CLEVELAND INDIANS
Rotation
1. RHP Fausto Carmona - That Cleveland considers Carmona, a pitcher with a career 4.43 ERA and 1.44 WHIP the ace of their staff and 1st starter out of the 2011 chute is troubling. Not having developed pitchers from their system to accompany the core of promising young hitters is lamentable. Carmona might again notch wins in the double digits this year but the rest of the numbers scare me away. He's been bounced around this spring as well to the tune of a 7.88 ERA and a .333 average against. This one's not for me.
2. RHP Justin Masterson - The ex Red sox prospect showed some promise last year and was certainly better than the 6-13 record he sported. He does have the pitches to master MLB hitters and amass some decent yearly strikeout totals but hasn't put it together yet. What I saw in 2010 is the same malady a lot of young starters have in common: a loss of concentration if an inning starts to unravel. I'll be watching but he's not worth a roster spot right now.
3. RHP Carlos Carrasco - Still plenty of time to get it together as he approaches 24, Carrasco has the fastball to become a MLB strikeout pitcher and is starting to harness his off speed stuff. He may have the most ability of this year's slated starters & has shown promise this spring. I'd watch his early season starts before I get on board, though.
4. RHP Mitch Talbot - 2010 numbers very similar to what Carmona showed may be more than coincidence. Not appearing to be a pitcher with high K potential, he's been battered this spring. I don't think he'll be fantasy roster worthy.
5. RHP Josh Tomlin - Pitched decently in 12 2010 starting assignments & he's also been solid in his spring appearances. This control pitcher might be a surprise in 2011. I'll take the wait and see route here as for now I don't value any of the Cleveland starters enough to draft them.
Closer
RHP Chris Perez - Now having no competition for the closer's role (something that isn't so clear cut for a lot of teams), that alone makes him draftable. He converted 23 out of 27 save chances last year with great numbers in ERA, Ks, WHIP & average against as well. The downside is that Cleveland again in 2011 will struggle for wins so his opportunities may remain the same. A #2 closer for your fantasy team.
Lineup
1. CF Grady Sizemore - Coming off of knee surgery, he has yet to play in a spring contest as of this writing. That is a concern for a player whose last full productive season was 2008. Once a do-it-all offensive all-star, we can at least infer that his base stealing prowess will be at least diminished if not gone completely. I'm also not sure if his power will return & the recent injuries just make me want to stay away. If everything falls into place and he's truly recovered, you might find a gem in 2011. I can't take the chance.
2. SS Asdrubal Cabrera - He's moving to SS this year to make way for namesake Orlando. After a promising 2009, everything went south last year. He is hitting well this spring and stealing bases so an uptick in 2011 is certainly possible. If you missed on the better shortstops, this one might be worth a late shot as your starter.
3. RF Shin-Soo Choo - An all star caliber hitter who'll also give you plenty of stolen bases & solid power numbers, he should be a fairly high pick on draft day. The problem is soreness in his throwing elbow that purportedly is unrelated to his "Tommy John" surgery that has kept him out of Cactus League games recently. I'd see how the spring develops for him but be ready to grab him high if everything checks out.
4. C Carlos Santana - He made a big splash last year after getting the starting nod. An agonizing knee injury on a play at the plate closed that out and we hope the young budding star is recovered. He hasn't hit this spring yet but the promise of a catcher who can hit .300 with blossoming power is hard to resist. I'd again look closely at the spring training developments before pulling the trigger on draft day but if he's ready, a middle #1 starter is not too high.
5. DH Travis Hafner - It has been a while since he put up the kind of awe inspiring numbers he blasted out from 2004-2007 so it's hard to figure out what this upcoming season might yield. He has carried a consistently high BA throughout so perhaps the power is ready to return. I'd have to see some evidence of this before investing a roster spot.
6. 1B Matt LaPorta - He hasn't yet reached his prospect potential in parts of two seasons with the Indians but there was a glimmer of the latent power in his 2010 numbers. Beginning the year with a long leash to produce as the starting 1st baseman might finally kick him into gear. He hasn't come around yet this spring in the hitter friendly atmosphere of the Cactus League so I'd only take a flyer on him as a last roster spot on a hunch but probably not.
7. 3B Jayson Nix - Nix will probably get 1st crack at this spot based on his power output in 2010 and the Indians feel Jason Donald would get the next shot. I'm not a big fan of either but if spring numbers are a factor Donald's current .400 average (with no power) is preferable to Nix's .105 with decent power. I'm not considering either for my opening roster and feel there is a better option (see below).
8. 2B Orlando Cabrera - The well traveled Free Agent landed in Cleveland for 2011 and moved Asdrubal to SS. He still carries a lifetime .274 average with decent but declining pop at 36. For my money, I'd only draft him if I'm scrambling for a starting second baseman late in the draft as there are plenty of better options out there.
9. LF Michael Brantley - Given the starting job after receiving less than a confidence boost from the team last spring. Speed, scoring runs and good "D" are the main parts of his game. After hitting over .300 in 112 AB in 2009, he moved back quite a bit to .246 last year. He's doing much worse this spring so I'm staying far away.
Possibilities
3B Lonnie Chisenhall - Golden boy power prospect Jared Goedert aside (and already reassigned), I'm confused by Cleveland's reluctance to give Chisenhall at shot on opening day. My guess is that since they'll eventually lose their best young stars, they want to keep this one away from other predators as long as possible and probably plan to bring him up in June at best. I've seen him play and he looks like one of the best natural hitters I've seen in a long time. He looks like a superstar in the making. Tearing up opposing pitchers this spring with power to spare as well, I will jump on this as soon as the Indians shift gears and decide to give him a starting opportunity. I'd watch his progress closely as he's MLB ready right now.
2B Jason Kipnis - A .300 hitting middle infielder with outfielder power he'll probably be manning the infield along with Chisenhall (who's also played SS) sooner rather than later. His unremarkable spring will further convince the Tribe that he's not ready yet. With Goedert also on the fast track to the bigs, Cleveland might soon have an arsenal of weapons to unleash on MLB pitchers.
RHP Alex White - A strikeout pitcher with a fastball/slider/splitter in his quiver, the 2009 1st rounder might easily be called up this summer if things go well in AAA. Getting torched this spring reinforces Cleveland's decision to send him down but he won't be there long as Cleveland needs help in the starting rotation as soon as possible.
LHP Drew Pomeranz - An even more imposing figure than White at 6'-5", he also has the stuff to amass large K numbers once ready for the bigs. He has also been impressive this spring in brief appearances (3 IP, no runs, 5K). Together with White, and assuming Cleveland can hold onto their home grown talent long enough, the Indians have a solid core of young players to challenge in the AL Central at some point.
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