MLB Fantasy Jump Start - Washington Nationals

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Rotation

1. RHP Livan Hernandez - My least favorite term for a starter (innings eater) couldn't find a more appropriate place to land than here. Never throwing less than 180 innings since 1997 means he'll always show up to pitch & is a testament to his durability. What does that do for your fantasy team? Well, hanging in games means he'll always have a chance to win but Hernandez hasn't won more than 13 since 2005. He won't give you many strikeouts, post a high WHIP and very pedestrian ERA in the mid 4.00s. This type of starter isn't for me and at 36 the durability should also start to decline soon. I'm keeping far away.

2. LHP John Lannan - Lannan had his moments in 2010 and could slot anywhere from 2nd to 5th in this rotation. Those highs were few & far between though. Overall, he was very ordinary in some categories (8 wins, 4.65 ERA, low K/IP ratio) & terrible in others (.302 BA against & 1.56 WHIP). Career history and this spring indicates that could even get worse. Until Strasburg arrives back on the scene (and we all hope he'll come back as strong & solid as before), this starting staff looks almost as pathetic as the one currently residing in KC. Be afraid, be very afraid.

3. RHP Jordan Zimmermann - OK, for me, this is a different story. Sporadically dominant at times in 2010, I like the raw ability and future of Zimmerman more than anyone on this entire staff. A high WHIP & ERA last year masked the good factors of a very solid strikeout ratio & a comparatively low BA against (.256). Closing in on 25, he's still just getting his feet wet in MLB with only 23 total starts in 2 big league years. I'm inclined to give him a mulligan for 1 more year based on the tools I see. Like last spring, he's done fairly well in 2011 so drafting him is a definite gamble. For me, grabbing him as one of my last starters might pay big dividends this year & I'm probably going to take a chance on him late in my draft.  

4. RHP Jason Marquis - Marquis has been around the block more than a few times with a decade long MLB career spent with 5 teams. He's never been more than an average pitcher except for his 2004 St. Louis Cardinal campaign. We can expect more of the same this year with an ERA in the mid 4.00s, maybe 10 wins and a grossly high WHIP and average against. He's not a K machine either so I see no reason to look his way on draft day.

5. LHP Tom Gorzelanny - The former Pirate joins his 3rd MLB team in Washington this year & his numbers look strikingly familiar with the rest of this starting staff. I thought he had some talent when I 1st saw him in Pittsburgh and has shown a solid K ratio the last 2 years. His control issues may be what's keeping him from turning the corner so until some tangible results start to show, it's wait and see for me.

Closer

RHP Drew Storen - G ioing into this spring Storen looked like the obvious guy to sew up the closer's role & before last year, I was also on board with his ability. Though he wasn't the only one called upon to save games in 2010, his brief resume looked good with 5 saves in 7 chances, a solid K ratio & a low average against. Sadly, that has not carried over into this spring. In a little more than 6 innings, he been lit up to the tune of a 12.79 ERA. The rest of the spring numbers are equally as awful except he does show 8 strikeouts in 6-1/3 innings. That alone should leave room for hope. I'm baffled by this spring as well and the Nats hierarchy must also be worried to the point he may not even make the team. With most of the potential closers moving on to other teams, there's little else to choose from.

RHP Tyler Clippard - Though Todd Coffey has closed elsewhere before, Clippard may have the inside track thanks to sometimes dominating performances in 2010. He's also gotten torn apart this spring but his phenomenal K rate last year can't be ignored. If he can harness his wildness. He just might have success in this role for the Nats but he'll have to show me 1st. Doug Slaten could also be given a shot and since I believe Washington will try several in the beginning of the year, none of them should be drafted.

Lineup

1. CF Nyjer Morgan - His on field outburst after getting thrown behind in 2010 that spilled over with an uncalled for gesture to the fans may have been the beginning of the end for him. Hitting only .253 & scoring only 60 runs last year is not what the Nationals expected after getting him from the Pirates. At 30 & hitting only .205 this spring (though with 8 runs scored and 5 SB), he may need to show something right away. I tend to think the Nats will give him a little more rope to begin 2011 so we'll see what develops. He could provide some run and stolen base production for a fantasy team but not mine.

2. SS Ian Desmond - I had Desmond on my opening day fantasy roster as a backup SS last year (and with all the mistakes I'm telling you about, it is amazing I won my league) but had to cut him fairly early as he didn't give me what I needed. There is no doubt he still has the time to blossom into a very solid MLB starter as long as he can master the defensive skills of the position. His physical attributes and abilities suggest he can be a player with a rare speed and power combination at a position starving for viable fantasy candidates. He has hit well this spring while scoring 9 runs & stealing a couple bags but the power is absent. If I need a backup SS and someone hasn't already snagged him, I'd be willing to put my head in the noose again late in the draft.

3. RF Jayson Werth - Ex-Oriole farmhand Werth strung 3 solid years together (except for the .268 BA in '09) for the Phillies to get a nice free agent payday in the nation's capital. He'll probably duplicate fairly solid power numbers and a surprising amount of stolen bases for the Nats in 2011 but not at the rate he did in Philly. He goes to a lineup where he's less protected and a ballpark that isn't a hitters dream, not to mention removal of the pay day incentive. If you can live with an average in the .260-.270 range, HRs in the mid-twenties to go along with about 85 RBIs and stolen bases in the mid-teens for one of your outfield starters, he's your man. He's probably go as a #2 fantasy outfielder and while there may be better to fill that slot there is also a lot worse.
 

4. 3B Ryan Zimmerman - The meat of the Nats offense looks like he's just hitting his stride at 26. Two All-Star type years in a row make him one of the surest things not only at 3B but as a solid hitter regardless of position. Having Werth ahead of him also enhances his value to produce even better numbers across the board in 2011 and he should be in the upper tier of fantasy 3rd basemen. There is a groin injury concern this spring & Zimmerman is no stranger to missing time on the field with the odd ailment here and there. I don't think that's a cause for concern and you can rest easy all season knowing your 3rd base slot is being ably filled.

5. 1B Adam LaRoche - Hauling over to his 4th team entering his 7th big league season, LaRoche may find the pickings slimmer than the friendly hitters atmosphere in Arizona. A steadily declining BA and a sharp increase in strikeouts also points to a downturn in 2011. I think he'll reach 20 HRs but sharply drop from his 2010 total of 100 RBIs this season as the average will continue to slip to around .250 & the strikeouts pile up again. Someone could use him on their fantasy roster as a back up corner outfielder but it won't be me.

6. LF Michael Morse - The late season surprise of 2010 was awarded a starting spot (and deservedly so) to begin the 2011 campaign. Some seem to think he'll platoon to start the year but his solid 2nd half last year has dramatically continued to spill over into the spring so I don't agree. He's still ripping it up and as long as that continues, he'll get his at bats. A utility role player in Seattle for 4 seasons who sometimes manned middle infield positions, I think that with regular play he could amass 25 HRs, 80+ RBIs and hit in the .280-.290 range. Right now I'd go as high as a #3 OF slot for a fantasy roster. A bit of a risk without a true track record but his career .291 average means this guy has hitting shoes on his feet.

7. C Ivan Rodriguez - Nearing the end of a Hall Of Fame career, Rodriguez has been reduced to little more than a singles hitter and young catcher's mentor. I respect him greatly and in the past, he's given me very good numbers from a weak offensive position. Now he shouldn't be anywhere near an opening day roster.

8. 2B Danny Espinosa - This is another young Nationals hitter who I have high hopes for. He'll be given a good chance to make 2nd base his home & a low BA in 2010 could be forgiven for a young hitter getting to 24 soon. He flashed the promise of power last year and if his plate discipline improves so that the strikeouts aren't so regular, that batting average could rise to a respectable number as well. He's hitting .317 this spring with a pair of HRs and 12 RBIs so the promise stays alive for now. I'm not sure you want to gamble a draft day pick on him but he might find his way to many a fantasy baseball roster before long.

Possibilities

C Wilson Ramos - 2011 brings this former Twin to the Caddy spot for Rodriguez. That stay may be short as Rodriguez's usefulness seems to be quickly disappearing and Ramos has a good hitting pedigree in the minors. He hit .278 split among both teams in 2010 in 79 ABs & also has power to go along with that. Not draftable right now but watch closely to see when this transition takes place in Washington as he could provide some mid-season punch to a fantasy lineup.
 

OF Rick Ankiel - The former wild pitcher turned hitter seems to have found a fan in Jim Riggleman and might be given the chance to win an outfield start for the Nats. I've seen enough throughout his career to remain very suspicious. Aside from injuries following him around like a lost dog, his career .248 BA tells me to beware. He's still a good defender with decent pop but it's doubtful he'll ever again see the numbers he posted in his only solid season (2008, with the Cards). I'm not buying even if he wins the starting job and neither should you.


RHP Yunesky Maya - Here's someone who has impressed me for a future with the Nationals starting staff. He was plain awful in his MLB debut with the Nats in 2010 and the Cuban is running out of time at 29 but when I've seen him pitch this spring, I like what I see. He has the heater to get MLB hitters swinging and missing but has an assortment of pitches that he throws in any count to keep hitters off balance. He needs to do more to secure a chance for some starting assignments and will probably begin in long relief for the Nationals this year. This situation bears close watch as the Nationals staff needs immediate help.

Roger Bernadina - I don't understand management's reluctance to give Bernadina a shot in the Nats outfield. He showed a glimmer of the ability to steal bases and drive in a lot runs as well as scoring them in 2010 though his wild swinging ways led to a low average. I think with a little more attention to plate discipline and hitting according to the count, he can be a solid MLB starter. I personally like him to take Morgan's spot in center & lead off but have no way of knowing what the plans for him in Washington for 2011 will be. I'm going to guess he'll start as a part timer until the Nats get fed up with the undelivered promise of Nyjer Morgan. So until Strasburg's hitting counterpart phenom (Bryce Harper) is ready for the bigs, this could be the only breakout young hitter the Nats have for their outfield. We'll see.