BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Rotation
1. RHP Jeremy Guthrie - More than likely to be given the ball in the O's opening game, he had a decent year in ERA & WHIP while managing to win 11 games. Oriole starters will benefit greatly by the infusion of veteran power bats and three possible remedies at the back end of the bullpen. You'd like to think that this will translate into increased win totals for Guthrie but he has a snake bitten history of little run support & imploding later in the games he starts. He's a fairly solid starter but the factors mentioned & his lack of great K numbers limits his stat ceiling. I wouldn't draft him higher than a #4 starter.
2. LHP Brian Matusz - Matusz recently had a wart removed from his throwing hand but in true warrior fashion, he's back and ready to go. While his overall 2010 numbers don't look impressive, I think his 2nd half stats (7-3/3.63 ERA/1.19 WHIP) are more indicative of what you'll get this year. I also believe that he has the ability to have a very good K/IP ratio & have a real breakout 2011. Draft him as a #2 or #3 starter for your fantasy team & you'll be happy with the results.
3. RHP Justin Duchscherer - There is no doubt he has the ability to get MLB hitters out on a regular basis (career 3.13 ERA & 1.14 WHIP). The problem is he has trouble logging enough innings to get wins. This is due to a long history of injuries. He's already been bothered by a sore left hip this spring and hasn't made a spring appearance as of this post (due to start on 3/8). You won't get good strikeout totals either as he is a pitch to contact type. If he solves the injury bug long enough to amass some innings in a season, he'd be a pitcher you want on your team. Until then, I'm staying away.
4. RHP Brad Bergesen - Another pitch to contact starter, Bergesen also had his share of injury troubles in the front part of 2010. He did rebound after coming back in the 2nd half but I remain unconvinced. In two spring starts, he's been bounced around and I want to see more evidence that he can be a quality MLB starter.
5. RHP Jake Arrieta - Like Matusz, Arrieta has plenty of pitcher tools to succeed at the major league level. His black and white numbers from his initial big league season last year don't look good but I think most young pitchers need at least 1 year to get acclimated to the MLB atmosphere and hitters. Count me among his fans and keep watch as the season progresses. More than likely, someone will pick him up and get good results in 2011.
Closer
RHP Koji Uehara - A Japanese import from 2009, he was a pleasant surprise in 2010 after given the closer's role (2.86 ERA/13 saves from 15 chances/55 K in 44 IP/0.95 WHIP). He has all the bench mark tools a closer needs and has solved MLB hitters after a lukewarm 2009. The problem is that the O's acquired Gregg to take over this role in 2011. Add Mike Gonzalez to the mix (throwing in the mid 90s this spring) and the closer picture becomes unclear. Unfortunately for Uehara, this is not a reward for a job well done. Until we know exactly what Showalter has in mind for his closer role, you'll be taking a chance drafting him or any other Oriole closer high.
RHP Kevin Gregg - An off season free agent acquisition, it appears he'll be given the initial shot at closing. He did convert 37 saves last year & has a decent K/IP ratio but also blew 6 saves & had an ugly WHIP. He has blown more than his share of saves in the last 4 years so going to a hitters paradise may further hurt his performance. He appears to be a #2 closer on most fantasy teams but I'm not buying.
Lineup
1. 2B Brian Roberts - With all the power bats added this off season, the Baltimore offense still goes as does their switch hitting spark plug. When healthy, this is a second baseman you want on your team. Even aside from his injury plagued 2010 season, he's had nagging aches and pains this spring. I'm willing to take a chance on him as he'll deliver top of the line numbers across all 5 offensive categories. Follow his spring closely but be ready as this is a productive starting fantasy 2B on any team.
2. RF Nick Markakis - His power disappeared last year but I'm of the thought that this is atypical of an All-Star caliber player (he already has 2 HR this spring). His swing and consistency is just too good. I expect to see great improvement in all 2011 offensive numbers though you won't get a lot of stolen bases from him. Slot him as a very solid #2 or #3 fantasy outfielder.
3. 1B Derrek Lee - Injuries played a key role in his 2010 season but keep in mind he had a monster 2009 when he also hit .306 (he's a career .282 hitter). Moving to the AL and into a hitter friendly ballpark in the middle of a suddenly powerful lineup also has to help. At 35, he may not have many great years left but this could be a good one. I'm not quite ready to give up the ship so if you're looking for power help as a back up 1st baseman, you might like the results.
4. DH Vladimir Guerrero - Quite a resurgence in 2010 for one of baseball's former most feared hitters. The defensive skills and the legs are gone (though he still managed to steal 4 in 2010) but his new ballpark & lineup adds to the real possibility that he could approach last year's numbers again. If he's eligible at OF for fantasy purposes, that makes him much more attractive. This is someone I'd rather have on my team than not.
5. LF Luke Scott - Deadly at home and against right handed pitching, Scott is capable of have monster streaks for a week or two at a time. Conversely, he can also go ice cold particularly on the road and vs. lefties for long periods. Though being given the starting nod in LF, this year may yield a carousel at this position, 1B & DH depending on match ups. Reimold & Pie are definitely in the mix for playing time here as well. His 0 for 12 spring so far doesn't inspire confidence so I'm not sure I'd draft him.
6. 3B Mark Reynolds - I can understand Showalter's reasoning to break up Baltimore's sudden infusion of right handed hitters though I'd like to see him bat 4th. No doubt the high strikeout totals will continue, particularly getting to know AL pitchers but moving to the AL for usually 1 more at bat in a game, into a homer friendly ballpark & smack dab in the middle of a lineup pitchers aren't going to like facing looks like monster power numbers are possible. I think you'll see at least some improvement over all of his 2010 numbers including a spike in stolen bases (he swiped 24 in 2009 so he has that ability). I'd take him as my starting third baseman if not drafting another early.
7. CF Adam Jones - The 1st of 2 young puzzles in the Oriole lineup. I'm not sure batting 7th is where I'd put Jones. He has all the tools to be a star MLB outfielder but started to alter his approach at the plate last year with mixed results. If he can get back to hitting to all fields instead of trying to pull everything and use his speed better, I think he might potentially become an All-Star again. I'd rather see him hitting higher in this lineup but slot him as a #3 fantasy outfielder for now.
8. C Matt Wieters - Here's puzzle #2. With his approach at the plate, ability to switch hit well from both sides & physical attributes, he should be a top of the line fantasy catcher. As a much heralded prospect, he's failed to completely deliver in his 1st 2 MLB seasons. I still look at the raw talent & what he's done so far this spring (5/14, 3 RBI) and feel he will break out soon. He could be the best #8 hitter in any team's lineup. I also feel his latent power might soon arrive. If your team needs 2 catchers, this could be the year he gives you the results you want from a historically weak offensive position.
9. SS J.J. Hardy - Brought in strictly as an offensive upgrade over last season's dismal production at this spot, I'm not exactly sure what to expect. The latent power is there as his years in Milwaukee attests to but you'll have to suffer through low runs scored, BA & stolen bases for the better players at this position. Is it worthwhile? For reasons I mentioned before, those power numbers could be quite impressive in this change of scenery. In limited spring at bats, he has a decent BA but will that transfer to the regular season? At best, I'd wait it out a bit or draft him late if you need a back up SS.
Possibilities
LHP Zach Britton - This appears to be the 1st call up if there's trouble in the rotation. A spotless slate in 5 spring IP so far, Britton has little left to prove in the minors. As with the other young Baltimore starters, all the tools are in place for MLB success. A mid 90s fastball coupled with a lethal sinker called by scouts as the best in the minors, his rise to the Oriole rotation might be swift. More than likely, he'll start in the minors but might get the call up by June & take his place with those other young arms as the foundation back to Baltimore prominence.
OF Nolan Reimold - Can't put the prospect tag on this 27 year old anymore as he's spent parts of the past 2 seasons in Baltimore with mixed results. Another factor going against him is that the O's are suddenly right hand hitting heavy. This might induce Showalter to give Felix Pie 1st shot at an opening. As I've said, I think the plan is for 5 players (Reimold & Pie in addition to starters Guerrero, Scot & Lee) to be rotated among LF, 1B & DH this year so he'll have to make an impact quickly. All the major league offensive tools are there but he hasn't displayed them consistently at the MLB level yet. He's tearing the cover off the ball this spring so far but that has also happened in the past. He'll more than likely be on the big club to start but must take advantage of any playing time right away. Monitor this situation.
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