COLORADO ROCKIES
Rotation
1. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez - Though fading a bit after the All-Star break, Jimenez is becoming a star quality ace if he's not already considered one. Improving his numbers for the 3rd year in a row he posted a Cy Young worthy 19-8 record with a 2.88 ERA, .209 average against, 1.15 WHIP & 214 Ks in 221-2/3 innings. Add to this that he took the mound for at least 33 starts for the past three years and pitches half his games in a still hitter friendly Coors Field. At 27, he could even have more to show baseball fans. If he can stay away from injuries & find a way to improve his stamina towards the end of the season, he could win more than 20 with ease and keep or best the rest of his wonderful stats also. A true 1st starter ace who could easily become the best starter in baseball.
2. LHP Jorge De La Rosa - Also a victim of some 2nd half fatigue, his strikeout rate dropped as the season went along. The final 2010 numbers didn't look impressive as he only won 8 compared to 16 in 2009 and his ERA still hovered in the low 4.00s. Not much to put on your resume & a real step back after emerging as a potent starter in 2009. Part can be blamed on a finger injury which limited him to only 20 starts & 121 innings. He had a good .235 average against but got into trouble by walking more batters than he should have. This may be a chronic problem as he's the kind of strikeout pitcher that can get to 9K per 9 IP. Coming up on 30, time may be short for him to straighten out his mechanics. He's still a viable starter for the back end of a fantasy rotation as long as it is realized that having him is a great risk/great reward gamble.
3. RHP Jhoulys Chacin - This 23 year old got his 1st taste of substantial innings and starts last year. He responded by winning 9 and posting a solid 3.28 ERA in 21 starting shots. Add a career 9.2 K per 9 IP and we have to sit up and take notice. He's assured of a spot in the rotation but may switch with Hammel and slot #4. The only concern is he gives up a lot of walks which inflates his WHIP. His arsenal includes a plus fastball and nasty breaking pitches. I know he's still mastering his craft but has the innate ability and stuff to succeed well at the major league level. He's done well this spring except for a lower K rate but he bears watching. I'm not sure you'd want to gamble a roster pick just yet but something tells me he'll find his way to a lot of fantasy rosters this summer.
4. RHP Jason Hammel - Hammel has given the Rocks over 176 innings & 10 wins for two years in a row. Pretty good for the back end of the rotation kind of guy. On occasion during the season he'll bust out bursts of higher K totals but don't count on this with any consistency. He'll do all right in that respect but the career warning signs of an ERA over 5.00, hitter friendly WHIP & average against numbers doesn't qualify him for a fantasy roster spot on opening day. If he has one of those bursts during the season and you're quick enough, he might boost you pitching stats for a week or two during the year.
5. RHP Esmil Rogers - It is not certain who gets spot #5 but Rogers looks like the lead candidate. Aaron Cook has a broken finger, John Maine has been given enough chances to come around & Felipe Paulino hasn't done well this spring. Rogers also has very bad career tell numbers across the board & has been less effective than Paulino this spring. It is the heat that intrigues the Rockies though and they may also be looking at his very unlucky 2010 strand rate to give him the shot this year. I don't know how soon Cook will be ready & Paulino's ceiling is probably higher so if he doesn't hit the ground running, this might be a short rotation stay. None of three mentioned here should be on an opening day fantasy roster.
Closer
RHP Huston Street - Though there is no doubt Street is the lone closer in Colorado, his frequent injuries the past couple of years maybe too much for the Rockies to deal with on a consistent basis. After each mending period, it has also taken some time to get back to effectiveness. Colorado will probably stick with him for now as his more than a strikeout per inning career ratio, very good ERA, WHIP & average against is very hard to find elsewhere. Still only 27, there is also a bit of concern in his consistency as he blew 5 of 25 save chances in 2010. Let's chalk it up to last year's injuries as his track record when healthy speaks for itself. A mid to late #1 fantasy closer.
Lineup
1. CF Dexter Fowler - Given the opportunity to lead off again in 2011, the open portal may soon be closing. There's no doubting his speed but a decline from 2009 to 2010 in stolen bases from 27 to 13 leaves a concern that he might not be an adept baserunner. Of more concern is his career .259 BA. Again, since he's not swinging for the fences, perhaps he needs more instruction in how to use his speed to get more leg hits. He hasn't be able to find that solution yet as his spring average is right at his career mark again. If he can hone his game to use his abilities, his mark of 70+ runs scored will also go up dramatically. Until we see concrete results, I can't recommend him any more than a last roster outfielder but that's a stretch also. A spring quad injury may also slow him down to begin 2011. I'll be leaving him alone on draft day unless I completely forget to draft other base stealers who can also hit.
2. RF Seth Smith - Years as a Rockie platoon player and part timer end this year as he gets the starting gig in left field. While Ryan Spilborghs will steal some at bats vs. lefties, he should still amass more than the 358 he garnered in 2010. Last year was the 2nd in a row that he got more than 350 at bats and he has delivered similar power numbers both times. Averaging 16 HRs and RBIs in the mid-50s may be his water mark unless given the chance to get 500+ at bats in a season. 2010 also saw his average dip 47 points and 25 points lower than his career .271 mark. I think what he's put up in 2009 & 2010 is indicative of what 2011 holds. Unless he gathers himself to bring that average back up to improve his runs scored total, he looks like a late fantasy selection or an in season pick up during a hot streak.
3. LF Carlos Gonzalez - No one in MLB had a bigger coming out party than CarGo in 2010. Taking 2 years to develop after coming over from Oakland as an A's top prospect, Gonzalez posted an MVP type year. The numbers across the board were stunning but even more could be expected for 2011. His home/road splits were lopsided but at a young 25 and entering only his 4th MLB season, I tend to think that will right itself shortly. With Tulo's dangerous bat behind him and the hitters atmosphere at Coors Field, I see at 37 HRs, 120+ RBIs, an average well over .320 and possibly more than 30 stolen bases. Not only MVP type numbers, but a viable candidate to win the Triple Crown. Some see him as an early 2nd round fantasy selection but I'm slotting him for round 1. There is a concern from a bruised shin acquired in a spring game collision with Ian Stewart but it doesn't appear to have slowed this budding superstar down.
4. SS Troy Tulowitzki - 59 HRs & 197 RBIs in the last two years. Those are the kind of power numbers you associate with the top sluggers in the game. Tulo may be that but with those stats coming from the SS position makes every fantasy player lick their collective chops in anticipation. Add an average close to or above .300, a dozen stolen bags per year & 100 runs scored & you have a sure fire high 1st round pick. I don't expect 2011 will be any different and he could do even better in the power numbers.
5. 1B Todd Helton - Near the end of a bench mark Rockies career, it seems that Helton's average drop to .256 is the last thing in his once powerful game to go. His power stroke last made a significant appearance in 2004 & now it looks like he'll never get within sniffing distance of a .300 average. We're all better for watching him play at his best but I'm not sure he's roster worthy anymore. Helton is hitting spring training pitchers to the tune of his glory days like .355 but I don't expect that will hold up once the bell rings. We'll see what develops but I don't think he'll be able to accumulate stats that will be enough for roster consideration.
6. 2B Jose Lopez - Long time Mariner Lopez takes over 2nd for the time being. He does have more power than the average fantasy 2nd baseman and the drop to 10 HRs last year played mostly in the pitcher friendly environs of Safeco Field may be partly responsible. I believe there are other factors to weigh as he hit 25 the year before in the same situations. His average also tailed off in 2010 & his OBP was also miserable so a decline is certainly possible. At 27, he still brings more to the plate than predecessor Barmes. Even factoring in the Coors Field advantage (which didn't do Melvin Mora any good last year), I see a 2011 with 14 HRs, 66 RBIs & a .270 average at best. He's never been known as a big run scorer & he won't steal many bases at all either. He's still a viable fantasy starter, but more towards the middle of the pack at this position.
7. 3B Ian Stewart - Stewart took the brunt of a spring training collision with CarGo & came away with a right knee sprain causing him to miss a half dozen games. He hasn't gotten back into game action since and his career is checkered with injuries as well. Logging starter status beginning in 2009, the Rocks are still waiting for him to cash in on his promise. There's no denying his power and he did amass 25 HRs & 70 RBIs in 2009 but a low BA & a propensity for high strikeout totals have all but negated those positives. Colorado may soon be running out of patience as he's at it again this spring hitting .200 in only 10 ABs. Susceptibility to getting hurt and those low averages may lead the Rockies in another direction for their 3rd bagger soon. Assuming he's ready to go for the Colorado opener, 20 HRs, 60 RBIs & a customary average of around .250 seems likely for 2011. I've had my fill of waiting for him to turn the corner and there are better 3rd base & corner infield options to pursue on draft day.
Possibilites
2B/OF Eric Young - Good blood lines as Jr. follows Sr. into the majors. With the ability to play multiple positions a plus for a major league roster, it can also label a player as a reserve. He hasn't been able to find his hitting groove in parts of 2 Rockie seasons, batting in the .240s. It should be worth the Rockies time to invest a little more patience in his development as he could be a future MLB base stealing leader & run scoring machine. If Lopez falters or the Fowler experiment fails, he could be next in line. He's hitting .333 this spring in 15 ABs so the possibility of success is there. I'd watch the outfield and 2nd base situation in Colorado as the summer moves on and see what happens.
C Wilin Rosario - With their two best pitching prospects fresh out of recent player drafts (Lefties Tyler Matzek & Christian Friedrich) & too green to sniff anywhere near a Colorado call up, Rosario may be in line for a starter's berth in the near future if Iannetta again doesn't live up to expectations in 2011. He presents all the offensive skills usually lacking at this position. Playing in AA Texas League in 2010, he ranked #2 in slugging percentage but didn't qualify after tearing his ACL in August, ending his season. His bat is so potent that Colorado might entertain the idea of making him the back up sooner rather than later. He's only hit .167 this spring but with only Jose Morales (a good average hitter but no power) standing between him and the job Iannetta currently holds, his star quality bat may soon be needed at Coors Field as the recent wave of young catchers who can hit invades MLB and also washes ashore in Colorado.
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