ATLANTA BRAVES
Rotation
1. RHP Tim Hudson - At 35, Tim Hudson had a 2010 season that you could rank as one of his best. After 2 previous seasons hampered by injuries, Hudson returned to his best form. Never a strikeout machine (unless you count his rookie 1999 season), he induces ground balls from hitters with regularity. Some point to his 2010 BABIP that is 30 points below his average & say he won't be able to duplicate last year's numbers in 2011. I'm of the other opinion that he can based on his career ERA and win averages & he hasn't been slowed down other than those injuries. 17 wins and an ERA in the low 3.00s is certainly doable in 2011 but you won't get a bunch of Ks & another injury at his age could crop up again. I'd slot him as a middle of the pack 3rd starter.
2. RHP Derek Lowe - He's another Braves starter who keeps rolling along at 37, his strikeout numbers will resemble what you'd get from Tim Hudson and he might approach the 16 wins he got in 2010 again this year but will probably sport a higher ERA and WHIP. He could show up on a fantasy roster as a 4th or 5th starter but I'd rather look somewhere else.
3. RHP Jair Jurrjens - It's amazing how similar the 1st 3 starters in this rotation are. Jurrjens also won't wow you with his K numbers and his ERA could land anywhere between the mid 3.00s & mid 4.00s. His WHIP also won't help your team & he'll probably get you 10-13 wins. Though he did have fairly good seasons in 2008 & 2009, I'm going to fill out my starting staff elsewhere.
4. RHP Tommy Hanson - I am stunned that the most talented starter on this staff is slated in the number 4 hole. I suppose Braves management looks at career win totals and forms the rotation spots accordingly. This is the guy I will most actively pursue for my roster. Though he's only had 11 & 10 wins respectively in his 1st two years and 2010 was a bit of a regression, I expect a big breakthrough soon and this year could be it. He does have bouts of focus loss on the mound as every young pitcher has that sometimes leads to big innings by the opposition, but his tools are just too good. Look to his career 3.16 ERA & solid WHIP plus one of the best curves in the game to go with a mid to high 90s heater & he appears only a heartbeat away from a season to remember. I'm so convinced that you can count me among those who would take him as my 2nd starter early.
5. LHP Mike Minor - Minor appears to have the inside track on slot #5 as the rest of the rotation is right handed and a lefty is needed. Not showing much more than a almost 11 K per 9 IP ratio in 8 MLB starts, he rolled up almost a 6.00 ERA & a bloated WHIP. His fastball/curve/changeup arsenal should someday land him as a top of the rotation guy. He's baffled hitters in 2 spring starts so I'm on board. I'd wait until the decision is announced but he's fantasy staff worthy now. With him, Hanson & Beachy on board, Atlanta's near future rotation looks very bright.
Closer
RHP Craig Kimbrel - Right now the favorite to be the closer, being battered around this spring has caused the Braves to re-evaluate what they'll do on the back end. That's a shame for Kimbrel as he was nothing short of extraordinary in 21 2010 games. He rolled out a 0.44 ERA and an unworldly just under 2 Ks per inning pitched. I'm not sure Atlanta has decided to go with the dreaded "closer by commitee" as they do have the weapons on hand to try this. I think he'll be given every chance to right the ship before camp breaks and if he does, I'd enlist his services for my fantasy pen without a doubt. Wait until the Braves shake this situation out though before you pounce.
LHP Jonny Venters - Besides Beachy and Kimbrel, Venters could easily slide in as the main shut down 9th inning guy. If Kimbrel doesn't right the ship, look for possibly Venters and Kimbrel splitting duty depending on the hitting situation that presents itself at the end of the game. Venters has at least as much good stuff as the other two and a lefty always has a place at the end of the game. He might not have the insane strikeout numbers of the other two but proved his effectiveness in 2010 and could easily produce a K per IP ratio. This is a very interesting development as the season gets ready to start and bears close watching. All 3 candidates should be no lower than a #2 closer if they have the job to themselves but otherwise it is a gamble to draft them.
Lineup
1. LF Martin Prado - Improving on a good 2009 with an even better 2010, this all-star could just be hitting his stride since settling in as a full time starter. Of course his value was much more as a middle infielder before shifting to 1B last year and the outfield now for 2011. He's still capable of 20+ HRs, 70 RBIs and an average north of .300. He did wear down a bit last year in the 2nd half after his 1st year with a full load of ABs but I don't think that will repeat itself this year. No lower than a #3 outfielder and possibly considered a #2.
2. RF Jason Heyward - An early season injury derailed what could have been a monster rookie year but he still put up numbers worthy of a rookie of the year. Hitting at a .417 clip this spring, I see even better in 2011 if he's healthy with no lingering effects of last season's mishap. I'm not sure he'll ever put up monstrous HR totals but 30+ plus with 90-100 RBI and a BA well above .300 seems well within the norm. My only concern is that his leg injury from 2010 and other nagging aches this spring won't cut into the double digit steals he can produce yearly. I have to temper my enthusiasm by what might be a career of persistent injuries but he's no lower than a #3 outfielder for a fantasy team.
3. 3B Chipper Jones - As well as suffering through the decision to drop Heyward last year after it looked like his injury would drag on, Jones is the crutches poster boy I also had as my 3B starter in 2010, waiting too long to draft at 3B. We know the story: he cost me dearly only appearing in 95 games and he's only topped 128 games played twice in the last 6 years. Apparently still having pain in his surgically repaired knee, he's still tearing the cover off the ball this spring. As tough as he is and given the possibility the Braves could slide into the postseason in 2011, he'll always try to play through the pain. The running part of his game is long gone and having to play the field might wear him down even more. When he's right, he can still put very strong numbers across the board with the best of them but last year has scared me off. If the spring finishes with him in playing shape, I'd gamble no more than a back up corner infielder spot on him but he could go down at any time. With 39 around the corner this future Hall Of Famer may finally be succumbing to 2261 hard games played.
4. C Brian McCann - A perennial All-Star and producing top of his position fantasy numbers year in and out, he might be the 1st catcher off the board in a lot of 2011 drafts. His lower BA in 2010 is a slight concern but at 27 the hits should keep on coming and he'll even give you a handful of steals. Even the top catchers produce stats at a level of a 3rd outfielder but without an abundance of good hitting receivers, it is worth your while to have one on your team as the stat drop off is severe & rapid once this position starts coming off the board.
5. 2B Dan Uggla - Marlin free agent import brings plenty of punch to the middle of this line up. Add the .287 he hit last year and a few steals & you've got one of the top middle infield producers in the game. He hasn't hit yet this spring but don't be concerned as Atlanta plays well to his strengths. Don't wait too long as he'll come off the board fairly early.
6. 1B Freddie Freeman - This year's Atlanta phenom didn't do much in 24 at bats at the end of 2010 but he's hitting .310 this spring. He'll be given the job outright to lose and his Minor League pedigree suggests he will hit MLB pitching. I don't think he'll generate the power or give you the speed Heyward has to offer but might have a more than respectable year. Based on his press clippings, someone will probably draft him but I'm not biting just yet.
7. CF Nate McLouth - Not even the most pessimistic Braves fan could have predicted the miserable season McLouth had in his 1st full tilt with Atlanta. I think an outfield collision in June contributed mightily to his decline last year. I'm not sure if this is the shape of things to come but at 29, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Never one to hit for a high average, I expect all the other numbers (including steals) to rebound at least a bit as he wants to prove himself right. He's tearing it up this spring and I think he'll last a while in any draft. If you're looking for a last outfielder at the end of the draft, he might be sitting there and could give you some solid returns.
8. SS Alex Gonzalez - I was shocked by his power display last year as he has been anything but consistent throughout his career. The BA will remain low and the power should at least take a dip in 2011 as most of his damage was done in Toronto and the lights flickered a bit after moving over to Atlanta. If you can live with lower numbers across the board and no steals, to me he slots as a starter late in the draft if you need one or a capable fill in back up middle infielder for your roster.
Possibilities
RHP Brandon Beachy - Beachy is also being considered for a rotation spot & part of the closer puzzle. In 3 2010 appearances he sported a 3.00 ERA and a K per IP ratio. He should fit into the Braves plan somewhere in 2011 and in 2 spring appearances (1 start) has been as effective as Minor. He has the same equal quality pitches in his pocket as Minor does but might start the year somewhere in the pen. Also don't be surprised if he is given some save opportunities no matter how the closer role shakes out in 2011.
SS Diory Hernandez - Waiting in the wings if Gonzalez shows signs of faltering, Hernandez has shown very little in 94 MLB at bats. He may have turned the corner hitting .304 in winter ball & .308 this spring. He won't give you power like Gonzalez or surprisingly any steals but might give the Braves a source of runs at the bottom of the lineup.
RHP Julio Teheran - A mid 90s fastball & superior off speed pitches add Teheran to the list of potentially dominating Atlanta arms. The abundance of young pitching talent this team has waiting for a chance to prove themselves is potentially star studded. He's been spotless in 2 spring innings so far (though curiously without a K), but I doubt he'll begin the year with the big club. A call up before September is also unlikely due to Atlanta's pitching depth top to bottom but his stay in the minors could be short if an opportunity among Atlanta's veteran staff opens up.
No comments:
Post a Comment