TAMPA BAY RAYS
Rotation
1. LHP David Price - Think last season was his ceiling? I don't think so. Though his 2011 spring got off to a rocky start, it was the same in 2010. Just learning how to handle major league hitters make his future potential limitless. He can either overpower or baffle hitters with his fastball/change up combination. Barring injuries, 20+ win seasons with league leading K's might be the norm. Hard to think of a pitcher that might be a better #1.
2. RHP James Shields - He's the slated second starter, but three straight years of escalating ERAs is definitely a cause for concern. This is somewhat balanced by the fact that he doesn't appear to have lost velocity or his out pitch as he recorded his best K total in 2010 and is having a good spring so far. I don't think you'll ever see him winning more than 13-14 games a year and he has streaks where he's awfully hittable. No better than a 3rd starter for your fantasy team.
3. RHP Jeff Niemann- Though the strained right shoulder torpedoed his 2010 season and he was awful after that, he season ERA has never been lower than 3.94 and regularly sits in the 4.00s & 5.00s. The Rays continue to stick with him but I wouldn't draft him for my team.
4. RHP Wade Davis - After showing great promise in 6 2009 starts, he took a step backwards in 2010 with an ERA over 4.00 and a much more pedestrian K ratio. I believe he does have the stuff to be a quality starter in MLB but wouldn't expect more than James Shields type stats going forward at best. I also don't know if he'll ever approach his almost 1 strikeout per inning ratio he hit in his brief 2009 stint.
5.RHP Jeremy Hellickson - OK, I'm not only on this bandwagon, I'm riding shotgun on it. Extremely polished for a 23 year old, MLB got a real glimpse of the future last year with a 4-0 record, 3.47 ERA & a high strikeout to innings pitched ratio. Beginning the year as the 5th starter and probably going against most other teams respective starters, this could be the best kept secret in baseball for 2011. I honestly believe his ceiling is as high or higher than David Price and he has all the pitches to have hitters going back to the dugout trying to figure out what happened. If he finds his way to your fantasy roster, not only will you be smiling, you'll never have any fear of starting him everytime out.
2. RHP James Shields - He's the slated second starter, but three straight years of escalating ERAs is definitely a cause for concern. This is somewhat balanced by the fact that he doesn't appear to have lost velocity or his out pitch as he recorded his best K total in 2010 and is having a good spring so far. I don't think you'll ever see him winning more than 13-14 games a year and he has streaks where he's awfully hittable. No better than a 3rd starter for your fantasy team.
3. RHP Jeff Niemann- Though the strained right shoulder torpedoed his 2010 season and he was awful after that, he season ERA has never been lower than 3.94 and regularly sits in the 4.00s & 5.00s. The Rays continue to stick with him but I wouldn't draft him for my team.
4. RHP Wade Davis - After showing great promise in 6 2009 starts, he took a step backwards in 2010 with an ERA over 4.00 and a much more pedestrian K ratio. I believe he does have the stuff to be a quality starter in MLB but wouldn't expect more than James Shields type stats going forward at best. I also don't know if he'll ever approach his almost 1 strikeout per inning ratio he hit in his brief 2009 stint.
5.RHP Jeremy Hellickson - OK, I'm not only on this bandwagon, I'm riding shotgun on it. Extremely polished for a 23 year old, MLB got a real glimpse of the future last year with a 4-0 record, 3.47 ERA & a high strikeout to innings pitched ratio. Beginning the year as the 5th starter and probably going against most other teams respective starters, this could be the best kept secret in baseball for 2011. I honestly believe his ceiling is as high or higher than David Price and he has all the pitches to have hitters going back to the dugout trying to figure out what happened. If he finds his way to your fantasy roster, not only will you be smiling, you'll never have any fear of starting him everytime out.
Closer
RHP Kyle Farnsworth - As J.P. Howell will probably not be ready to start the season, all signs point to Farnsworth beginning the season as the closer. I liked him when he was the 8th inning guy for the Cubs and thought he should have been given the chance to close then. Though he still can strike people out, I think he has lost some velocity off his fastball and might blow up with regularity this year in Tampa Bay. I wouldn't draft him.
LHP Jake McGee - Sure it was a short stint last year but a 1.80 ERA, .118 average against and better than a strikeout per inning ratio what's not to like about this young flame thrower? Watch this development closely as he could have a tryout for the closer's role as soon as May or June. If so, I think he'll flourish to the same success that Neftali Feliz did in Texas last year.
Lineup
Lineup
1. C John Jaso (L) - I'm willing to experiment as much as the next guy but what's going on here? A lead off guy who hit .263 with 4 SB in 339 AB last year, I can almost hear Keyshawn Johnson saying: "Come On, Man!". Well, as you can tell, I'm not on board. If you're scrounging for a 2nd catcher be my guest. No thanks.
2. LF Johnny Damon (L) - A steady decline over the past five years in average, SB & runs scored may mean its time for Johnny to pack it in soon. Tampa had an outfield hole to fill and went this route. If you're looking desperately for a 5th or 6th OF to fill out your roster OK as he'll put up some stats. Not on my team you don't.
3. 3B Evan Longoria (R) - At a position that used to be loaded but has been in decline for the past couple of years, this is a 1st round solid who is just starting to hit his stride, but I don't have to tell you that. His slight decline in HRs last year was offset by 15 SB and I expect that power to return this year even with a weaker supporting cast.
4. DH Manny Ramirez (R) - Being acquired simultaneously with Johnny Damon is very ironic as these two seem headed down the same path. He did hit .298 last year but at 38, it seems most of his fearsome power is disappearing rapidly. Probably still eligible at OF which helps his case as all of a sudden quality hitting outfielders are scarce in baseball. As with Damon, I might grab him for my last roster spot but that's it.
5. RF Ben Zobrist (S) or Matt Joyce (L) - Strange case here. So Zobrist has a decline from his fabulous 2009 and all of a sudden he becomes a utility/platoon player. I don't agree at all and think he should be given the full time post at 1B (see below). Wherever he lands, I see a strong rebound year from him & those that draft him will see that too. What has Matt Joyce done to deserve regular playing time other than being a warm body? Sure he does have the potential to become a quality hitter but a .243 BA & 25 HRs in three Major League seasons doesn't speak to me. Improvement before accolades here.
6. 2B Sean Rodriguez (R) - Not much black and white to crow about this former Angels prospect but I suspect there's more here than meets the eye. Though hitting only .251 with good power numbers in 2010, his bat seemed to come alive a bit late in the year. If he's given a chance to start for a while, he might just produce as he does have good hitting instincts. A late roster backup 2B if you need one, otherwise its the Watch List.
7. 1B Dan Johnson (L) - A Matt Joyce type of case here, only less to hang your hat on. This should be the permanent residence of Ben Zobrist for 2011 but Johnson will be given the initial chance. Yes, there's some power here (51HR and 184 RBI in 5 MLB seasons) but a low career average (.243) says more to me. This isn't going to be a replacement for Carlos Pena and I see Tampa making a move early this season away from him.
8. CF B.J. Upton (R) - With the departure of Carl Crawford, Upton holds the mantle as Tampa's best outfielder. More's the pity as his strikeout proficiency, low batting average & sometime questionable hustle are offset by his base stealing ability, occasionally consistent power & ability to cover a lot of outfield ground. A 3rd outfield roster spot at best mainly for his SB prowess but expect long seasonal gaps in production.
9.SS Reid Brignac (L) - Very similar to Sean Rodriguez in many ways. He has the hitting chops to do better than the .256 he sported in 2010 and perhaps a shot at the full time job will turn him around. Like Rodriguez the power is also there, a sought after quality for middle infielders. If you really need a backup SS, a flier on Brignac might pay off. Otherwise watch closely.
Possibilities
2. LF Johnny Damon (L) - A steady decline over the past five years in average, SB & runs scored may mean its time for Johnny to pack it in soon. Tampa had an outfield hole to fill and went this route. If you're looking desperately for a 5th or 6th OF to fill out your roster OK as he'll put up some stats. Not on my team you don't.
3. 3B Evan Longoria (R) - At a position that used to be loaded but has been in decline for the past couple of years, this is a 1st round solid who is just starting to hit his stride, but I don't have to tell you that. His slight decline in HRs last year was offset by 15 SB and I expect that power to return this year even with a weaker supporting cast.
4. DH Manny Ramirez (R) - Being acquired simultaneously with Johnny Damon is very ironic as these two seem headed down the same path. He did hit .298 last year but at 38, it seems most of his fearsome power is disappearing rapidly. Probably still eligible at OF which helps his case as all of a sudden quality hitting outfielders are scarce in baseball. As with Damon, I might grab him for my last roster spot but that's it.
5. RF Ben Zobrist (S) or Matt Joyce (L) - Strange case here. So Zobrist has a decline from his fabulous 2009 and all of a sudden he becomes a utility/platoon player. I don't agree at all and think he should be given the full time post at 1B (see below). Wherever he lands, I see a strong rebound year from him & those that draft him will see that too. What has Matt Joyce done to deserve regular playing time other than being a warm body? Sure he does have the potential to become a quality hitter but a .243 BA & 25 HRs in three Major League seasons doesn't speak to me. Improvement before accolades here.
6. 2B Sean Rodriguez (R) - Not much black and white to crow about this former Angels prospect but I suspect there's more here than meets the eye. Though hitting only .251 with good power numbers in 2010, his bat seemed to come alive a bit late in the year. If he's given a chance to start for a while, he might just produce as he does have good hitting instincts. A late roster backup 2B if you need one, otherwise its the Watch List.
7. 1B Dan Johnson (L) - A Matt Joyce type of case here, only less to hang your hat on. This should be the permanent residence of Ben Zobrist for 2011 but Johnson will be given the initial chance. Yes, there's some power here (51HR and 184 RBI in 5 MLB seasons) but a low career average (.243) says more to me. This isn't going to be a replacement for Carlos Pena and I see Tampa making a move early this season away from him.
8. CF B.J. Upton (R) - With the departure of Carl Crawford, Upton holds the mantle as Tampa's best outfielder. More's the pity as his strikeout proficiency, low batting average & sometime questionable hustle are offset by his base stealing ability, occasionally consistent power & ability to cover a lot of outfield ground. A 3rd outfield roster spot at best mainly for his SB prowess but expect long seasonal gaps in production.
9.SS Reid Brignac (L) - Very similar to Sean Rodriguez in many ways. He has the hitting chops to do better than the .256 he sported in 2010 and perhaps a shot at the full time job will turn him around. Like Rodriguez the power is also there, a sought after quality for middle infielders. If you really need a backup SS, a flier on Brignac might pay off. Otherwise watch closely.
Possibilities
OF Desmond Jennings (R) - If Joyce or Damon falters & Jennings figures out how to hit Major League pitching, his speed and defensive ability might earn him a spot in Tampa's outfield late this summer.
LHP J.P. Howell - Before Rafael Soriano's arrival, Howell was a solid closer in 2009 (17 saves, 2.84 ERA, .197 BA against and 79K in 66-2/3 innings). He probably won't be ready to start the season with the Rays and aside from his inconsistency, I'm not sure how the surgically repaired left shoulder will bounce back this year. Keep an eye on his progress, but don't expect good production this year.
LHP J.P. Howell - Before Rafael Soriano's arrival, Howell was a solid closer in 2009 (17 saves, 2.84 ERA, .197 BA against and 79K in 66-2/3 innings). He probably won't be ready to start the season with the Rays and aside from his inconsistency, I'm not sure how the surgically repaired left shoulder will bounce back this year. Keep an eye on his progress, but don't expect good production this year.
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