LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Rotation
1. LHP Clayton Kershaw - It has only taken Kershaw three seasons to climb to the top of the Dodger starting staff. Very impressive for only 85 starting appearances. He's been very solid the last 2 with at least 30 games started in each of those years and no higher than a 2.91 ERA. So why has he only won 8 & 13 games respectively? Part of the reason is he usually throws a lot of pitches in his starts and has only averaged a flat 6 innings pitched in those 62 2009 & 2010 starts. The length of his average game stay is increasing as he matures to the point that his average for 2010 was 6-1/3 innings. It is unlikely that will change much more as he strikes out and walks a lot of batters during a typical game. He has a top of the line K ratio and it is amazing his ERA & WHIP remain so low with all the free passes he hands out. His control should get better as he's only 23 now. If the Dodger bullpen stabilizes a bit more in 2011, there's no reason he shouldn't keep all his fine numbers plus collect 16-17 wins. A #1 fantasy starter but not at the elite tier yet.
2. RHP Chad Billingsley - This heralded Dodger prospect seems to have been pushed to the background with the emergence of Kershaw. Still only 26, his numbers compare favorably with Kershaw & HE HAS WON as many as 16 in a season. His career 3.55 ERA look great unless you put it next to his rotation mate & while his K rate isn't as strong as Kershaw's, he has surpassed a K per inning rate once (2008) and can easily do so again. He also throws a lot of pitches in a game and has about the same staying power as Kershaw. Moving to #2 in the rotation may alleviate some of the pressure he feels to perform & he could return to that 2008 form (though he's been pitching very well through his whole Dodger life) this year. He may not have the K totals Kershaw puts up but he'll come close to matching him in the other pertinent categories and win 18 or so. I'd slot him as a mid #3 starter for 2011.
3. LHP Ted Lilly - Another Dodger starter who's carried a sterling ERA over the past two years. Turning it on in 2009 & 2010, he slashed his career ERA of 4.18 to the low and mid 3.00s. He went 7-4 with a 3.52 ERA after coming over from the Cubs last year. He's also no slouch in the K department (but not the whiff machine Kershaw & Billingsley are) but gets by on pitches other than his fastball. He's always posted very good average against numbers but has whittled his WHIP down to around 1.00 over that 2 year span. All the Dodger starters do have the advantage of throwing half their games in a notorious pitchers park so that may account for some of these fantastic numbers but Lilly seems to be getting better with age. Though he's been batted around this spring (10.50 ERA in 6 IP), he should be fine when the season begins. A good mid-level #5 starter for a fantasy team.
4. RHP Hiroki Kuroda - Most MLB teams wish they could go 4 deep in their rotation with this kind of quality. Again qualifying that Dodger Stadium is where a Major League pitcher wants to throw, Kuroda's 3 seasons with Big Blue since coming over from Japan show strikingly similar stats to their other starting hurlers. Averaging a little over 9 wins per season, a 3.60 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP & a .247 average against, he also falls in line with Billingsley as to K ratio. Resembling the rest of the staff averaging 6 innings per start in his MLB career, I can only conclude that not being able to go deeper into games and therefore relying on their bullpen has cost the Dodger starters their win totals. This may also be true in 2011. I rank Kuroda a little better on the totem pole than Lilly as a fantasy #5 starter.
5. RHP John Ely - Ely joins the rotation after a less than stellar rookie campaign in 2010. In 18 starts he won 4 games to a bloated ERA of 5.49. He's in there due to the injuries sustained by Jon Garland & Vicente Padilla. They both could be out awhile but at least a month. Though a ground ball pitcher with a decent K ratio, he gives up the Home Run ball far too regularly and that's not an easy feat at Dodger Stadium. I'd stay far away here but since we're on the subject of Jon Garland....he did win 14 in cavernous Petco Park while sporting a career best 3.47 ERA. History points to his much higher 4.32 along with miserable average against and WHIP numbers to create a detonation device just looking for a place to explode. Not having much strikeout ability to boot, I can't understand why teams love to have him on their staff. I guess he's the proverbial "innings eater" who'll usually hang around long enough to sometimes get the win. Don't forget that in addition to the 14 wins last year, he also lost 12. When he's ready to come back it is "buyer beware" & I'm not going to that store.
Closer
RHP Jonathan Broxton - The usually automatic Broxton was so shaky during part of 2010 that he was actually demoted for a time. So what could have happened? Well, 1st of all he's always blown a lot of saves (21 in the last three years). You can't argue with his almost unreal K ratio but now as he nears 27, carrying that 300 pounds on a 6'-4" build might be part of the endurance problem as the summer drags on. 2010 also revealed a high .270 average against and a bloated 1.48 WHIP which is nothing close to anything he's sported before. He'll be back in the saddle again when Los Angeles opens the regular season but he's carried a miserable 6.75 ERA this spring which may be an omen of things to come in 2011. The Dodgers won't hesitate to replace him in that role again if he stumbles & they have at least two or three viable candidates (LHP Hong-Chih Kuo & RHP Mike MacDougal are 2 & I'll mention the other later). He's certainly a closer who should be drafted but I'm ranking him way too low to get him (by design) as I'm afraid he'll implode again this year.
Lineup
1. SS Rafael Furcal - When he's on the field, he's the spark plug that makes the Dodger offense go and perhaps part of the reason LA missed the playoffs is he missed significant time in 2010 to injuries. In 97 games, he still managed to steal 22 bags & hit .300 so his skills don't seem to have been compromised so far. He also played in only 38 games in 2008 so he's no stranger to the DL. At 33, it's unclear if another ailment looms around the corner in 2011 so if you select him, you'd better have a good back up plan. If he plays a full season, he'll hit close to .300 again, steal close to 30 bases and perhaps even score 100 runs. That's worthy of a good starting SS for fantasy purposes but caution is advised.
2. 1B James Loney - How the lineup shakes out since Casey Blake begins the season with a sore back and probably not ready for opening day is a guess but I look for Loney in the #2 hole. You know the story here: a career .288 hitter who drives in 80-90 runs in a good year & could hit double digit steals but doesn't have the HR power you look for in a 1st bagger (15 is his best total). I don't expect this to change in 2011 but a swollen knee this spring raises the warning flag as that could also affect his ability to leg out doubles and steal those bases. In my mind, I wouldn't go after him as my 1st base starter & he'll be long gone by the time I get around to seeking him out as a back up corner infielder.
3. RF Andre Ethier - Ethier was counted on to be the main power plant in LA but that didn't materialize to Dodger expectations in 2010. After smacking 31 round trippers and driving 106 in 2009, he regressed quite a bit last year with 23 & 82 in those respective categories. Curiously, the average went up 20 points close to his career .291 so what can we expect in 2011? I think somewhere in between the last 2 is a good yard stick (27 HRs/91 RBIs & an average a little lower at .280). Good enough to draft him fairly high (a #2 or #3) on the outfield pecking order.
4. CF Matt Kemp - All hype aside, it does now appear that Kemp is overall the Dodgers best offensive weapon. After a stellar campaign in 2009, he was expected to put up MVP type stats in 2010. While that didn't happen and he actually dropped back in most of the numbers, his year was nothing to sneeze at (28 HRs/89 RBIs/19 steals) other than the huge 48 point drop in BA. I do think he'll rebound to numbers closely resembling a fantasy player slotted in the middle of the 1st round by most experts last year to hit close to .300 with 36 HRs, over 100 RBIs & steals in the mid 20s. A high 2nd round pick at worst.
5. 3B Juan Uribe - Will probably slot in the #2 spot with Loney here when Blake returns but I am constantly amazed at the production Uribe gives with a swing that can best be described as undisciplined. At 33 and playing for the World Champion San Francisco Giants last year, he belted out a career high 24 HRs and 85 RBIs in a park not condusive to cheap power. I honestly don't know what to make out of this because he certainly doesn't look like he's in shape carrying 230 pounds on a 5'-11" frame. He'll find the sledding a bit harder in LA and I'll predict 14 HRs, 66 RBIs and a typical .250 BA. Far below 2010 stats but still good for a lower end starting 2nd baseman as most others will have less power but a higher BA and steals as well. If he hangs on long enough to gain eligibility at 3rd, that's a plus. Go figure.
6. LF Jay Gibbons/Marcus Thames - This platoon should drift down to the 7th spot after Blake comes back and neither is worthy of being drafted on their own merits. Thames can hit left handed pitching and provide some power (I'd say 12 HRs/40 RBIs & a .270 BA) & Gibbons is a long way from the Oriole power hitting prospect that hit more than 23 HRs three times from 2002-2005 (he even drove in 100 RBIs in 2003). He did hit .280 last year but that combined with about the same power totals I projected for Thames won't win either a roster spot.
7. 2B Jamey Carroll - Moving over to 2nd while Uribe mans 3rd in Blake's absence, Carroll is a career journeyman/utility player. He has a surprising .276 BA and can steal double digit bases in a season but will be out as soon as Blake is ready to go. As long as we're here, when Casey Blake returns to 3rd, it shouldn't be to much fanfare. Hitting at a career .264 (he did worse in 2010 at .248), he might hit 20 HRs & garner 70 RBIs. Perhaps a good in-season FA pick up if he gets hot for awhile, or a back up corner infielder if you missed the boat on that earlier in your draft.
8. C Rod Barajas - Coming over from the Mets in mid-season last year, the Dodgers must have been planning to let Russell Martin go this off season all along. He does have enough occasional power to hit about 20 in a best case scenario but won't drive in many runs (he did get to 71 once). He'll also drag your team average down plowing along at about .240. If you need to add some homers from a 2nd catcher's position, this might be OK to fill out your fantasy roster but for me, the bad outweighs the good.
Possibilities
2B Ivan De Jesus Jr. - Son of the former Major Leaguer of the same name, he didn't get a September call up last year. With not much power but capable of hitting .300 at the major league level, he also gets on base and can score runs. A SS by trade, he could be groomed to replace Furcal or Uribe depending on who falls apart 1st.
OF Xavier Paul - Paul is finally showing some of the power & speed the Dodgers expected to see from him. After 2 unremarkable call ups in 2009 & 2010, he's hit at a .293 clip in 41 spring at bats with 2 HRs. At 26, his chances to break through may be very limited but with left field far from settled, he could squeeze in this year.
LHP Kenley Jansen - This is the one I think should be groomed for the closer's role if Broxton can't keep it together. Somewhat similar in stature to Broxton at 6'-5", he's a much better physical specimen at 255 pounds. Able to throw premium gas from the pump of his right arm, he was barely touched in his 1st big league exposure of 25 2010 games. When called upon, he converted all 4 of his save chances striking out 41 in 27 innings with an 0.67 ERA, .130 average against & 1.00 WHIP. This K machine might be the next big splash in the ranks of MLB closers.
Rubby De La Rosa - It may be a bit premature to sound the trumpets on him yet but I feel this is the next entry into the Dodgers rotation. Never having any time in the bigs, his 1st spring in 2011 shows a 1.80 ERA in 4 games (2 starts) with 7 Ks in 10 IP. He's also baffling hitters with a 0.70 WHIP & .125 average against. With a fastball that touches 95 & an 84-86 MPH hard change up, this slim 170 pounder who just turned 20 has the stuff to Rub(by) hitters the wrong way. Look for him soon but perhaps not this year.
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