MLB Fantasy Jump Start - Kansas City Royals

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Rotation

1. RHP Luke Hochevar - The #1 overall pick in the 2006 MLB draft, he has yet to show that promise at the Major League level. With Greinke departing for Milwaukee & Meche retiring, opposing hitters welcome the chance to face the Royals staff. A high career ERA, WHIP & average against further testify to the weakness of this rotation if he's #1 on it. He's pitched a little better this spring but doesn't deserve a spot on an opening day fantasy roster particularly when you consider he'll be facing other team's aces most of the time. The state of the rotation should be particularly frustrating to Royal fans as they are certainly building themselves a quality young offense.

 
2. LHP Jeff Francis - Finally leaving the hitter friendly atmosphere of Coors Field can only help this former Rockies top prospect. The injury bug has plagued him throughout his career so you tend to wonder if he's sturdy enough for the rigors of being a MLB starter. 2010 was no different as he spent time on the DL early with shoulder surgery. He's also been bounced around this spring but I still like his ability best of the current KC expected starting 5. I won't buy in though until I seem some positive & consistent results. Don't count on it.

3. RHP Kyle Davies - Now settling in to his 4th full season with the Royals, his numbers very closely match Hochevar's in all categories. Probably slated to be the 5th starter when the season opens, I'm not seeing any changes to a disappointing MLB history this year.

 
4. LHP Bruce Chen - It is unknown where exactly he'll slot in the rotation but the mere fact that KC resigned him indicates that he figures prominently in their 2011 plans. He did break out a fairly solid 2010 with 12 wins and a somewhat respectable ERA but his career numbers show me he can't get MLB hitters out on a regular basis.

5. RHP Vin Mazzaro or RHP Sean O'Sullivan - I've seen Oakland transplant Mazzaro listed as high as #2 in this rotation and he did have a bit of success for brief periods the last two years. Unfortunately, his overall numbers too much resemble the rest of the KC staff so I won't buy in yet. O' Sullivan is also in the mix but I think either he or Davies will be the odd man out unless someone gets hurt. Same story as his brief career numbers mirror the rest of the woeful KC starters though he has had a good spring so far. I wouldn't expect that to carry over into the season. 

Closer

RHP Joakim Soria - No issues about who the man is in KC here. Easily the team's MVP by light years, he's put together 4 superb seasons in this role. A top shelf closer who'll still give you plenty of saves (he topped out at 43 last year) & high K totals as the KC offense should keep them in plenty of close games so he could have more than enough chances to strut his stuff. I wouldn't be put off by his terrible spring as he has a history of performing that way. A true #1 fantasy closer.

Lineup

1. 3B Mike Aviles - Quietly doing a wonderful job as a part time player for two years, Aviles got the chance to log 400+ at bats in 2010 and came through with his bench mark .300+ BA and double digit steals. He's slated to begin the year as the starting 3rd baseman in 2011 & he's tearing it up with some power as well this spring. There are rumblings that KC wants a bit more power from this position & is considering giving Wilson Betemit a shot here. I think that would be a mistake and this is a short solution as this position is a place holder for Moustakas anyway. I would definitely consider drafting Aviles for my roster as he'll move to either 2B or SS when Moustakas is ready and he'll probably deliver solid middle infielder numbers (I'm sure he's eligible at both for 2011 and soon at 3B).

2. CF Melky Cabrera/Lorenzo Cain - The well traveled Cabrera must figure into KC's plans in some way as they did sign him as a FA. I am not satisfied that he'll ever put up solid offensive numbers though hitting .500 this spring will help his cause. Waiting backstage (but probably not for very long) is Cain, another in a long list of potential star prospects we all hope KC will be able to hold onto for a while. He's also hit well this spring and has better ability to steal bases than Cabrera. He showed no awe in a brief stint with the Brewers last year (he was part of the Greinke deal) hitting .306 & stealing 7 bags. He does need to find a way to score more runs. It is possible this might begin as a platoon with Cabrera being a better hitter left handed and Cain a righty. I see him slowly becoming the starter as the year moves on so watch what happens.

3. DH Billy Butler - This is the Royals best overall and most consistent young hitter. Moving to DH as he approaches 25 also speaks to his somewhat limited defensive prowess. He won't put up the power numbers of the top tier 1st basemen but will give you solid RBIs and a .300+ BA. KC has some options moving forward at 1B also but as a 2nd 1st bagger or utility hitter, he's at the top of that list.

 
4. 1B Kila  Ka'aihue - This is a very interesting player. Languishing as a part time fill in for the Royals in 2008, he got 180 at bats in 2010 and caught the team's attention with his power potential, coming on hot late in the year. I'm a believer but his window of opportunity is very short as Hosmer is breathing down his neck. I for one am on board and his spring with a .333 average, 3 HRs and 8 RBIs further convinces me. Later in the draft, I'd try to find a way to wrangle him on my fantasy roster with the promise of some surprisingly worthwhile production.

5. RF Jeff Francoeur - The ex-Brave phenom hasn't been able to duplicate his eye popping 2006 & 2007 performances in Atlanta since then. He did hit .340 in Texas as his 2nd stop in 2010 but his career .268 BA is more indicative of what you'll get as he hasn't honed the ability to go to all fields. I see decent HR and RBI numbers but perhaps even a lower BA (he's only hitting .160 this spring). his power numbers have also stabilized so that in regular playing time you can expect HRs in the mid teens and RBIs in the low 60s at best. Given the starting nod for now in 2011, he's draftable as a late roster filler.

 
6. LF Alex Gordon - Hardly anyone was more heralded a prospect than Gordon but his chance to make good on those reports may be coming to an end. There's no doubt he has the power to put up good HR & RBI numbers but hasn't been able to convert his talent into MLB results. His spring numbers mirror what he's been able to do in his career so nothing has changed yet. With a wave of young KC hitters ready to make a big league splash, its now or never and I'm not sure he'll make it.

7. C Brayan Pena - Jason Kendall is already hurt and I'm sure Pena would have been given the starting opportunity in any case this year. He did hit .309 over 21 starts at the end of last when Kendall was injured but his career history doesn't seem to predict any offensive advancement. He's hitless in 14 spring at bats but his defense and arm might be enough to man the position for now. That doesn't qualify him for a fantasy baseball roster.

8. SS Alcides Escobar - Another element of the Greinke trade, speed is his biggest asset. He did hit .304 for the Brewers in 125 2009 at bats and is still young enough to find his MLB stroke. He is hitting .300 with a pair of SB in 20 spring at bats so perhaps this can carry over into the season. Long range seems to indicate the Royals will give him every chance to win the job & move Aviles to 2B when Moustakas is ready and have a solid infield for as long as they can hold onto their players. Watch what happens with him but I don't think I'd draft him yet unless really scrambling to find a middle infielder very late in your draft. He could reward with a bunch of steals.

9. 2B Chris Getz - Just entering his 4th MLB season at 27, speed is also his forte. Unfortunately, I think he has less ability as a hitter than Escobar and his stay at the starting 2nd baseman's job might be very short. He's not hitting this spring either so bench duty probably awaits.

Possibilities

3B Mike Moustakas - The jewel of the KC farm system, his stay in the minors will probably be brief. The only thing possibly holding back this young slugger with star potential is small market team's strategy of waiting until June to call up their prospects to retain another year of exclusive rights. Getting his feet wet with 20 spring at bats for the Royals so far, it is clear that he'll be ticketed for the minors to start 2011. Expect to see him at 3B for the Royals sometime this summer so watch his progress carefully. Moustakas could provide quite a 2nd half lift to your fantasy team's offensive numbers.

LHP Tim Collins - Small of stature but with a fastball that has the ability to whiz past many MLB hitters, Collins could find his way to the KC bullpen when camp breaks. It is unknown right now if he fits into the Royals plan as a future replacement for Soria at closer when his free agency looms or as a spark in a very weak rotation. I'd vote to stretch him out as a starter. He's been solid this spring with a 1.80 ERA and a K per inning ratio & whether he goes north with the team or not, it is a very real possibility he might be in the KC rotation this summer.

1B Eric Hosmer - Another young slugger awaiting his chance to join a potentially powerful future KC lineup, there's very little chance he'll break camp with the big club. For now, Ka'aihue will be given the chance to start and I'll think he'll produce. He's ripping up spring pitchers to the tune of .400 with 2 HRs & 6 RBIs but will probably start 2011 in AA, get a fast promotion to AAA if he hits & be in KC for a September call up. KC fans must be drooling about the murderer's row potential the Royals lineup could have in a few years. now about that pitching.....

LHP John Lamb - Pitching at 3 levels in 2010 and leading the KC farmhands in Ks & ERA, Lamb's fastball & superior off speed stuff may put him on the fast rack to KC bound for a rotation in desperate need of help. Lack of game exposure this spring means he'll definitely start the season in the minors but with the Royals current starter woes, his elite abilities may land him in KC by June.