PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Rotation
1. LHP Paul Maholm - It is a shame that Pittsburgh has not yet been able to develop good starting pitchers to go with their young budding offense. That could change soon. In the mean time, Maholm, the veteran of 6 Pirate campaigns, looks to anchor this staff & at least provide innings while the Bucs sort out their starting problems. It is highly possible McDonald gets the ball for game 1 of the 2011 season but Maholm might be the guy also. There's not much to like here as his ordinary career ERA of 4.48 looks good in light of the 5.10 he posted last season. Add a low strikeout ratio, high WHIP & average against & you have a starter to stay away from on draft day.
2. RHP James McDonald - As this rotation could set up in any possible order, I'm going to make an educated guess that McDonald doesn't go lower than #2. The 26 year old former Dodger appears to have the best pitching "stuff" of the 5 projected starters. Sharing time between the Pirates & LA in 2010, his stats didn't stand out in 15 appearances (12 starts). He rolled out a higher than career 4.02 ERA in 4 wins with a somewhat high WHIP and OK average against. There is hope though as he brings plenty of strikeout capability to the table getting just under a K per inning last year. As the probable opening day starter in place of Maholm, he could see double digit wins in 2011 as the Pirates already have a solid hitting foundation for the future. That's still not enough for me to draft him or any other Bucs starter. He was also pulled from his spring start on 3/18 with pain in his left side so that does bear watching.
3. RHP Ross Ohlendorf - As this rotation could set up in any possible order, Ohlendorf looks to slot either as #3 or #4. His 1-11 record in 2010 is misleading to a point as he did have a respectable 4.07 ERA & .260 average against. A strained muscle in his throwing shoulder forced the Pirates to close down his 2010 season in August. After a promising 2009, that was a real let down. So who shows up this year? I'm of the opinion he may not be fully ready after his 2010 injury and his spring headlined by a 10.24 ERA supports that. I'd see what develops as he does have the talent to get back to his 2009 success story when he won 11 and had a 3.92 ERA.
4. RHP Kevin Correia - Former Padre Correia could likely switch places with Ohlendorf in the rotation and I think that will happen. As with the other projected starters, there's not much to hang your hat on here with a 2010 ERA of 5.40. He did win 10 but also lost the same amount & the other pitching stats were equally unimpressive. Keep in mind that a lot of this was done in the pitcher's paradise of Petco Park. It has been more of the same this spring so stay very far away.
5. RHP Charlie Morton - Probably bringing up the rear of this sad starting staff, Morton hasn't shown any ability to get MLB hitters out and what's worse, his control in 2010 was terrible. Every single pitching stat from last year was sorry (2-12 record, 7.57 ERA, .332 average against & 1.73 WHIP as well as a low strikeout ratio) but he's been a pleasant surprise this spring in 3 starts with a 1.29 ERA, .196 average against, 0.71 WHIP & 8 Ks in 14 IP. Should we buy in? I'd wait to see what happens a bit during the regular season but I'm skeptical at best.
Closer
RHP Joel Hanrahan - Hanrahan was named the Pirates closer for 2011 & I think that was a good decision. 1st of all, the Pirates are going to be able to hang in games late thanks to an offense with the capability to score runs in bunches. Though he only converted 6 saves in 10 chances last year, he had a solid 3.62 ERA and .221 average against. Even more impressive, he almost had a 13K per 9 IP ratio. Though he has a bloated 8.10 ERA this spring, the K rate remains very high and this is the best tell for me. I wouldn't hesitate to select him on draft day as a fairly high #2 closer.
Lineup
1. LF Jose Tabata - The Pirates have yet to decide who leads off (it will either be Tabata or McCutchen). I'm going to guess Tabata as the Pirates probably want McCutchen in a position to use his hitting ability, surprising power and speed to generate more runs early. Tabata had his ups and downs in his rookie campaign last year but showed great promise that I think will blossom even more in 2011. When the dust settled, he accumulated a .299 BA with 35 RBIs and 19 steals to go along with 61 runs scored in 405 ABs. Not bad for a team struggling for offense in 2010. He'll probably still have periods of highs and lows this year but in a full season in the lineup he should be able to hit in the .290 range, steal at least 25 bags and score 80-90 runs. That's certainly worthy of a selection towards the back end of your fantasy draft as a late outfielder.
2. 2B Neil Walker - If Tabata leads off, Walker will follow him at #2 but if McCutchen is #1, look for Walker to be installed in the #3 hole. I don't think he's suited as the 3rd hitter but I think his bat will also be heard this summer. Like Tabata, Walker was also essentially in his rookie campaign in 2010 though he did have 36 Pirate ABs in 2009. He broke out with a .296 BA, 12 HRs & 66 RBIs to go along with 57 runs scored in 426 ABs. What gets my attention is the combination of great batting eye as supported by the batting average & the promise of much better than average power from a weak fantasy position. I think he'll do even better in 2011 in a protected position in the batting order and would certainly select him as a starting 2nd baseman on my team if I waited too long to grab one of the few fantasy stars at 2B.
3. CF Andrew McCutchen - Entering his 3rd season, he picked up where he left off in 2009 with another solid season in 2010. At 24, the best is yet to come and he's starting to develop more power to his 5 tool game. I see a 2011 in which he breaks the .300 BA barrier, hits 25 or so HRs to go along with 85 RBIs & he'll steal 40 bags and score 100 runs. Already Pittsburgh's best player of All-Star caliber, I'd like to see him here in the #3 hole so the Pirates can take advantage of all his offensive abilities in the heart of their order but even if management decides to lead him off, only a slight drop in RBIs will be the result. I'm tempted to consider him as a #1 fantasy outfielder but a very high #2 is probably more accurate.
4. 3B Pedro Alvarez - This budding slugger is just starting to get his bearings in MLB. Getting his Major League chops with the rest of the young Pirate hitters, this former 1st round pick exploded on the scene in his rookie year. In 347 ABs, he unloaded 16 HRs to go with 64 RBIs. Very capable of multi-HR games, his weakness is striking out at a prodigious pace which led to his somewhat low .256 BA. Until he has better plate discipline, the low BA and strikeout count will continue as evidenced by his spring (.240). As I'm not sure he'll master the strike zone in 2011, I'll project 27 HRs, 85 RBIs & a .250 BA for 2011. This would slot him as a very late starter at 3rd or an ideal back up corner infielder. Someone might jump the gun on this expecting a monster year but patience is warranted here until he has a better grasp of the strike zone.
5. 1B Lyle Overbay - Joining his 4th MLB team entering his 11th season, this veteran FA import from Toronto adds some experienced stability to a very young lineup. A career .274 hitter, he won't give you the power numbers of a typical starting 1st baseman. He did smack 20 HRs and drive in 67 a year ago but that was in a well stocked Blue Jay lineup playing half their games in a hitters haven. He's had a very productive spring hitting a torrid .395 and adding a surprising 3 HRs & 8 RBIs. Does this signal a power burst late in his career? Possible but unlikely as I see him hitting around .300 with 18 HRs and a solid 80+ RBIs in 2011. OK for a back up corner infielder, but short of the mark for a fantasy starter.
6. RF Garrett Jones - Another young Pirate hitter who has a bit more time in the majors. He made Pittsburgh sit up and take notice in his 2009 rookie season coming over from the Twins when he hit 21 HRs, knocked in 44 and hit a solid .293 in just 314 ABs. His 1st full season last year was a bit of a let down. After predictions of future stardom, he hit the same amount of HRs (though with 86 RBIs) in 592 2010 ABs and his BA plummeted to .247. A late bloomer closing in on 30 this summer, I think he'll rebound in a more potent lineup. Spring has not been kind to him yet and it seems he always starts off cold and warms up as the weather gets hotter. Not a draft candidate at this point but keep a close watch this year as signs of a turnaround seem likely.
7. SS Ronny Cedeno - Chiefly known for his defense, Cedeno is a marginal offensive player at this point and it is possible another young Pirate might be manning this spot early into 2011. A career .245 hitter with a little bit of power in his bat and the ability to steal for double digit bases in a season, he's not roster worthy at all.
8. C Chris Snyder - Given the starting assignment for 2011 after being acquired from Arizona last year, his .207 average shows how far Ryan Doumit has fallen out of favor in Pittsburgh. The Bucs are desperately trying to trade Doumit & his fat salary before the 2011 season begins but have found no takers so far. Snyder does have HR punch hitting 16 in 2008 & 15 last year combined but his low RBI totals indicate most of them come with no one on base. His career .229 BA speaks loudest to me and I don't want him anywhere near my fantasy roster.
Possibilities
RHP Bryan Morris - Reassigned on 3/12, 24 year old Morris would seem to be the 1st pitcher called up from AAA when the Pirate organization decides they need to infuse talent into their weak rotation. He admitted wearing down after throwing more than 133 innings between A & AA last year. He definitely has strikeout capability fanning 124 although sporting a somewhat inconsistent WHIP & ERA. A mid 90s fastball and two good breaking pitches will be his ticket to the bigs if he can show his stuff in the minors this spring. As the Pirates are desperate for starting talent, let's see what happens as the summer progresses.
SS/2B/CF Pedro Ciriaco - Tearing up spring pitchers to the tune of .343 with 2 steals in 35 ABs, the Bucs may be ready to make a change at SS. The 24 year old Dominican has the hitting chops to produce consistently at the Major League level. It's doubtful his frame is suited for power production but with the possibility of being able to hit .300, score a bunch of runs & steal at least 20 bags in a full season, he might be the starting shortstop for Pirates sometime in 2011.
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