2011 will be any different and he could do even better in the power numbers.

5. 1B Todd Helton - Near the end of a bench mark Rockies career, it seems that Helton's average drop to .256 is the last thing in his once powerful game to go. His power stroke last made a significant appearance in 2004 & now it looks like he'll never get within sniffing distance of a .300 average. We're all better for watching him play at his best but I'm not sure he's roster worthy anymore. Helton is hitting spring training pitchers to the tune of his glory days like .355 but I don't expect that will hold up once the bell rings. We'll see what develops but I don't think he'll be able to accumulate stats that will be enough for roster consideration.

 

6. 2B Jose Lopez - Long time Mariner Lopez takes over 2nd for the time being. He does have more power than the average fantasy 2nd baseman and the drop to 10 HRs last year played mostly in the pitcher friendly environs of Safeco Field may be partly responsible. I believe there are other factors to weigh as he hit 25 the year before in the same situations. His average also tailed off in 2010 & his OBP was also miserable so a decline is certainly possible. At 27, he still brings more to the plate than predecessor Barmes. Even factoring in the Coors Field advantage (which didn't do Melvin Mora any good last year), I see a 2011 with 14 HRs, 66 RBIs & a .270 average at best. He's never been known as a big run scorer & he won't steal many bases at all either. He's still a viable fantasy starter, but more towards the middle of the pack at this position.

7. 3B Ian Stewart - Stewart took the brunt of a spring training collision with CarGo & came away with a right knee sprain causing him to miss a half dozen games. He hasn't gotten back into game action since and his career is checkered with injuries as well. Logging starter status beginning in 2009, the Rocks are still waiting for him to cash in on his promise. There's no denying his power and he did amass 25 HRs & 70 RBIs in 2009 but a low BA & a propensity for high strikeout totals have all but negated those positives. Colorado may soon be running out of patience as he's at it again this spring hitting .200 in only 10 ABs. Susceptibility to getting hurt and those low averages may lead the Rockies in another direction for their 3rd bagger soon. Assuming he's ready to go for the Colorado opener, 20 HRs, 60 RBIs & a customary average of around .250 seems likely for 2011. I've had my fill of waiting for him to turn the corner and there are better 3rd base & corner infield options to pursue on draft day.

8. C Chris Iannetta - With Miguel Olivo gone, the starting job is his to lose in 2011. Predictors have lined up to announce a breakout season for Iannetta but not so fast. Like Stewart, he has power hitting ability with as many as 18 HRs and driving in 65 in 333 2008 ABs but also like the 3rd baseman, his career BA resides at a low .234. Neither of those stats are likely to change any time soon. I see 15 HRs, 55 RBIs and an average south of .220 this year. If you can live with the BA hit, the power numbers may be enough to have him as your starting catcher. If you don't wait too long to select a 1st back stop, you can do better.  


Possibilites


2B/OF Eric Young - Good blood lines as Jr. follows Sr. into the majors. With the ability to play multiple positions a plus for a major league roster, it can also label a player as a reserve. He hasn't been able to find his hitting groove in parts of 2 Rockie seasons, batting in the .240s. It should be worth the Rockies time to invest a little more patience in his development as he could be a future MLB base stealing leader & run scoring machine. If Lopez falters or the Fowler experiment fails, he could be next in line. He's hitting .333 this spring in 15 ABs so the possibility of success is there. I'd watch the outfield and 2nd base situation in Colorado as the summer moves on and see what happens.

C Wilin Rosario - With their two best pitching prospects fresh out of recent player drafts (Lefties Tyler Matzek & Christian Friedrich) & too green to sniff anywhere near a Colorado call up, Rosario may be in line for a starter's berth in the near future if Iannetta again doesn't live up to expectations in 2011. He presents all the offensive skills usually lacking at this position. Playing in AA Texas League in 2010, he ranked #2 in slugging percentage but didn't qualify after tearing his ACL in August, ending his season. His bat is so potent that Colorado might entertain the idea of making him the back up sooner rather than later. He's only hit .167 this spring but with only Jose Morales (a good average hitter but no power) standing between him and the job Iannetta currently holds, his star quality bat may soon be needed at Coors Field as the recent wave of young catchers who can hit invades MLB and also washes ashore in Colorado.   

   

MLB Fantasy Jump Start - Arizona Diamondbacks

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Rotation

1. RHP Ian Kennedy - As with most rotations without a clear #1 ace, and with no announcement as of this writing, it is not known exactly who will pitch where. Zach Duke was brought over to add a stable veteran presence to this rotation but he'll miss at least a month with broken bones in his throwing hand (not that he would lend any effectiveness to this staff with 2010 5.72 ERA). Kennedy has as good credentials as anyone in the proposed starting 5 but could be anywhere from 1 to 3 in the pecking order. Coming over from the Yankees & in his 1st season with the D'backs, Kennedy won only 9 in 32 starts. Much of this can be blamed on the weak Arizona bullpen and their inability to hold leads as well as the offense not coming through at crucial points of the game. He still had a 3.80 ERA, 168 Ks in 194 IP, a .228 average against & a respectable 1.20 WHIP. Those numbers would translate into at least 15 wins on most other teams. Though he's had a very ordinary spring, I think he can improve somewhere close to that win total in 2011 as the bullpen shapes up much better for 2011. If he can approach the other numbers he posted last year, he looks like a middle of the pack #3 or #4 fantasy starter who could deliver surprising year end stats.

2. RHP Daniel Hudson - As strange as it may seem, here's my candidate for getting the ball opening day. It probably won't happen as he only has 16 MLB starts under his belt. Another AL transplant (from the White Sox), perhaps Arizona should make a deal with AL teams on a regular basis if this type of success is the result. Getting back to those 16 starts, Hudson has amazing poise for such a young pitcher. In his 1st shot at a rotation spot, he didn't waste it going 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 95-1/3 innings. Arizona probably wished they had gotten him sooner as he did even better for the D'backs. He added 84 Ks, a .202 average against and a sterling 1.00 WHIP. Though not having a remarkable spring in the rarified air of the Cactus League, the tell numbers are still there and he seems to be improving his K ratio as well. I'm definitely on board but no one will probably draft him higher than a mid-line #4 starter. This could be the year he takes the step forward and delivers #2 type starter numbers.

3. RHP Joe Saunders - Some have pegged Saunders as the winner of the opening day sweepstakes to get the ball. This would surely be based on experience and could easily backfire. A fly ball pitcher like him doesn't seem to mesh well with the ball carry Chase Field presents. Coming over from the Angels (there's that pattern again) during the 2010 season, he posted a very ordinary 4.47 ERA to go with 9 wins and 17 losses in a whole year-like 33 starts. His strikeout ratio wasn't very good and his average against & WHIP numbers were very high. This is one transaction Arizona made with the AL that didn't work out so well. As further evidence of a possible meltdown, he's been getting lit up to a 14.54 ERA this spring. I'm staying as far away as I can.

4. RHP Armando Galarraga - Curiously, #4 in the planned rotation also has history in the AL, pitching for the Tigers from 2008-2010 with little success. Sure, he was robbed of a no-hitter last year, but that could be the only highlight of this control pitcher's career. Sporting an overall ERA of 4.58 with only 23 wins in 78 starts & a high 1.36 WHIP, the only highlight on his resume is a somewhat favorable .258 average against. He's also gotten banged around this spring. Turn away from him on draft day if you value your fantasy life.

5. RHP Barry Enright - Enright appears to have the lead on the #5 spot. He pitched fairly well in 17 2010 starts after being recalled from AA. He won 6 with a 3.91 ERA & OK peripheral stats. He isn't a big strikeout pitcher either and that usually doesn't play well at Chase Field. He was also aided by a very high (& lucky) strand rate that probably won't be duplicated in 2011. I'm not sold and you should leave this one on the counter for someone else to buy. This job could also fall to veteran Aaron Heilman but I think Arizona wants him in the pen just in case J.J. Putz doesn't work out.

Closer

RHP J.J. Putz - Putz was brought over from the White Sox this year to solve the closer woes the D'backs have had. A stiff back this spring may herald some delay in that transition. Reports say it isn't serious but at 34 and falling out of favor with three teams in short order may hint at something else. When taking the mound this spring, he's been buffeted around & only has 1-1/3 innings to show for his efforts. He did recover from a miserable 2009 to establish some sort of stability last year but still blew more saves than he converted. He can still strike batters out at a good clip but I wonder what 2011 holds in store. He's certainly more of a sure thing than the D'backs have had in a long time to close out games. I'd pick him up for my fantasy team as a middle #2 closer but that might be too late.

Lineup

1. CF Chris Young - After a very disappointing 2009 Young rebounded in 2010 with something that more resembled his typical yearly totals in 4 full seasons with the D'backs. He reached many career highs last year and this 27 year old may finally be among the All-Star caliber outfielders in baseball now. With his ability to hit the ball, the career .241 BA is mystifying. He may never sport an average above .265 as even in his exceptional 2010 campaign, he only managed a career best .257. I do think that he can hit for power numbers regularly & get close to 30 HRs, add 90+ RBIs & score 100 runs in 2011. He also busted out 28 steals last year so he has the potential to be a 30/30 guy. If you get those numbers, you'll live with the pedestrian BA. A #2 outfielder for a fantasy team at worst.

2. 2B Kelly Johnson - I admit I didn't see his 2010 year coming and still find it hard to fathom. The ball must really travel at Chase Field. After years of OK power numbers he broke out the heavy lumber last year. I do think the atmosphere in the D'backs home park had something to do with it but he'll be there again in 2011. He's also been up & down in BA so I think 2011 will yield a .275 average with 21 HRs, 68 RBIs, close to 100 runs scored & a dozen steals. Top of the line fantasy numbers for a starting 2nd baseman.

3. SS Stephen Drew - It does say something about the power of Arizona's attack if SS Drew resides in the #3 hole. Now don't get me wrong, I've always liked his hitting ability & the lineup did need to be juggled with the defections of Reynolds & LaRoche. Drew did hit .278 with 15 HRs & 61 RBIs last year & has launched as many as 21 HRs in a season but that doesn't sound like stats from a #3 hitter. He and Johnson may switch batting order positions when the season gets underway. Well, you make do with what you have and at least he's on the field a lot more than his brother. I believe he'll try to justify this RBI spot in the order by swinging for the fences more in 2011. This might raise his HR total to a new career high but he'll suffer in BA & runs scored. How about 23 HRs, 75 RBIs, a .266 average, half a dozen steals and 75 runs scored. Sounds like a higher selected #1 starting SS to me.

4. RF Justin Upton - He and Young seem to have polar opposite years. One has an up year & the other a down year than it switches the next. Based on this inane logic. Upton should bust out the stick this year. A jammed right knee this spring may put a crimp in those plans but all are saying it isn't serious. We'll see. Still a young 23, I like his talent much better than his brother and I don't think he's reached his ceiling yet. Guessing that his knee is nothing to get concerned about, perhaps both he & Young can have solid 2011 seasons for a change. He's capable of hitting 30+ HRs, driving in more than 90, hitting .300 & stealing 20 bags this year but I'm not sure it will happen as he's very erratic. I'm going to say it will be very worthwhile having him or Young on your fantasy team this year. Upton can probably be had later than usual after his 2010 let down but don't wait too long. He was considered to be a 1st round selection last year and may not last past the 3rd round this time.

 

5. 1B Russell Branyan - Imported lumber from 2 AL seasons, this long time veteran journeyman could easily replace the numbers lost to Adam Laroche's departure. Never known to carry a good BA, he cranked 31 HRs playing half his games in Seattle's pitchers park in 2009. If you can live with the low average and huge strikeout numbers, you'll get at least 30+ HRs in Chase Field and possibly 80 RBIs to go along with that. That's fine for a lower tier starting 1st baseman or a back up corner infielder.

6. C Miguel Montero - Montero carries more lumber to the plate than your average MLB catcher and several are saying that finally getting a full time starting job will lead to heavy duty offensive totals. An early 2010 injury scuttled last year but he did make 425 plate appearances in 2009 and he's played his entire MLB career in the hitters park called Chase Field. The best he was able to muster was 16 HRs & 59 RBIs in that 2009 season hitting a rock solid .294. His career says that average won't hold water again so I see 14 HRs, 50 RBIs & an average closer to his career mark of .265. Certainly a lot better than your run of the mill catcher stats but not among the elite. you should be able to do better for your fantasy starter if you don't wait too long.

   

7. 3B Melvin Mora - After 9 straight years with the Orioles, Mora moves to his 2nd team in 2 years. He does sport the occasional power surges but they are too few and far between. Since belting 23 & knocking in 104 in his next to last year with the O's, he's put up just 15 in total the past 2 seasons. It is also doubtful that he'll get a full year of at bats at age 39. He'll still be able to manage an average in the .270-.280 range but clearly is relegated to a stop gap measure until something better comes along for the D'backs. If he gets into a patented hot streak this summer and you're the 1st to catch it, he may boost your offensive stats for a week or two as a FA pick up but other than that I'm strictly hands off.

 

8. LF Gerardo Parra or Xavier Nady - With Branyan now entrenched at 1B, this looks like a platoon situation for the D'backs. Though Nady could spell Branyan a few times at 1st, I still think he'll have trouble getting enough ABs to warrant a fantasy roster spot. He's not hitting this spring but the promise of past power (45 HRs & 169 RBIs combined in 2007 & 2008) will keep him in mind when Kirk Gibson fills out his daily lineup. I don't think Nady will recapture those recent years so I'd leave him be on draft day and see if he can give you a boost sometime during the season as a short term pick up. Parra is capable of hitting .300 but with little if any power numbers. He'll garner some at bats simply because he's a lefty but that shouldn't amount to much in the way of stats. I could be proven wrong here as he's tearing the cover off the ball this spring hitting .354 with 2 round trippers and 11 RBIs plus 2 steals throw in as well in 48 ABs. This might be enough for him to get some early season chances to see if the light has finally come on.



Possibilities


RHP Sam Demel - This is my choice for the future of Arizona's closing situation. 2010 in Arizona did go smoothly but he converted both save chances he got and has the arm to post top of the line K numbers. He has also shown very good control but can get caught in big innings too frequently. He's been virtually unhittable this spring showcasing his future promise with a 2.08 ERA, 9 Ks, a .206 average against & a 1.04 WHIP in 8-2/3 innings while converting his only save chance.

1B Brandon Allen - If Branyan fails to deliver, it might be Allen who supplants him instead of Nady. Showing plenty of power in his minor league career, he flashed a glimpse of that in 2 brief stints late with Arizona in 2009 & 2010. This spring, he's put it all together hitting .326 with 9 RBIs in 46 ABs. It seems his skills are perfectly tailored to Chase Field and he has little left to prove in the minors.

MLB Fantasy Jump Start - St. Louis Cardinals

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Rotation

1. RHP Chris Carpenter - The Cards were dealt a low blow from the start as ace Adam Wainwright was lost for the season with a right elbow ligament injury that required Tommy John surgery. As co-ace in the rotation, Carpenter must now pick up the slack. Also known for a checkered injury past, the rotation all of a sudden looks shaky. Carpenter has taken the mound for 63 starts in the last 2 years winning 17 & 16 respectively in 2009 & 2010 while posting ERAs & WHIPs in those years that any other starter would envy. He's also been a very good but not great strikeout pitcher. Closing in on 36 & having the additional pressure caused by Wainwright's absence, can you expect 2011 to be as good or better than the previous 2 which rivaled almost anything he threw up on the board in his entire star-studded career? Well, he's been bounced around pretty good this spring but that was also the case last year. I have to think that age will dent his shiny armor at least a little this year but with the St. Louis offense behind him, 16-19 wins still sounds reasonable and even if the other numbers take a small dip in 2011, almost any fantasy player will line up to draft him high as their #2 man at worst.

 

2. RHP Jake Westbrook - With Wainwright out, everyone else moves up a notch. Westbrook, the Cleveland import from last year, settled in nicely after joining the Redbirds with a sparkling 3.48 ERA in 12 starts. His WHIP was high, he had a decent .262 average against & an OK strikeout ratio. What can he do with a full season in St. Louis? As I said, the Cards offense will allow him to win some games (I'm seeing 13) but I'm skeptical the other numbers will be so good. He'll probably stay in the rotation all year but I'm not so sure he 's buying into pitching coach Dave Duncan's urging to induce ground balls as he still thinks he can throw his marginal fastball past MLB hitters. I'm laying off this one.

3. LHP Jaime Garcia - The leftie's impressive 2010 campaign was essentially his rookie season. Though he did wear down a bit towards the end, that can be attributed to his 1st real taste of substantial innings pitched. Going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA & a solid .243 average against helps mitigate a somewhat high WHIP. He also struck out 7.3 batters per 9 IP. Will there be a sophomore season let down? It's possible but the talent to pitch at the Major League level is undeniable and the St. Louis organization must also think so jumping him ahead of Kyle Lohse in the rotation. 14-16 wins, an ERA still hovering around 3.00 & a decent amount of Ks is well within reach for 2011 so I'm slotting him as a #4 or #5 fantasy starter.

4. RHP Kyle Lohse - The veteran enters his 11th season at 32, getting a nice payout from the Cards after an atypically good season in '08. St. Louis may now think they've made a mistake as he's only won 10 games with a bloated ERA in the 2 successive years. I am of that opinion also as the rest of his pertinent career numbers can be called below average at best. He's been on fire this spring with a 1.80 ERA, .221 average against & 0.83 WHIP in 18 IP. I'm not fooled and neither should you be. When the bell rings he'll stay in most starts to probably accumulate 11-13 wins but the rest of his stats won't make you happy. I'd stay away here.

5. RHP Kyle McClellan - Last year's solid bullpen turn probably gives McClellan the leg up on the #5 spot in the rotation. The numbers from 2010 did look good (2.27 ERA, 1.08 WHIP & .210 average against) & he carried a 7K per 9 IP ratio as well but it remains to be seen if he stretch those out to achieve success as a starter. He's been nothing short of brilliant in 4 spring starts but that's only averaged 4-1/3 innings each so the results aren't all in. I prefer to wait until there's more to base a decision on but the potential & ability is there.

Closer

RHP Ryan Franklin - Franklin comfortably holds the closer's mantle after a failed attempt by the Cardinals to try flamethrower Jason Motte in that role 2 seasons ago. There's not much to find fault with either as he saved 38 in 2009 and followed that up with 27 out of 29 last year. The only draw back is he won't give you the strikeout totals you expect from a top of the line closer which, I think, was the reason for the Jason Motte experiment in the 1st place. All the other peripheral numbers look good as well and he's had a fine spring. He has the credentials to be a later drafted #1 closer but as I seek and desire a lot of Ks from this fantasy position, he's a mid #2 in my book.

Lineup

1. SS Ryan Theriot - The former Cub gets another chance here & he does have a .284 lifetime BA. I'm not sure he can carry the weight as a lead off man as his steal success rate has been relatively low since swiping  28 out of 32 in 2007. In the Cardinal lineup, he'll probably be reined in a little with Rasmus, Pujols & Holliday behind him but should still garner 15 -20 steals and score 70-80 runs. The key for him is to keep his OBP and BA up and if this spring is any indication, that might be tough. He can be considered as a late pick for a starter at SS but I see him as a back up middle infielder on a fantasy squad. 

2. CF Colby Rasmus - Rasmus had a few well documented run ins with manager LaRussa in 2010 but the former jewel of the organization's prospects still put quality numbers on the board (.276/23HR/66 RBIs/12 SB). His move to the #2 hole in the batting order is a good one to take advantage of his speed and ability to score runs. He should also see plenty of fat pitches with free agent to be Pujols & his menacing on deck presence behind him. For 2011, a .285 BA with 25 HRs, 70 RBIs & as much as 16 steals looks right. You can also probably throw in at least 100 runs scored with a better spot in the lineup so he'd fit nicely as a 3rd or 4th fantasy team outfielder.

3. 1B Albert Pujols - There's really not much you can say about Pujols as he's unanimously recognized as the #1 fantasy player in the game. Taking anyone else 1st would be a mistake. As he's just passed 31, there appears very little in the way of chinks in the armor. He has been more susceptible to injuries recently and of course that's a concern if you rely on him for monster stats each year. Right now, though, that can't be a concern as this student of the game is constantly polishing his hitting skills. Add a possible walk year to the mix which might bring the fattest contract ever seen in baseball as an incentive and he could put 55 HRs, 150 RBIs & a league leading BA on the board to go with his usual 15+ steals and 120 runs scored. Some see Hanley Ramirez as the #1 pick but I don't agree at all. He's as clear a #1 pick as there is in all of sports.

4. LF Matt Holliday - Holliday is another beneficiary of the lineup order following Pujols & he should also feast on plenty of fat pitches this year. His average of 26 HRs & 106 RBIs over the last 2 years could easily be shattered in 2011. With really no weaknesses in his game, he could project to having career numbers this year. A .320 average with 35 HRs & 120 RBIs to go with a dozen steals might be conservative. This is a high #1 fantasy outfield pick.

 

5. RF Lance Berkman - After a very unsuccessful 2010 pit stop with Yankees to beef up their stretch run, Berkman happily returns to a familiar NL. Now at a weathered 35, we wonder what this former All-Star fixture has left. He certainly is not the powerful hit machine he was in Houston anymore but a move to this stacked lineup might rejuvenate him a bit. Keep in mind he's really only 2 years removed from a long string of successful seasons. In St. Louis, he'll have to play outfield to stay in the lineup and that alone may take it's toll. I'd look for about 22 HRs, 68 RBIs & a BA in the .260 area for 2011. Not too bad but a total collapse is also possible with retirement looming. Perhaps a 5th fantasy outfielder or a nice back up corner infielder if he still qualifies at 1B. Multiple position eligibility also enhances his value.

 

6. 3B David Freese - There is absolutely no doubt Freese can hit MLB pitching with consistency. The chief concern is two straight seasons of being derailed by ankle injuries. It is quite possible this brittle state may follow his MLB career. When right, he's a .300 hitter who could also add some additional power to his game. Apparently healthy, he's torched spring pitchers at a .333 clip with 10 RBIs. That pace would surely keep him in the potent St. Louis lineup. I'm going to say he's fit for 2011 with 16 HRs, 80 RBIs & a BA in the .320s. Good enough for a late pick as a fantasy starting 3rd baseman or ideal as a back up corner infielder.

7. C Yadier Molina - A career .268 hitter with decent power, I don't expect much to change for him in 2011. Look for 6 HRs again, about 50 RBIs & an average in the high .250s. The unusual part is he's become something of a base stealing threat the last 2 years, swiping 17 over that span. I'm not a big fan of his offensive talents and wouldn't draft him as a #1 catcher. If you're looking for a few steals to pad your totals in 2011 and you're in a 2 catcher league, perhaps he'll find his way to your roster.

8. 2B Skip Schumaker - The Cards having experimented with Schumaker all over the lineup since his introduction to the starting squad in 2008. This year he sits at #8 and that might be best. After 3 successive seasons hitting over .300, he fell back quite a bit to .265 in 2010. With little power or base stealing ability, the decline in runs scored means his time to prove he belongs as a Cards starter might be growing short. He'll probably have to start off hot in 2011 to keep his job and if spring training can be used as a yardstick, his .421 average must carry over to the beginning of the St. Louis regular season. He could have some value as an in-season free agent pick up to improve your team's average but I doubt he'll find his way to very many fantasy rosters.

Possibilities

3B Matt Carpenter - Already reassigned, the golden boy of the Cards 2011 spring might be called upon if Freese falters or incurs another injury. He hit at a .340 pace with 3 triples and 7 RBIs but no MLB at bats to his credit yet may mean a full season in the minors. 

2B Dan De Scalso - Showing some promise in 34 2010 MLB at bats, DeScalso might be asked to step in soon if Schumaker doesn't hit right away. He has a little more pop and much more stolen base ability than Schumaker and has tuned up spring pitching at a .341 clip.

RHP Lance Lynn - Certainly picking up experience with a full 2010 season in AAA, Lynn might be the most polished of the Cardinal pitching prospects. He stunned with a 16K performance in the PCL playoffs. Lynn has 4 pitches (fastball, curve, slider & change up) he can baffle hitters with and has the ability to amass big strikeout totals in the majors. Without any time spent in St. Louis yet, an in-season 2011 call up looks more than likely. Given the state of the Cards rotation, that may be sooner rather than later.

 

MLB Fantasy Jump Start - Pittsburgh Pirates

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Rotation

1. LHP Paul Maholm - It is a shame that Pittsburgh has not yet been able to develop good starting pitchers to go with their young budding offense. That could change soon. In the mean time, Maholm, the veteran of 6 Pirate campaigns, looks to anchor this staff & at least provide innings while the Bucs sort out their starting problems. It is highly possible McDonald gets the ball for game 1 of the 2011 season but Maholm might be the guy also. There's not much to like here as his ordinary career ERA of 4.48 looks good in light of the 5.10 he posted last season. Add a low strikeout ratio, high WHIP & average against & you have a starter to stay away from on draft day.

2. RHP James McDonald - As this rotation could set up in any possible order, I'm going to make an educated guess that McDonald doesn't go lower than #2. The 26 year old former Dodger appears to have the best pitching "stuff" of the 5 projected starters. Sharing time between the Pirates & LA in 2010, his stats didn't stand out in 15 appearances (12 starts). He rolled out a higher than career 4.02 ERA in 4 wins with a somewhat high WHIP and OK average against. There is hope though as he brings plenty of strikeout capability to the table getting just under a K per inning last year. As the probable opening day starter in place of Maholm, he could see double digit wins in 2011 as the Pirates already have a solid hitting foundation for the future. That's still not enough for me to draft him or any other Bucs starter. He was also pulled from his spring start on 3/18 with pain in his left side so that does bear watching.

3. RHP Ross Ohlendorf - As this rotation could set up in any possible order, Ohlendorf looks to slot either as #3 or #4. His 1-11 record in 2010 is misleading to a point as he did have a respectable 4.07 ERA & .260 average against. A strained muscle in his throwing shoulder forced the Pirates to close down his 2010 season in August. After a promising 2009, that was a real let down. So who shows up this year? I'm of the opinion he may not be fully ready after his 2010 injury and his spring headlined by a 10.24 ERA supports that. I'd see what develops as he does have the talent to get back to his 2009 success story when he won 11 and had a 3.92 ERA.

4. RHP Kevin Correia - Former Padre Correia could likely switch places with Ohlendorf in the rotation and I think that will happen. As with the other projected starters, there's not much to hang your hat on here with a 2010 ERA of 5.40.  He did win 10 but also lost the same amount & the other pitching stats were equally unimpressive. Keep in mind that a lot of this was done in the pitcher's paradise of Petco Park. It has been more of the same this spring so stay very far away.

5. RHP Charlie Morton - Probably bringing up the rear of this sad starting staff, Morton hasn't shown any ability to get MLB hitters out and what's worse, his control in 2010 was terrible. Every single pitching stat from last year was sorry (2-12 record, 7.57 ERA, .332 average against & 1.73 WHIP as well as a low strikeout ratio) but he's been a pleasant surprise this spring in 3 starts with a 1.29 ERA, .196 average against, 0.71 WHIP & 8 Ks in 14 IP. Should we buy in? I'd wait to see what happens a bit during the regular season but I'm skeptical at best.

Closer

RHP Joel Hanrahan - Hanrahan was named the Pirates closer for 2011 & I think that was a good decision. 1st of all, the Pirates are going to be able to hang in games late thanks to an offense with the capability to score runs in bunches. Though he only converted 6 saves in 10 chances last year, he had a solid 3.62 ERA and .221 average against. Even more impressive, he almost had a 13K per 9 IP ratio. Though he has a bloated 8.10 ERA this spring, the K rate remains very high and this is the best tell for me. I wouldn't hesitate to select him on draft day as a fairly high #2 closer.

Lineup

1. LF Jose Tabata - The Pirates have yet to decide who leads off (it will either be Tabata or McCutchen). I'm going to guess Tabata as the Pirates probably want McCutchen in a position to use his hitting ability, surprising power and speed to generate more runs early. Tabata had his ups and downs in his rookie campaign last year but showed great promise that I think will blossom even more in 2011. When the dust settled, he accumulated a .299 BA with 35 RBIs and 19 steals to go along with 61 runs scored in 405 ABs. Not bad for a team struggling for offense in 2010. He'll probably still have periods of highs and lows this year but in a full season in the lineup he should be able to hit in the .290 range, steal at least 25 bags and score 80-90 runs. That's certainly worthy of a selection towards the back end of your fantasy draft as a late outfielder.

 

2. 2B Neil Walker - If Tabata leads off, Walker will follow him at #2 but if McCutchen is #1, look for Walker to be installed in the #3 hole. I don't think he's suited as the 3rd hitter but I think his bat will also be heard this summer. Like Tabata, Walker was also essentially in his rookie campaign in 2010 though he did have 36 Pirate ABs in 2009. He broke out with a .296 BA, 12 HRs & 66 RBIs to go along with 57 runs scored in 426 ABs. What gets my attention is the combination of great batting eye as supported by the batting average & the promise of much better than average power from a weak fantasy position. I think he'll do even better in 2011 in a protected position in the batting order and would certainly select him as a starting 2nd baseman on my team if I waited too long to grab one of the few fantasy stars at 2B.

3. CF Andrew McCutchen - Entering his 3rd season, he picked up where he left off in 2009 with another solid season in 2010. At 24, the best is yet to come and he's starting to develop more power to his 5 tool game. I see a 2011 in which he breaks the .300 BA barrier, hits 25 or so HRs to go along with 85 RBIs & he'll steal 40 bags and score 100 runs. Already Pittsburgh's best player of All-Star caliber, I'd like to see him here in the #3 hole so the Pirates can take advantage of all his offensive abilities in the heart of their order but even if management decides to lead him off, only a slight drop in RBIs will be the result. I'm tempted to consider him as a #1 fantasy outfielder but a very high #2 is probably more accurate.

 

4. 3B Pedro Alvarez - This budding slugger is just starting to get his bearings in MLB. Getting his Major League chops with the rest of the young Pirate hitters, this former 1st round pick exploded on the scene in his rookie year. In 347 ABs, he unloaded 16 HRs to go with 64 RBIs. Very capable of multi-HR games, his weakness is striking out at a prodigious pace which led to his somewhat low .256 BA. Until he has better plate discipline, the low BA and strikeout count will continue as evidenced by his spring (.240). As I'm not sure he'll master the strike zone in 2011, I'll project 27 HRs, 85 RBIs & a .250 BA for 2011. This would slot him as a very late starter at 3rd or an ideal back up corner infielder. Someone might jump the gun on this expecting a monster year but patience is warranted here until he has a better grasp of the strike zone.

5. 1B Lyle Overbay - Joining his 4th MLB team entering his 11th season, this veteran FA import from Toronto adds some experienced stability to a very young lineup. A career .274 hitter, he won't give you the power numbers of a typical starting 1st baseman. He did smack 20 HRs and drive in 67 a year ago but that was in a well stocked Blue Jay lineup playing half their games in a hitters haven. He's had a very productive spring hitting a torrid .395 and adding a surprising 3 HRs & 8 RBIs. Does this signal a power burst late in his career? Possible but unlikely as I see him hitting around .300 with 18 HRs and a solid 80+ RBIs in 2011. OK for a back up corner infielder, but short of the mark for a fantasy starter.

6. RF Garrett Jones - Another young Pirate hitter who has a bit more time in the majors. He made Pittsburgh sit up and take notice in his 2009 rookie season coming over from the Twins when he hit 21 HRs, knocked in 44 and hit a solid .293 in just 314 ABs. His 1st full season last year was a bit of a let down. After predictions of future stardom, he hit the same amount of HRs (though with 86 RBIs) in 592 2010 ABs and his BA plummeted to .247. A late bloomer closing in on 30 this summer, I think he'll rebound in a more potent lineup. Spring has not been kind to him yet and it seems he always starts off cold and warms up as the weather gets hotter. Not a draft candidate at this point but keep a close watch this year as signs of a turnaround seem likely.

7. SS Ronny Cedeno - Chiefly known for his defense, Cedeno is a marginal offensive player at this point and it is possible another young Pirate might be manning this spot early into 2011. A career .245 hitter with a little bit of power in his bat and the ability to steal for double digit bases in a season, he's not roster worthy at all.

8. C Chris Snyder - Given the starting assignment for 2011 after being acquired from Arizona last year, his .207 average shows how far Ryan Doumit has fallen out of favor in Pittsburgh. The Bucs are desperately trying to trade Doumit & his fat salary before the 2011 season begins but have found no takers so far. Snyder does have HR punch hitting 16 in 2008 & 15 last year combined but his low RBI totals indicate most of them come with no one on base. His career .229 BA speaks loudest to me and I don't want him anywhere near my fantasy roster.

Possibilities

RHP Bryan Morris - Reassigned on 3/12, 24 year old Morris would seem to be the 1st pitcher called up from AAA when the Pirate organization decides they need to infuse talent into their weak rotation. He admitted wearing down after throwing more than 133 innings between A & AA last year. He definitely has strikeout capability fanning 124 although sporting a somewhat inconsistent WHIP & ERA. A mid 90s fastball and two good breaking pitches will be his ticket to the bigs if he can show his stuff in the minors this spring. As the Pirates are desperate for starting talent, let's see what happens as the summer progresses.

   

SS/2B/CF Pedro Ciriaco - Tearing up spring pitchers to the tune of .343 with 2 steals in 35 ABs, the Bucs may be ready to make a change at SS. The 24 year old Dominican has the hitting chops to produce consistently at the Major League level. It's doubtful his frame is suited for power production but with the possibility of being able to hit .300, score a bunch of runs & steal at least 20 bags in a full season, he might be the starting shortstop for Pirates sometime in 2011.