TEXAS RANGERS
Rotation
1. LHP C.J. Wilson - Cliff Lee's free agent departure leaves Wilson as the ace of the staff, while he did have a breakout year in 2010, he wasn't quite as sharp in the 2nd half. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that he never came close to the 204 innings he logged last year. I'm not sure he'd be considered a #1 starter on most playoff teams. He also added 170 strikeouts but wasn't quite as dominant in that category as the season went on. I do believe he'll continue to deliver quality numbers in the future that are similar to what 2010 showed so I'll slot him as a #2 or #3 fantasy starter.
2. RHP Colby Lewis - Another rotation surprise as he won 12 games, posted a 3.72 ERA & came close to a strikeout per inning ratio. I'm not sure the ERA will stay there as his career shows a much higher number there and in WHIP but I do think he'll continue to generate Ks at a similar rate and again win 12-15 games. Might be worth a late flyer to fill out your starting staff.
3. RHP Brandon Webb - 2 injury riddled years removed from 3 sensational seasons in Arizona, it's hard to predict which Brandon Webb will show up in 2011 and when as he's not taken the mound yet this spring. A pitcher who relied on his sinker as the out pitch, that should play well for the Rangers if he's ready. The most recent reports say he's 100% and he did throw a live BP session on 3/9. This could be the ultimate risk/reward gamble for any starter in 2011 as if he returns to his all-star form, you've got a solid #1 starter across the board in pitching stats that could easily replace Cliff Lee's numbers. I'd follow him this spring but would not take a chance on a high pick for him until some results are in.
4. RHP Tommy Hunter - An amazing successful 2010 is that much more difficult to believe as he doesn't strike many people out and has a high WHIP. I don't know what happened but I'm skeptical of an encore. I think he'll revert back to form and have trouble duplicating last year's numbers to have a less than exciting 2011 campaign.
5. LHP Derek Holland - It is still questionable who lands in this spot for 2011, but my money is on Holland. Though yet to put any decent totals in wins, ERA & WHIP in his short 2 year stint, there's no denying he has the ability to miss bats. On his strikeout potential alone, I think the Rangers want him in there. Not a roster filler but keep watching his progress.
Closer
RHP Neftali Feliz - Some of the noises coming out of the Ranger press releases are almost laughable recently including the one about Feliz possibly joining the rotation this year. Sure the starting 5 needs help but with his dominating success as the closer last year, no one to take his place in that role, and my concern that he has the endurance and mental focus to become a quality starter, it seems like a dumb move. If that was the plan all along, why didn't big spending Texas management go out and find a closer (like Soriano, who sat there for a long time) in the off season? In my mind, he's a top shelf closer who could easily still improve on his stellar across the board 2010 numbers this year, but his value goes down dramatically if placed in the rotation.
Lineup
1. 2B Ian Kinsler - Kinsler got off track in 2009 trying to swing for the fences at the expense of a high BA. If he's good to go, you won't get better overall numbers from any 2nd baseman in the game. Unfortunately, he hasn't been completely right with injuries following him around like a dark cloud. Similar to Cruz, he has yet to play more than 130 games in any single season. 30 HR/SB stats are well within his abilities with a BA hovering around .300, 80-90 RBIs and 100 runs scored if he can stay on the field. You won't get that from many other middle infielders but the injury risk is very high to torpedo your fantasy season.
2. SS Elvis Andrus - Once considered the answer to the Texas lead off problem, he still could find his way to the top of the lineup if Texas feels it is better in the scheme of things to have Kinsler bat 2nd. Two years in the bigs have yielded a BA in the .260 range and a less than hoped for on base percentage but the already glimpsed promise of scoring runs and stealing bases keeps this hope alive. I'd only go after him if I need a very late starter at SS or a back up there.
3. LF Josh Hamilton - This is 1 player I don't have any fantasy Karma with. Every year I had him he underachieved and was hurt and the in between years I didn't he put up All-Star/MVP stats. The truth of the matter is he's an offensive terror when healthy but a DL riding bum when not. If you're willing to risk he'll have 2 injury free years in a row, he could deliver big again in 2011 but be forewarned that he could easily land on the DL in April and put a big bullet hole in your fantasy season. Believe me, I know.
4. RF Nelson Cruz - For my money, this is the Ranger I want on my team more than anyone else. Batting him 4th for more early inning RBI opportunities and putting Beltre #5 is a great move by the Rangers. He suffered through an injury dotted year in 2010 but still managed to wring out some pretty good numbers in only 399 ABs. He's never been able to play more than 128 games in a single season but if he does, I shudder to think about the results. A natural .300 hitter with awesome power to all fields, he's also that rare player who can steal 20+ bases as well. He should be ready to roll in spite of less than customary spring stats. I'm in for a high draft pick here.
5. 3B Adrian Beltre - Beltre delivered in his 2010 FA year in Boston but went shopping again and found the Rangers a willing spender. He'll never approach the monster year he had with the Dodgers in 2004 but could produce another year of 30 HRs, 100+ RBIs and a BA north of .300. I don't know anyone who wouldn't take that. He does have a history of injuries and has one now but is supposed to rejoin the Texas lineup Monday the 14th for his 1st spring training at bats. Probably a very safe bet to give you top of the line stats from 3B. Just don't try to take off his hat or touch his head, even if you're a teammate. You might draw back a stump!
6. DH Michael Young - Wanting out of Texas after the Rangers acquired Beltre, he may still wind up at 3rd to start the year if Beltre's calf strain is more serious. In any event, he'll still be eligible at 3rd and can give very good numbers in all but stolen bases where he'll still give you a handful. He might be somewhere else next year or even later this season but putting up a close .300 BA with 100 runs scored, 20+ HRs & 90+ RBIs makes him a starting 3rd baseman for a fantasy team.
7. 1B Mitch Moreland - He doesn't have anyone breathing down his neck for the 1st base job this year other than getting spelled once in a while by Napoli. That alone should make him more relaxed at the plate. Last year's stats were nothing to write home about but he's put together quite a spring so far. Texas will give him plenty of rope to make the position his own so if you're looking for a utility hitter with some pop late in your draft, this might be the ticket.
8. C Yorvit Torrealba - Torrealba gets the start here & probably log most of the time at catcher. If he falters, expect Napoli to take over sooner rather than later. I find it interesting that Texas has traded away most if not all of their young catching prospects in favor of this journeyman with limited offensive skills. Wouldn't touch him on a 1 catcher team and would have to think twice about it in a 2 catcher league. There are plenty of young catchers now at the MLB level with vastly more upside.
9. CF Julio Borbon - A season and a half of decent numbers wasn't enough to keep the Borbon lead off experiment on for 2011. Though experiencing extreme hot and cold spells hitting, his numbers may warrant another chance to start the Texas offense sometime in the near future. His overall BA for 2009 & 2010 (.312 & .276 respectively) took me by surprise as I clearly remember him hitting well below .200 for a good portion of each season. His spring stats indicate he may be ready to become a .300 hitter who is among the leaders in runs scored and steals in 2011 but he also posted similar stats the spring before. I'm not going to bite on a high or middle pick for my team but if he's available later on, he just could provide a big lift in his forte categories this year.
Possibilities
RHP Tanner Scheppers - He's been torn apart in 2 spring appearances but I don't think that's indicative of his future potential. Having ace type stuff and rarely throwing his heater at less than 97 MPH, he was also considered as a replacement for Feliz at closer. I don't think this will happen as I'm sure Texas views him as their future #1 starter and probably wanted to limit his innings as most teams are doing with their prized pitchers now. There is surely more than a possibility he begins 2011 in the Ranger pen and move to the rotation but he could also be sent down to log regular innings. I definitely think the latter is best for his development and we'll probably see him in the Ranger rotation sooner rather than later.
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