MINNESOTA TWINS
Rotation
1. RHP Carl Pavano - I was surprised by the solid 2010 Pavano had winning 17 games with a 3.75 ERA. My guess is that when the opening day bell rings, he might be slotted #2 in the rotation. He's not a starter who's going to give you a lot of K's and his career shows a middling ERA, high batting average against & less than sterling WHIP. I tend to think that this year will bring wins again (though maybe not the total of 2010) as Minnesota has the offense and bullpen to notch consistent wins. Though he has been virtually untouched this spring, I still see a 2011 campaign with higher ERA & WHIP. A middle of the pack #3 fantasy starter at best.
2. LHP Francisco Liriano - There is no doubt that when healthy, a still young (27) Liriano has some of the best pitching tools in the game. The problem is that injuries have followed him throughout his MLB life. He's a strikeout machine who might be given the ball for the Twins 1st game but already seems to have a bothersome spring injury. So far he's only pitched 1-2/3 spring innings and gotten lit up in the process. I'd love to have him in my rotation but the specter of having him miss plenty of starts keeps me away. #1 type starter talent but I can't afford the roster spot that may not give me tangible stats.
3. RHP Scott Baker - Somewhat of an enigma as his MLB history shows stretches of solid performances followed by periods of bad ones. He has also had injuries following him the last few years but seems more durable than Liriano. He's had the same mixed results this spring but has the pitches to get MLB hitters out when he's on. Unfortunately, you don't know what you're going to get from him each time out. I see double digit wins, an ERA in the low 4.00s & and decent strikeout numbers this year. I'd only draft him if I'm scrambling for a last starter and the end.
4. LHP Brian Duensing - Interesting that Minnesota has Duensing slotted #4 after the breakout year he had in 2010. In my opinion, this is the safest bet in the Twin rotation and I'd jump on it with both feet. He's picking up right where he left off in 2010 this spring and I also think he has the stuff to be a consistent strikeout pitcher. Count me as among his fans to just keep getting better. A budding ace that Minnesota needs and no worse the a high fantasy 3rd starter, perhaps a stud #2 this year.
5. RHP Nick Blackburn - He's had a good spring so far but I'm just not convinced. His career numbers (4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP & .296 BA against) support my skepticism and last year wasn't any better. He might reach double digit wins but the rest of the numbers will make you fume. If he doesn't improve, I don't think he's long for this rotation spot.
Closer
RHP Joe Nathan - Last year's injury brought a hiccup to a virtually spotless career. He's been unscored upon in 3 spring appearances so far but concentrating on building arm strength. Not sure where he'll be at when the games begin in earnest but I feel confident he's be in his customary role early this year. A true top of the class closer for a team that will give him plenty of opportunities. I'd see what develops this spring as the season nears and enlist him as a #1 closer if he breaks camp as the go to guy role.
RHP Matt Capps - May begin the season as the closer if Nathan isn't ready. He's matched Nathan this spring except for better K results so he's the one Minnesota will turn to. He is inconsistent in terms of giving up a lot of hits and walks but seems to be very solid in closing out games. If he stays in this role, I'd say draft him high but don't see that happening. The Twins may ease Nathan back into the closer's role this year or give Capps equal time. In any case, until the situation has been established, you're not going to get high save numbers from either. It would be a gamble drafting Capps as a #1 or #2 closer as he could wind up in the 8th inning role for the better part of the 2011 season.
Lineup
1. CF Denard Span - After crashing the boards with a breakout year in 2009, he regressed a bit last season. Steals and BA were slightly down. I don't think there's any reason for concern as he's been a terror hitting this spring. I'd go so far as to say his ability to score runs, steal bases & hit for possibly .300 or better makes him a high #2 outfielder choice.
2. 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka - A new Japanese import for the Twins, you never know how that will translate into 1st year MLB numbers. Slated to play second base, his Japanese pedigree looks like he'll be able to convert his game easily into MLB success. He's hitting well this spring and I think you'll get quality numbers in BA, runs scored and steals. If you're looking for a starting 2B later in your fantasy draft, this pick should reward you.
3. C Joe Mauer - Considered the premier fantasy (and MLB) catcher, recent injuries have diminished his fantasy stats, particularly in production. Also of concern is the fact that he has yet to make a spring appearance so we're not sure on his health status. When right, he'll give you numbers on another level for catchers in BA, RBI & runs scored. I am concerned that his HR swing may not return for a while, if ever. Many will draft him very high but for me, with the infusion of budding young stars at the position in MLB, I'm hesitant to draft him high enough to get him.
4. 1B Justin Morneau - His status mirrors Mauer in many ways. When healthy, there isn't a better all around hitter in the game. As well, he hasn't logged any spring at bats but plans to see action on 3/11. I would spend a very high pick on him if i could be assured he's ready to go in 2011 as he'll give astronomical numbers across the board (except for steals). I'm going to play the waiting game this spring but if you see indications that he's ready, he might not be there past round 2 or 3.
5. RF Michael Cuddyer - Has settled in nicely in the Twins lineup the last two years though the HR output was down in 2010. A wart removal on his foot has also meant no spring at bats for him so far and the location bears watching. When right, this is a very draftable #3 outfielder who'll give solid numbers across the board (and even steal a few bases) but again I'm playing the waiting game until I see he's ready for 2011.
6. DH Jason Kubel/Jim Thome - Two left handed hitters sharing the DH role doesn't bode well for consistent stats from either one. Minnesota's commitment to signing Thome means both will get opportunities. You'll get good power numbers from both but sharing playing time will diminish the stats you need on a daily basis. For what it's worth, Kubel has had a very good spring and Thome has not so I'd lean in that direction. Not sure I'd draft either unless needing some power late in my selection.
7. LF Delmon Young - No spring at bats yet either for Young (is this a recurring theme among Twin starters?). The former Tampa Bay phenom does carry a lifetime .292 BA and had a nice year in 2010. not sure when he'll appear in a spring game but I think he'll be ready when the season begins. It is a good sign that his strikeout totals have gone down dramatically four years in a row. This could be a fantasy stud season for Young (though he did amass 112 RBIs in 2010 already). I'd rank him as high as a #2 or #3 fantasy outfielder.
8. 3B Danny Valencia - Hitting .400 this spring, it is certainly possible he could carry a .300 2011 BA. You'll also get decent numbers in the other offensive categories & he won't strikeout a lot. Hard to place him given the moving target 3B candidates are in MLB right now. I'd like him as a back up at the position but might be worthy of drafting as a late starter if you need it.
9. SS Alexi Casilla - Did hit .276 last year but low SB and runs scored numbers turns me away. Not draftable but keep tabs.
Possibilities
RHP Kevin Slowey - Control and the ability to pick up wins by hanging in games is his strong suit. He could be called upon to re-enter the rotation if one of the starter falters or is hurt (certainly a strong possibility in both cases). Has made 2 spring appearances with less than happy results. Keep a watch here.
Kyle Gibson - A live heater, above average slider and changeup has swiftly moved Gibson thorugh the organization after being a 2009 1st round pick. I'm not sure he'll go north with the big club but could get a call up this year fairly early if needed. 2 appearances this spring have yielded less than stellar results but he's on the fast track.
Ben Revere - Speed is his strong suit and in a brief 2010 stint with the Twins, he only hit .179. Has already stolen 4, scored 4 runs and knocked in 3 this spring in 16 at bats but since Minnesota's outfield picture is set, he'll have to wait for an opening.
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