HOUSTON ASTROS
Rotation
1. RHP Brett Myers - After it initially looked like the Astros were going to give the ball to Rodriguez on opening day, Myers was chosen. I wholeheartedly agree with this decision. Myers sat on the free agent waiver wire early last year and when I noticed that he was again rounding into the form he once displayed as a Phillie starter, I snagged him. He was one of the saviors of my 2010 fantasy season and an integral part of the reason I won my league. For the year, he won 14, struck out 180 batters & had a jewel of an ERA (3.14). Detractors say it was a one season fluke & not to rely on that again in 2011 since the last time he had a solid season before 2010 was 2006. Sure he's 30 and getting off to his usual poor spring but I'm a believer. I have him positioned as a solid #3 or #4 fantasy starter and he might win even more games this year with a heavier hitting Houston lineup behind him.
2. LHP Wandy Rodriguez - Flashing polar opposite periods of being unhittable with those of getting tattooed regularly, you never know what you're going to get from game to game with Rodriguez. His career has severe home and road splits so you need to use caution when throwing him out there in away games. He's a very good strikeout pitcher but also injury prone. Part of the reason Houston decided to give Myers the opening nod maybe that Rodriguez is suffering with shoulder tendinitis this spring. In 3 starts so far he's been knocked around to the tune of a 9.35 spring ERA. His past history shows 3 straight years of solid ERAs no higher than the 3.60 and consistent K totals averaging about 180 per season. He could win 15 this year if he's ready to go so he qualifies as a risk/reward type of starter. I'll leave him for someone else but based on recent results, he slots as a pretty good #4 or #5 starter.
3. LHP J.A. Happ - Another Ex-Phillie who also has severe up & down periods over the course of a season like Rodriguez. He seems to do his best work earlier in the campaign and digress as the season wears on. I don't know if this is attributable to training or not though. Happ was only able to make 16 trips to the mound between the Phils & Astros in 2010 but came away with his usually solid ERA (3.40). He is also an injury risk candidate proving fragile over the years. When right, he'll give a fair K ratio and good average against but has been known to walk his share driving his WHIP upwards. I'm of the opinion that he'll give you a good 1st half of the season and fade after the All-Star break. Keep this in mind if you draft him. He merits roster consideration for the back end of a fantasy rotation.
4. RHP Bud Norris - Norris has been called a pitcher with "electric stuff" by knowledgeable baseball insiders but hasn't put it together in 37 starts over most of 2 seasons with the 'Stros. So far, he carries a career ERA close to 5.00 due to his shaky control. This has translated into a very high MLB WHIP. He definitely has talent to strike hitters out at better than a K per inning ratio so that alone should get your attention. He hasn't been able to harness his wildness and that has carried over into his spring appearances. Until he does, it is too big a gamble warming an opening day roster seat for him but watch closely and if the light comes on this year be ready to pounce.
5. RHP Nelson Figueroa - Right now veteran swingman Figueroa holds a tenuous grip on the #5 spot. This is mostly due to a decent spring performance which has him with 2 wins and a 3.86 ERA. As good as that looks on paper, his career numbers don't bear that out with a 4.29 ERA and a very high WHIP. He's a decent strikeout pitcher but if he begins the season in the rotation, he won't be there long as middle relief is his calling and the Astros have two young starters ready to step in. I'm not interested.
Closer
RHP Brandon Lyon -Well traveled vet Lyon stepped up in 2010 and deservedly earned the Astros closer role. He's the man to begin this year and might have found a home in Houston. I've always found Lyon to be much too erratic for a consistent closer's role but he just might have turned the corner. He only blew 2 of 22 save chances after being installed as the closer last year. His ERA has fluctuated wildly but has now logged 2 years in a row with very good ones which belie his career 4.05 mark. He posts a decent strikeout ratio, good average against and an OK WHIP which means he doesn't have a high walk rate. I'm willing to say he might have finally gotten it together but still have that nagging thought in the back of my mind that it could all come apart quickly so I rank him as a middle of the pack 2nd fantasy closer.
Lineup
1. CF Michael Bourn - If defense was the bench mark for fantasy success, he'd be a #1 pick. There are very few if any centerfielders in the game with better skills and instincts. On the offensive side, he's honing his talent as a lead off guy but isn't quite there yet. This is due to his .263 career BA which means he hasn't yet learned to use his speed to get more hits. He does have a fairly good OBP, should steal 60 bags this year & could easily score 100+ runs. I'll take the lower average and virtually no power for those numbers so much so that I'd be willing to spend a #3 or #4 outfield draft pick on him.
2. SS Clint Barmes - Replacing home grown Tommy Manzella, who failed miserably in 2010 after being given the starting shot, is Ex-Rockie Barmes. Houston must have felt that they had to get better offensive numbers from this position in 2011. Barmes is a career .254 hitter with a lot more pop in his bat than the average SS. Whether that can partly or wholly be attributed to the friendly confines of Coors Field or not we'll see this year. I believe that might at least be part of the reason but Houston is a nice place to hit as well so I'm guessing he'll put up the same kind of average in the .250-.260 range with about a dozen HRs, 55 RBIs, 50+ runs scored and double digit steals. That won't cut it for me on draft day so unless you're searching for a SS late or as a back up, don't go there.
3. RF Hunter Pence - Pence has also a somewhat inconsistent career but seems to have developed into a solid everyday starter for the Astros. Now nearing 28, he could be on the verge of a very good season batting ahead of a rejuvenated Carlos Lee. I think a newly aggressive approach at the plate will yield a .300+ BA, 30+ HRs, close to 100 RBIs & 20 steals in 2011. That more than enough to qualify him as a #2 fantasy outfielder who could produce #1 outfielder stats.
4. LF Carlos Lee - Most lamented his 2010 season as a real disappointment. While I agree with that it is noteworthy to consider that he still hit 24 HRs and drove in 89. This should tell you something about the career "El Caballo" has had. Nearing 35, we wonder how many productive seasons he has left. I believe two reasons are mostly to blame for his 2010 decline: not being in his usual good shape and a horrendously unlucky .238 BABIP. I think he can rebound nicely in 2011 as he looks to be in much better shape and taking to his play with a renewed enthusiasm this spring. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that he'll deliver 35 HRs, 100+ RBIs & close to his career .287 BA this year. That makes him no worse than a high #2 fantasy outfielder.
5. 3B Chris Johnson - Another part of the reason I like Lee to rebound is this newly found bat behind him in the Astros lineup. I picked Johnson off the free agent heap last year after he was given a chance to play in June and for the most part he delivered with a .308 BA, 11 HRs & 52 RBIs in 341 2010 ABs. Many think he'll have a sophomore slump in 2011 but I'm not one of them and expect even better numbers. Following Lee is an advantage as he spent most of 2010 much lower in the order and not knowing how long the Astros would give him to find his groove. With the job in hand at least as the season begins & a better spot in the middle of the Houston order, I'm looking for 22 HRs, 80+ RBIs & a BA still over .300. His very good spring supports my optimism and show of hands, who would take those stats from their starting 3rd baseman? Almost eveyone.
6. 2B Bill Hall - Already making unwanted noise after getting buzzed by an inside fastball from Cole Hamels in a recent spring game, this temperamental career journeyman won't get my attention on draft day. Throwing inside to get a hitter off the plate? No way! He'd better get used to it because now that the rest of the NL pitchers know this, it's going to happen to him a lot. Qualifying at 2B enhances his marginal talent somewhat but even given his shockingly good 2010 season in hitter friendly Fenway, his career numbers including a .250 BA are more of a tell. He hardly ever drives in a bunch of runs or scores them and always puts up big strikeout numbers. I see a .240 average, perhaps 15 HRs & 50 RBIs in store for his 2011 owners. Not bad for a starting 2nd baseman if you can live with the low average. Just make sure you sit him against most righties because he can't hit them.
7. 1B Brett Wallace - Though he may start out in the #7 hole, I suspect he'll move up to #6 at least or perhaps even #5 if he he swings the bat well in 2011. For my money, he projects well into the #6 hole due to his propensity for swinging and missing. The 24 year old is with his 3rd organization and this slugger may also have found a home in this young revamped Houston lineup. He didn't stand out in 144 2010 at bats with the Astros hitting only .222 and striking out 50 times. He's done much better this spring without the specter of losing a starting job yet over his head. It's doubtful he'll be able to keep the spring pace of a .380 BA with 14 RBIs in 50 ABs going over the course of a full season but an average in the .260-.270 range with 20-25 HRs & 70+ RBIs is well within reach. A stretch as a starting fantasy 1st baseman, but more than solid numbers as a back up corner infielder. I'm cautiously optimistic.
8. C Humberto Quintero - With star pupil and projected starter Jason Castro probably down for the 2011 count with a knee injury, Quintero gets the initial nod to start. A .232 career BA with little to no power says it all. He is hitting an unconscious .440 this spring but anyone who expects to see even a shadow of that when the bell rings is mistaken. Recently re-signed prospect J.R. Towles has been a terror this spring hitting .344 with 2 HRs & 6 RBIs so he might be given another chance to make the position his own if Quintero doesn't cut it.
Possibilities
RHP Jordan Lyles - Nelson Figueroa aside, this is the guy I'd like to see in the #5 rotation spot this season. Only 20 years old but much more pitching savvy than others his age, this 2008 supplemental 1st round pick's installation into the rotation could only be hampered by Houston's need to retain his rights by not bringing him to the big league roster until June. With little else in the back of their rotation & question marks in the middle, it might be worth their while to rush things a bit with Lyles. Never having appeared in a big league game, he has 4 MLB ready pitches in his arsenal with the curve and change up being the headliners. Not a top of the line strikeout pitcher, he has made his case this spring with a 1.98 ERA, 9 Ks, a .212 average against & a microscopic 0.95 WHIP in 13-2/3 IPr. If he doesn't break camp with the team or does in the pen, expect to see him as part of the rotation sometime this summer.
RHP Aneury Rodriguez - A bit more battle tested at 23 & with a full AAA season behind him, this Tampa Bay rule 5 pick might be given a chance to crack the rotation ahead of Lyles. Like Lyles, he's also not a K machine & has a 3.60 ERA and 1.80 WHIP this spring. His .316 average against might set off a warning alarm but I'm sure the Astros will give either him or Lyles a chance to win the 5th spot when the team heads to Minute Maid Park for the 2011 season. Watch this development.
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