OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Rotation
1. RHP Trevor Cahill - How this rotation gets slotted is still to be decided and I've seen Cahill listed as low as #4. He's not the kind of starter who'll give you anything close to good strikeout totals. Bouncing back from a less than effective rookie season in 2009, he was among the league leaders in ERA & WHIP while notching an impressive 18 wins. These numbers are that much more eye opening when you consider Oakland's offense was a bottom feeder in in AL runs scored. I'm not so sure he'll approach his 2010 win total this year and I'm fairly confident those superb ERA & WHIP numbers will go up but if he's not the #1 starter, it probably helps his value as he'll go against other team's lesser quality starters. He should rank as high as a #2 fantasy starter but I need good K numbers from the starters I go after so I rank him as a #3.
2. LHP Brett Anderson - His 2009 numbers should be assessed with the knowledge that he performed very well when taking the ball but injuries somewhat muddied the waters. He has much better K potential than Cahill & bested him in ERA & WHIP. He's started 2 games this spring throwing 8-1/3 total innings and though he's been cuffed around a bit, the 11Ks is the most relevant number. I'd see what his total spring innings reveal but I wouldn't hesitate to select him as a #2 or #3 starter.
3. LHP Dallas Braden - He of the 2010 perfect game & possible opening game starter did wind up with a good ERA & WHIP as well. Putting that aside, I'm more inclined to look at his higher career numbers in those categories and less than exciting strikeout totals. The 11 wins he posted last year might also be his water level. I actually think he'll regress in every area for 2011 so I'm not going after him on draft day.
4. LHP Gio Gonzalez - If we're talking about raw pitching ability alone, this is the starter on Oakland's staff who has those attributes. If it was me, I'd slot him #2 in this rotation. Control has always been his albatross but in spite of having to deal with that he posted a year in 2010 that a fantasy owner would gladly take. The WHIP will still remain high and the ERA probably will also inflate a bit as he'll need to harness his control better but I see possibly even better numbers than 2010 in wins (15) & strikeouts (171). Until he has better command, I can't recommend better than a #3 starter slot.
5. LHP Josh Outman - The #5 candidate for the rotation is still wide open. RHP Brandon McCarthy has plenty of unrealized potential & has pitched well this spring. With another injury this spring & the fact he's hardly ever ready to take the mound RHP Rich Harden can't be counted on at all. Outman might be given the shot here as well but I don't like his skill set either. I'd give McCarthy the chance but none are worthy of a draft roster spot now.
Closer
RHP Andrew Bailey - We all wondered why the A's would invest free agent money in another closer with Bailey fast becoming one of the best in the game. Well, it now appears that the move was wiser than we knew. Bailey has throwing elbow and forearm problems this spring after tossing just 1-1/3 innings of scoreless ball. Visiting Dr. James Andrews today (3/15) doesn't bode well and he lost about half of his 2010 season injured as well. As much as I like his ability, I can't take a chance of not getting immediate closer stats as the baseball season begins. I'd watch his injury status carefully but wouldn't select him on draft day.
LHP Brian Fuentes - The Oakland insurance policy for Bailey should step into the void & he's been spotless this spring. I've never been of the thought to rank him with the best closers in the game but opportunities and the A's being in a lot of close games thanks to their starters would have me draft him as a #2 or #3 closer if I'm sure he'll be the man on opening day.
Lineup
1. CF Coco Crisp - A leadoff hitter who can give you surprising power numbers for a fleet footed outfielder specializing in stolen bases. Injured for more than half the 2010 campaign, his numbers from last year projected over a full season would be very satisfying. His history shows an injury cropping up right when he starts getting into a good seasonal groove so beware of this happening. If the promise of double digit HRs, 60-70 RBIs, an average close to .300 & 40-50 steals entices you, take a shot. I won't select him higher than a 4th roster outfielder in spite of his gaudy spring stats.
2. RF David DeJesus - Another FA import, the ex-Royal seems well suited to batting 2nd. Oakland had to improve their lowly run scoring ability but 8 years of not quite there stats in KC is only part of what's needed. Most of his numbers will mirror what Crisp should do with better power and fewer steals but I'd be wary of drafting him higher than a last outfield roster spot filler at best.
3. LF Josh Willingham - Another FA piece to insert some offense into last year's mostly punch less lineup, Willingham has some respectable power numbers (about 20+ HRs/60+ RBIs per season) on his resume. He won't steal many bases or score a lot of runs and his average has hovered around .260 since hitting .304 in 2005 with the Marlins. He's also missed some considerable on field time the last 3 years due to injuries. He could be valuable as an in-season pick up but he's not on my draft day radar.
4. DH Hideki Matsui - A busy off season also landed Godzilla further up the West Coast. In essence the replacement for departed Jack Cust, an aging Matsui showed he can still deliver decent power numbers and an average close to .280. Injuries have also followed the slugger the past few years and he certainly doesn't have the lineup protection to produce as he did in Los Angeles so the numbers from 2010 (21 HR/84 RBI) could take a dip in 2011. Figuring his position eligibility at OF or 1B is gone further reduces his value. If I'm needing for a utility hitter late in the draft, I might look his way.
5. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff - His numbers peaking in his 2007 season with SD, it is unlikely that a major spike in stats is in his future. You can expect HRs in the 16-20 range, 70-80 RBIs & an average in the .260-.270 range. Not bad for a lower level starting 3rd baseman or a back up corner infielder but that's it. He's hitting .480 with a surprising 7 RBIs this spring already but don't expect that over the course of a season.
6. 1B Daric Barton - All alone with the 1st base job to start 2011, a career .260 hitter who did generate 10 HRs and 57 RBIs in his 1st full MLB season. This gives Oakland hope for more in 2011 but I don't see it. He won't give you the power numbers you need from a corner infielder and mired in the A's lineup won't help either. Leave him on the draft board.
7. C Kurt Suzuki - At 27, Suzuki started to realize his talent in 2009 & 2010 as one of the new wave of baseball's offensive minded young catchers. He did miss time last year so I'm more inclined to look at his 2009 totals (15/88/.274) as a jumping off point. 20+ HRs, 90 RBIs & a .280 BA is not only possible but probable as a conservative total for 2011. You could do a lot worse than him as your fantasy starter & I'd rather see him higher up in this batting order to take advantage of his RBI potential.
8. 2B Mark Ellis - Turning 34 this season & with recent injuries looming close by, Ellis has had years of surprising production for a middle infielder topping out with 19 HRs & 76 RBIs in 2007. Don't expect anywhere near that anymore. Perhaps 50 RBIs, a handful of HRs & stolen bases with an average around .270 might be realized if he holds up all year. That says take him if you really need a last middle infielder but I'll leave him be.
9. SS Cliff Pennington - Always showing a glimmer of promise but never delivering, Pennington has been remarkably consistent. He did steal 29 bags in his 1st season with substantial at bats last year but that might be his only game hitting in the .250 range with 50 RBIs and a handful of HRs. He would be useful later in the year if you're looking to fatten up your SB numbers but other than that, look elsewhere at this position.
Possibilities
OF Chris Carter - A 24 year old with massive power potential ala Mike Stanton, he hit 3 HRs & totaled 7 RBIs in 70 2010 ABs. On the flip side, his plate discipline and strikeout tendency showed in his .186 BA. Most of this was accumulated in a 0 for 33 start. He's showing the same kind of numbers this spring so unless he acquires a batting eye, this might be his MLB niche. I'm willing to wait a bit longer and I'm betting power starved Oakland is as well. Keep watch as I think he fits into the A's plans this year & if the free agent outfielders drag the team down this summer, they might be jettisoned so Carter can find a spot patrolling the A's grass this summer.
2B Eric Sogard - A lefty line drive hitter with the ability to consistently hit at the .300 level, he also has the swing to develop more pop than the average MLB middle infielder. He hit .429 in a brief 2010 September stint with the A's so he could be supplanting Ellis sooner than you think. He looks like half the face of Oakland's future middle infield if recently sent down SS Grant Green matures quickly as well.
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