FLORIDA MARLINS
Rotation
1. RHP Josh Johnson - Strictly based on ability, talent & major league presence alone Johnson qualifies as a #1 starter or at worst a #2. Though his career WHIP is a little high, he's mastered that the last 2 seasons. He's also an excellent strikeout pitcher who has kept his ERA low as well. His problem is staying healthy. When able to take the mound, and he does have 4 spring starts, you'll find very few MLB starters who can deliver more for you. His fastball this spring has topped out at 93 MPH & usually moves in the high 90s but that should come as the spring winds down. I'd monitor this and see what happens when camp breaks. He's a steal as a #2 starter but beware, he could easily become injured at any time.
1. RHP Josh Johnson - Strictly based on ability, talent & major league presence alone Johnson qualifies as a #1 starter or at worst a #2. Though his career WHIP is a little high, he's mastered that the last 2 seasons. He's also an excellent strikeout pitcher who has kept his ERA low as well. His problem is staying healthy. When able to take the mound, and he does have 4 spring starts, you'll find very few MLB starters who can deliver more for you. His fastball this spring has topped out at 93 MPH & usually moves in the high 90s but that should come as the spring winds down. I'd monitor this and see what happens when camp breaks. He's a steal as a #2 starter but beware, he could easily become injured at any time.
2. RHP Ricky Nolasco - It seems a lot of the Marlin starters have injury maladies and Nolasco's career isn't any different. While I don't think he has the same physical abilities or pitches as Johnson, he can be very dominating when he's right. Suffering from a jammed right thumb this spring, he's made only 1 spring start to date and got cuffed around in that effort. His career ERA & WHIP are nothing to write home about but he has posted 42 wins over the last 3 campaigns & will get you plenty of Ks. The thumb is cause for concern as it appears to have hampered his effectiveness so far. Knowing how erratic he can be & cautioning a watch on his health, a #4 starter is the best I can rank him.
3. RHP Javier Vazquez - It is entirely possible that Vazquez & Nolasco may switch rotation spots as the season begins. The well traveled vet still flashed a dominating heater up to 2009 but last year was a concern as his ERA & WHIP shot up & his strikeout ratio went down. Reportedly, his fastball is moving at about 91 MPH this spring so at 34 the age factor may be creeping in. He still has the smarts and pitches to get MLB hitters out & he's had a good spring so far so I'm not writing him off yet. Depending on how your particular draft goes, he could be as high as a #3 starter.
4. RHP Anibal Sanchez - Sanchez, as most Marlin starters this spring has an injury. A bruised right shin has caused him to miss his last spring start and he also carries around a suitcase of past injuries. When right, he'd be a fine #5 starter for a fantasy team as his ERA and strikeout ratio has always been good. The problem is he's never topped last year's 13 wins (in 32 starts no less) & I think the problem is he throws too many pitches during a game which is verified by his high career WHIP. Again, I'd see how this nagging spring injury shakes out when the 2011 season begins.
5. RHP Chris Volstad/RHP Alex Sanabia - Volstad has been given more than an opportunity to be a Florida rotation mainstay & doesn't have much to show for it statistically in 3 past seasons. He's not a strikeout pitcher though he is an imposing mound figure and his ERA & WHIP also don't warrant fantasy roster status. This spring has been no different so I'm staying away. Sanabia is also being considered for this spot based on a decent call up effort in 2010. He won 5 games in 12 starts then and had a nice ERA. He won't get you many Ks and he could easily implode (he's carrying an almost 17.00 ERA in the spring) so I'm saying no thanks.
Closer
RHP Leo Nunez - No doubt about who owns this role in Florida. The ex-Royal has been a model of consistency since taking over as closer full time in 2009. He'll give you everything you want in a closer from a low ERA, plenty of Ks & saves in the 30-40 range. His only drawback is he's blown an unusal number of saves (15) the last two years so you might have to deal with the bad as well as the good. This is somewhat mystifying as his stuff is solid. Florida has made grumblings that if this inconsistency continues, they may replace him with Clay Hensley. That is a possibility made even more likely as Nunez might be dealt (Texas comes to mind if they insist on the stupidity of moving Feliz to a starter's role) if the Marlins fall out of contention (could easily happen). You are taking a chance with him but the rewards could be big. At this point, I see him as a middle of the pack #2 closer.
RHP Clay Hensley - I always liked his stuff & it looks like he might finally establish a true MLB role soon. He shone across the board as the #2 closer option in Florida last year, including a sterling strikeout ratio. The only concern is he also blew 3 saves in 10 chances. Though I think Nunez will be given every chance to get it right in 2011. There is certainly a strong possibility Hensley might be the closer sometime this summer. Watch this development.
RHP Leo Nunez - No doubt about who owns this role in Florida. The ex-Royal has been a model of consistency since taking over as closer full time in 2009. He'll give you everything you want in a closer from a low ERA, plenty of Ks & saves in the 30-40 range. His only drawback is he's blown an unusal number of saves (15) the last two years so you might have to deal with the bad as well as the good. This is somewhat mystifying as his stuff is solid. Florida has made grumblings that if this inconsistency continues, they may replace him with Clay Hensley. That is a possibility made even more likely as Nunez might be dealt (Texas comes to mind if they insist on the stupidity of moving Feliz to a starter's role) if the Marlins fall out of contention (could easily happen). You are taking a chance with him but the rewards could be big. At this point, I see him as a middle of the pack #2 closer.
RHP Clay Hensley - I always liked his stuff & it looks like he might finally establish a true MLB role soon. He shone across the board as the #2 closer option in Florida last year, including a sterling strikeout ratio. The only concern is he also blew 3 saves in 10 chances. Though I think Nunez will be given every chance to get it right in 2011. There is certainly a strong possibility Hensley might be the closer sometime this summer. Watch this development.
Lineup
1. CF Chris Coghlan - After announcing his arrival with a solid 2009, he regressed in all offensive areas last year. Appearing in only 96 games due to ailments was part of that story and I think he'll rebound this year as long as he's ready to go. He's again been slowed this spring by a sore right throwing shoulder so it makes you wonder if he'll be fragile throughout his MLB career. As a lead off hitter, he won't amass more than double digit steals and probably has the same top ceiling in HRs along with a BA in the .280 range and 50 RBIs. Not what you'd like from a fantasy outfielder so I'd only bite if I need one late in the draft. There is also the possibility that he could move to 3B if Dominguez is deemed not ready to man that position yet.
2. 2B Omar Infante - After many years as a utility player in Detroit and Atlanta, he'll be given the job to start the season as the Emilio Bonafacio infield experiment is put on hold. He's hit close to or at .300 the last three years and has the pop to get you double digit homers. Though honored as a 2010 All-Star, I don't think his production or lack of stolen base ability merits a starting job on a fantasy team. If you need a backup middle infielder late in the draft, go ahead and get him.
3. SS Hanley Ramirez - Once considered by far the best at his position & still suprisingly ranked #1 overall on some fantasy tote boards, injuries and a steady decrease in power numbers over the last 5 seasons has raised a concern. A young 27, I still rank Ramirez as the prize of all MLB fantasy shortstops. I do expect a rebound from last year and he might even throw up some SB numbers close to what he had in 2006 & 2007 this year. Depending on where I pick in round one I'd have to seriously think if his projected 2011 are worthy of selection. As a friend always says: "You want a 1st round pick with no warts" & last year sure produced a few blemishes. Keep in mind that this is one of the most sparse positions in fantasy baseball so you have to weigh that against someone who could probably give you better power numbers, the same type BA & less steals at another more abundant position.
4. RF Mike Stanton - Stanton broke out of prospect status with a mighty power display last season. It is debatable if Florida will entrust him in the clean up role this year as he could bat as low as 6th. His 2010 campaign was bothered by an injury and he has a quad strain keeping him on the shelf this spring as well. This might mean Sanchez moves into the #4 hole until Stanton is good to go. There is no doubt his power numbers could be monstrous over a full season and he does have the ability to hit in the .270 range. Strikeout totals throughout his career will probably remain very high and the incidence of injury, severe or nagging, should also give you pause. With solid outfielders in fantasy baseball declining, it is tempting to throw a fairly high pick Stanton's way but I won't join in more than a later middle round pick due to the question marks so I probably won't land him.
5. 1B Gaby Sanchez - As I mentioned, Sanchez will probably occupy the #4 hole in the batting order on opening day & that's not a bad thing. He found his power stroke in his 1st full season last year hitting 19 HRs & driving in 85. He has the swing to get to the mid 20s in HRs & 100 RBIs by developing more upper body power and that would fit in well with Florida's plans. I like him even more as a young hitter than Stanton at this point & should be drafted as a middle/late starter at 1st or a steal as a backup corner infielder.
6. LF Logan Morrison - Rounding out the trio of young Marlin grass patrollers, Morrison also showed some promise in 244 2010 ABs. He won't give you the power numbers you want from this position but will drive in runs & hit for an average close to .300. I don't see him as a draft day candidate but he does bear watching as the season moves along.
7. C John Buck - A 2010 All-Star free agent from the Blue Jays, power numbers are the strength of his fantasy game. He's unlikely to repeat the HR, RBI and BA stats from last year going to a park (and league) that will be more difficult to produce in. I would slot him as one of the last starting catcher candidates or a capable backup on a fantasy roster who will give you occasional production outbursts during the season but not on a regular basis.
8. 3B Matt Dominguez - Another in a line of promising young Marlin hitters, this young 21 year old may need more time in the minors to hone his swing. He'll be given a legitimate shot to win the spot but I'm not sure he'll break camp as the starter. His spring has been anything but successful hitting .219 but has displayed his power with 2 HRs & 10 RBIs. I can't recommend him for a fantasy roster spot as I'm of the belief he needs more at bats down on the farm never having made a MLB at bat appearance.
Possibilities
2B Osvaldo Martinez - A shortstop by trade, the Marlins won't consider him there with Ramirez in his prime. Florida has more concerns at 2B and hitting .302 with 90 runs scored and 13 steals last year at AA opened some eyes that he might be MLB ready. Probably starting 2011 in AAA or backing Infante up, his wait for a big league chance might be this summer.
2B Osvaldo Martinez - A shortstop by trade, the Marlins won't consider him there with Ramirez in his prime. Florida has more concerns at 2B and hitting .302 with 90 runs scored and 13 steals last year at AA opened some eyes that he might be MLB ready. Probably starting 2011 in AAA or backing Infante up, his wait for a big league chance might be this summer.
RHP Tom Koehler - Due to a rash of injuries among what was thought to be a very solid rotation, able bodied starters might be in demand for the Marlins. This sturdily built right hander has yet to log a regular season appearance for Florida but at 24, his time might be now. Going 16-2 with the second best ERA and K total in AA last year earned him the Southern League pitcher of the year trophy. He hasn't started a spring game yet so the Marlins probably think he'll need more time in the minors 1st but could be an early season call up as Florida's rotation doesn't look bulletproof all of a sudden.
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