BOSTON RED SOX
Rotation
1. LHP Jon Lester - Three solid years culminated in a true ace pitcher 2010 season. I truly believe last season is an indicator that Lester is ready to take his place among the special elite class of starters. 20+ wins and 200+ strikeouts should be expected from this point forward. The only cause for concern is that he has been bothered by injuries throughout his major league career. No matter, you won't find a more consistent starter and with the Boston offense behind him, wins should come in bunches.
2. RHP Clay Buchholz - The 2010 results were certainly an eye opener. After parts of 3 mostly frustrating seasons, Buchholz put in all together. 4 solid pitches and a 90s heater should translate into a better K/IP ratio but that might follow soon. I'm not sure he'll get 17 wins in 2011 but a solid #2 or #3 starter.
3. RHP Josh Beckett - Another one of those former Marlins starters who has had mixed results after departure. There's no doubting his tools to get hitters out but a series of injuries has kept him from the elite crowd at the top. Mound focus at times also seems to wander after there's a hiccup in the inning. You want to believe, and you should with at least 16 wins in 4 of the last 6 years. I don't think anyone knows what kind of performance you'll get from year to year, but if healthy solid wins and Ks should be your reward. you'll also probably saddled with a plus 4.00 ERA and a fluctuating WHIP that could be good or bad. I believe he's a middle of the pack 3rd fantasy starter.
4. RHP John Lackey - Big things were expected after his move to Boston. It didn't happen as he posted a higher ERA, a sorry WHIP & a .277 average against. He's a guy that will give you innings and probably better numbers all around than 2010 this year. A solid #3 or #4 fantasy starter.
5. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka - Two very disappointing seasons after a Cy Young type of year in 2007 is a cause for concern. Also a worry is 3 straight sub par strikeout totals after 201 in 2006. I don't know what to anticipate this year but I'd err on the side of caution and wait for some positive results before drafting him.
Closer
RHP Jonathan Papelbon - The landscape sure has changed for the Red Sox here over a year's span. He sure didn't have a bad year in 2010 but imploded in too many game situations. It also appears he's lost some of the velocity off his fast ball and isn't scaring hitters as much as in the past. The Boston organization is also playing this close to the vest with 2 fall back candidates. I'm not sure I'd want him as my #1 closer for 2011 until I see some consistent results. That won't happen as someone will draft him.
RHP Daniel Bard - This young flame thrower looks ready to take the baton if Papelbon falters. He flourished in a set up role in 2010 and looked solid when called upon to close as well. All the numbers you look for in a closer are there. Keep an eye on this as the season develops.
RHP Bobby Jenks - This appears to be the 2nd option after Papelbon. In addition to being the late inning hold guy, Boston also wanted more insurance in case a change at closer needed to be made. His ERA escalated a bit in 2010 and he can be erratic as his 1.37 WHIP shows. I don't think this is a cause for concern as he only blew 4 saves out of 31 opportunities and his K to innings pitched ratio was very good. He might get some save chances this year but don't look to draft him as a closer without more evidence.
Lineup
1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury - Back after only 78 ABs in 2010 due to a rib injury, we'll have to see who shows up when the bell rings. His 2011 spring results don't indicate much other than 0 steals in 4 times on the bases. SB and scoring runs (along with solid D) are the main weapons of his game and anyone drafting him needs to be sure he'll produce in these categories. If he's good to go, you'll appreciate those numbers and a high BA. I'd temper my expectations until seeing results but this could be tough as players on certain teams are always drafted higher than they should go. I'd go no higher than a 4th outfielder for a fantasy team.
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia - A broken foot derailed what could been a season of career highs in many of his offensive numbers. As he's not a super base stealer anyway, and if his foot stands up, You'd have to see him with the top second basemen in the game. Anyone should always be leery of a player coming off an injury but I see him producing star quality numbers in his forte stats (BA, R & RBI). Given the rest of the numbers he would normally produce in the others, he should be considered a lock for a starting fantasy 2B.
3. LF Carl Crawford - Showing no signs of slowing down and actually increasing most of his production numbers in 2010, this could be a monster year for Crawford sandwiched between Pedroia & Gonzalez. A high 1st round pick is warranted here.
4. 1B Adrian Gonzalez - Yes, off season shoulder surgery does give one pause and as of this writing, he has no spring at bats. If fully recovered & placed in the middle of this monster lineup, he could chew up and spit out those already huge numbers he amassed in several of his SD years. The thought of a healthy Gonzalez swinging away in Fenway with runners usually on base could get scary. Going in with more information on his status with some positive spring at bats, I'd wait no longer than round 2 to grab him.
5. 3B Kevin Youkilis - With less of a pressure to always produce thanks to the influx big time hitters, this could also benefit his stats in 2011. Still in a good position in the Red Sox lineup, his numbers should slightly increase in all or most of the offensive categories. He'll also have to think about the switch back to 3rd base but I don't see this as a problem. In an undermanned MLB position, I'd rank him at the middle of a starting #1 fantasy third bagger.
6. DH David Ortiz - His eligibility at DH only limits how soon he'll go. He carried on with a solid 2010 though most were already to write him off in 2009. I somewhat agree that time is starting to catch up with him and he seems to take longer every year to get going. Still, a later round pick (if someone else doesn't draft him 1st) might be a big reward.
7. RF J.D. Drew - Starting out the 2011 season at 35 is another warning flag for a player that has been far too injury prone throughout his career. He has a history of sitting down through nagging ailments and if he's not on the field, he can't improve your team's offensive numbers. I wouldn't clear a spot for him on my opening day roster but if you do, be aware of what you'll probably get: decent part time player numbers.
8. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia - I really thought this guy would turn out to be a solid MLB hitter as a Brave and then as a Ranger. Neither happened and I don't think a change of scenery will improve his hitting. Count me out here.
9. SS Marco Scutaro - Decent production, pretty good numbers in runs scored and a fairly good batting average. I guess that's all you can expect from a #9 hitter. He's at the meaty part of the curve if you're drafting a 2nd SS. I won't.
Possibilites
2B/SS Jed Lowrie - Filled in admirably in the infield after coming back from an injury last season. This is the 2nd ailment in a row and that's what probably is keeping Lowrie from getting to a starting job or putting up consistent numbers. For what it's worth, I like his ability much more in all offensive categories than incumbent SS Scutaro but now the Red Sox want to give him reps at 1B. Doesn't look good for him there. Stay tuned and if Scutaro falters, he may finally get that chance.
LHP Felix Doubront - Certainly didn't light it up in his "cup of coffee" last year (4.32 ERA & 1.48 WHIP in 12 appearances) but he's had a good 2011 spring so far. Not a good sign that he had left elbow problems recently but he's already been cleared to resume throwing. He won't get a chance to crack the starting rotation unless one of the current slated starters gets hurt. That being said, keep a watch on him because I think he has the tools and savvy to succeed against MLB hitters. His good K/IP ratio last year is a good indicator that he has MLB stuff.
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