MLB Fantasy Jump Start - St. Louis Cardinals

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Rotation

1. RHP Chris Carpenter - The Cards were dealt a low blow from the start as ace Adam Wainwright was lost for the season with a right elbow ligament injury that required Tommy John surgery. As co-ace in the rotation, Carpenter must now pick up the slack. Also known for a checkered injury past, the rotation all of a sudden looks shaky. Carpenter has taken the mound for 63 starts in the last 2 years winning 17 & 16 respectively in 2009 & 2010 while posting ERAs & WHIPs in those years that any other starter would envy. He's also been a very good but not great strikeout pitcher. Closing in on 36 & having the additional pressure caused by Wainwright's absence, can you expect 2011 to be as good or better than the previous 2 which rivaled almost anything he threw up on the board in his entire star-studded career? Well, he's been bounced around pretty good this spring but that was also the case last year. I have to think that age will dent his shiny armor at least a little this year but with the St. Louis offense behind him, 16-19 wins still sounds reasonable and even if the other numbers take a small dip in 2011, almost any fantasy player will line up to draft him high as their #2 man at worst.

 

2. RHP Jake Westbrook - With Wainwright out, everyone else moves up a notch. Westbrook, the Cleveland import from last year, settled in nicely after joining the Redbirds with a sparkling 3.48 ERA in 12 starts. His WHIP was high, he had a decent .262 average against & an OK strikeout ratio. What can he do with a full season in St. Louis? As I said, the Cards offense will allow him to win some games (I'm seeing 13) but I'm skeptical the other numbers will be so good. He'll probably stay in the rotation all year but I'm not so sure he 's buying into pitching coach Dave Duncan's urging to induce ground balls as he still thinks he can throw his marginal fastball past MLB hitters. I'm laying off this one.

3. LHP Jaime Garcia - The leftie's impressive 2010 campaign was essentially his rookie season. Though he did wear down a bit towards the end, that can be attributed to his 1st real taste of substantial innings pitched. Going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA & a solid .243 average against helps mitigate a somewhat high WHIP. He also struck out 7.3 batters per 9 IP. Will there be a sophomore season let down? It's possible but the talent to pitch at the Major League level is undeniable and the St. Louis organization must also think so jumping him ahead of Kyle Lohse in the rotation. 14-16 wins, an ERA still hovering around 3.00 & a decent amount of Ks is well within reach for 2011 so I'm slotting him as a #4 or #5 fantasy starter.

4. RHP Kyle Lohse - The veteran enters his 11th season at 32, getting a nice payout from the Cards after an atypically good season in '08. St. Louis may now think they've made a mistake as he's only won 10 games with a bloated ERA in the 2 successive years. I am of that opinion also as the rest of his pertinent career numbers can be called below average at best. He's been on fire this spring with a 1.80 ERA, .221 average against & 0.83 WHIP in 18 IP. I'm not fooled and neither should you be. When the bell rings he'll stay in most starts to probably accumulate 11-13 wins but the rest of his stats won't make you happy. I'd stay away here.

5. RHP Kyle McClellan - Last year's solid bullpen turn probably gives McClellan the leg up on the #5 spot in the rotation. The numbers from 2010 did look good (2.27 ERA, 1.08 WHIP & .210 average against) & he carried a 7K per 9 IP ratio as well but it remains to be seen if he stretch those out to achieve success as a starter. He's been nothing short of brilliant in 4 spring starts but that's only averaged 4-1/3 innings each so the results aren't all in. I prefer to wait until there's more to base a decision on but the potential & ability is there.

Closer

RHP Ryan Franklin - Franklin comfortably holds the closer's mantle after a failed attempt by the Cardinals to try flamethrower Jason Motte in that role 2 seasons ago. There's not much to find fault with either as he saved 38 in 2009 and followed that up with 27 out of 29 last year. The only draw back is he won't give you the strikeout totals you expect from a top of the line closer which, I think, was the reason for the Jason Motte experiment in the 1st place. All the other peripheral numbers look good as well and he's had a fine spring. He has the credentials to be a later drafted #1 closer but as I seek and desire a lot of Ks from this fantasy position, he's a mid #2 in my book.

Lineup

1. SS Ryan Theriot - The former Cub gets another chance here & he does have a .284 lifetime BA. I'm not sure he can carry the weight as a lead off man as his steal success rate has been relatively low since swiping  28 out of 32 in 2007. In the Cardinal lineup, he'll probably be reined in a little with Rasmus, Pujols & Holliday behind him but should still garner 15 -20 steals and score 70-80 runs. The key for him is to keep his OBP and BA up and if this spring is any indication, that might be tough. He can be considered as a late pick for a starter at SS but I see him as a back up middle infielder on a fantasy squad. 

2. CF Colby Rasmus - Rasmus had a few well documented run ins with manager LaRussa in 2010 but the former jewel of the organization's prospects still put quality numbers on the board (.276/23HR/66 RBIs/12 SB). His move to the #2 hole in the batting order is a good one to take advantage of his speed and ability to score runs. He should also see plenty of fat pitches with free agent to be Pujols & his menacing on deck presence behind him. For 2011, a .285 BA with 25 HRs, 70 RBIs & as much as 16 steals looks right. You can also probably throw in at least 100 runs scored with a better spot in the lineup so he'd fit nicely as a 3rd or 4th fantasy team outfielder.

3. 1B Albert Pujols - There's really not much you can say about Pujols as he's unanimously recognized as the #1 fantasy player in the game. Taking anyone else 1st would be a mistake. As he's just passed 31, there appears very little in the way of chinks in the armor. He has been more susceptible to injuries recently and of course that's a concern if you rely on him for monster stats each year. Right now, though, that can't be a concern as this student of the game is constantly polishing his hitting skills. Add a possible walk year to the mix which might bring the fattest contract ever seen in baseball as an incentive and he could put 55 HRs, 150 RBIs & a league leading BA on the board to go with his usual 15+ steals and 120 runs scored. Some see Hanley Ramirez as the #1 pick but I don't agree at all. He's as clear a #1 pick as there is in all of sports.

4. LF Matt Holliday - Holliday is another beneficiary of the lineup order following Pujols & he should also feast on plenty of fat pitches this year. His average of 26 HRs & 106 RBIs over the last 2 years could easily be shattered in 2011. With really no weaknesses in his game, he could project to having career numbers this year. A .320 average with 35 HRs & 120 RBIs to go with a dozen steals might be conservative. This is a high #1 fantasy outfield pick.

 

5. RF Lance Berkman - After a very unsuccessful 2010 pit stop with Yankees to beef up their stretch run, Berkman happily returns to a familiar NL. Now at a weathered 35, we wonder what this former All-Star fixture has left. He certainly is not the powerful hit machine he was in Houston anymore but a move to this stacked lineup might rejuvenate him a bit. Keep in mind he's really only 2 years removed from a long string of successful seasons. In St. Louis, he'll have to play outfield to stay in the lineup and that alone may take it's toll. I'd look for about 22 HRs, 68 RBIs & a BA in the .260 area for 2011. Not too bad but a total collapse is also possible with retirement looming. Perhaps a 5th fantasy outfielder or a nice back up corner infielder if he still qualifies at 1B. Multiple position eligibility also enhances his value.

 

6. 3B David Freese - There is absolutely no doubt Freese can hit MLB pitching with consistency. The chief concern is two straight seasons of being derailed by ankle injuries. It is quite possible this brittle state may follow his MLB career. When right, he's a .300 hitter who could also add some additional power to his game. Apparently healthy, he's torched spring pitchers at a .333 clip with 10 RBIs. That pace would surely keep him in the potent St. Louis lineup. I'm going to say he's fit for 2011 with 16 HRs, 80 RBIs & a BA in the .320s. Good enough for a late pick as a fantasy starting 3rd baseman or ideal as a back up corner infielder.

7. C Yadier Molina - A career .268 hitter with decent power, I don't expect much to change for him in 2011. Look for 6 HRs again, about 50 RBIs & an average in the high .250s. The unusual part is he's become something of a base stealing threat the last 2 years, swiping 17 over that span. I'm not a big fan of his offensive talents and wouldn't draft him as a #1 catcher. If you're looking for a few steals to pad your totals in 2011 and you're in a 2 catcher league, perhaps he'll find his way to your roster.

8. 2B Skip Schumaker - The Cards having experimented with Schumaker all over the lineup since his introduction to the starting squad in 2008. This year he sits at #8 and that might be best. After 3 successive seasons hitting over .300, he fell back quite a bit to .265 in 2010. With little power or base stealing ability, the decline in runs scored means his time to prove he belongs as a Cards starter might be growing short. He'll probably have to start off hot in 2011 to keep his job and if spring training can be used as a yardstick, his .421 average must carry over to the beginning of the St. Louis regular season. He could have some value as an in-season free agent pick up to improve your team's average but I doubt he'll find his way to very many fantasy rosters.

Possibilities

3B Matt Carpenter - Already reassigned, the golden boy of the Cards 2011 spring might be called upon if Freese falters or incurs another injury. He hit at a .340 pace with 3 triples and 7 RBIs but no MLB at bats to his credit yet may mean a full season in the minors. 

2B Dan De Scalso - Showing some promise in 34 2010 MLB at bats, DeScalso might be asked to step in soon if Schumaker doesn't hit right away. He has a little more pop and much more stolen base ability than Schumaker and has tuned up spring pitching at a .341 clip.

RHP Lance Lynn - Certainly picking up experience with a full 2010 season in AAA, Lynn might be the most polished of the Cardinal pitching prospects. He stunned with a 16K performance in the PCL playoffs. Lynn has 4 pitches (fastball, curve, slider & change up) he can baffle hitters with and has the ability to amass big strikeout totals in the majors. Without any time spent in St. Louis yet, an in-season 2011 call up looks more than likely. Given the state of the Cards rotation, that may be sooner rather than later.