PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Rotation
1. RHP Roy Halladay - At the top of the best 4 man rotation baseball can boast resides the best starting pitcher in the game today. Coming up on 34 hasn't slowed this dominating ace down at all, in fact if anything, he's gotten even better the last few years. Winning 21 in 2010, his 1st season with the Phils, he improved on all of his 2009 AND career numbers across the board. He'll also give you solid K numbers too. We can toss superlatives around all day but the bottom line is he's the 1st starter off the board and as high as the #6 overall pick.
2. LHP Cliff Lee - He struggled when moving to Texas in the 2nd half of 2010 but I don't think that is a cause for concern. Entering his 2nd tour of duty with the Phillies, past history though brief indicates he'll do fine there. In recent years, he's also actually improved his K ratio too. It is hard to separate the talent after Halladay but Lee is worthy of a number 2 slot. In a full season with the Phils he could easily top 20 wins. He won't give you the strikeout or ERA numbers of Doc Halladay but who will? He slots as a late #1 or a very early #2 fantasy starter.
3. RHP Roy Oswalt - As the season for Philadelphia begins, Oswalt is slotted 3rd but that doesn't mean he's 3rd best. The idea is to keep opposition bats off balance by alternating righty/lefty in the rotation. This is a good idea. He's also the 3rd recent import for the starting staff, being rescued from a then hellish Astro existence in 2010. His career numbers show few if any blemishes as he's maintained good ERA, WHIP & K numbers. His win totals have been on the decline but most of that can be blamed on the Astros inability to win as a team. His K ratio is also similar to Halladay's & he's another plus 30 resident of a bought and paid for starting staff that has plenty left in the tank. A solid middle #2 fantasy starter.
4. LHP Cole Hamels - The only home grown product in the current 5 man rotation, his win totals have slipped a little the past 2 years. He still managed a solid 3.06 ERA & 1.18 WHIP while winning only 12 games in 2010. I tend to think he might benefit the most this year with the way the rotation sets him up as #4. Easily having the best K ratio on this staff gets my attention right away and he bettered the 9K/IP mark last year. He's just hitting his stride at 27 and I wouldn't hesitate to not only rank him with Lee & Oswalt, I see him as a very good #2 fantasy starter for 2011 & you'd be very lucky to get him as a #3 improving dramatically in his win total. Mental lapses causing wildness during the game & injuries are the only concerns I have.
5. RHP Joe Blanton - Everyone keeps saying what a hidden talent Blanton is but I'm of the opinion he's a big step down from the front four. Winning only 9 in 2010, he also sported a bloated ERA just under 5.00. THE WHIP, K ratio & average against were also poor so I'm saying where's the talent? He'll gobble up innings but that's about it. I see him no better than a middle of the road #5 starter and I'm hoping to do better with the pitcher who holds that spot on my fantasy team.
Closer
RHP Brad Lidge - I've had Lidge on my fantasy team more than a few times and been lucky enough for those to be his best years (his prime Astro years and 2008 with the Phils). At 34, he still carries the plus 95 heater and a hitter baffling slider but age has made him more susceptible to injuries. He's had bicep tendinitis this spring after also missing regular season time last year. Lidge is saying he felt fine after a 35 pitch bullpen session on 3/18, but I expect more ailments to crop up with increasing regularity. It also appears that he's slower to regain top form from each successive physical problem. When healthy & focused, he's still lights out but I'm not sure that's the case now. He's been buffeted around this spring and as much as I fondly remember the players who helped me out in the past, I can't get on board this year. He could turn out fine but I don't want him any higher than a lower area #2 closer.
RHP Ryan Madson - Madson is the guy who's stood in for Lidge before and the results have been mixed. He certainly has the live fastball & superior K ratio to succeed at this role. Last season was the 1st in a long time that he sported an ERA under the 1.23 mark and while he saved 5 he also blew the same number in 10 chances. He has been very effective this spring but I feel he's best suited in the 8th inning role where he shines. If Lidge's injury lingers on, I won't seek Madson's help for saves either.
Lineup
1. SS Jimmy Rollins - Rollins returns to the top of the order after a very disappointing 2010. Injuries did limit him to only 350 ABs for the 1st time in his All-Star studded career but it interesting to note that he's posted low batting averages for 2 successive seasons. I think he can rebound this year to score a customary 100 runs and steal 40-60 bases. Past history has shown him capable of hitting 20+ HRs in a season as well and perhaps raise his average to the .280-.290 range. Numbers you'd gladly take in your starting SS. He is in a walk year so that should also be an incentive to do well. I can't guarantee he'll hit all those projections and he's not an elite player at this position anymore but you could do a lot worse for your starter at this weak position.
2. CF Shane Victorino - After last year's experiment lower (6th & 7th) in the order, the Phils realized their mistake and put him in the #2 hole which best suits his obvious talents. He came through in 2010 anyway with his best ever power numbers while still stealing a near career best 34 bases as well. A slight drop off in runs scored and a career low BA can somewhat be attributed to him hopping around in the batting lineup for most of the season. He's not slowing down at 30 but adding a bit of power to his game instead and he's hit .341 this spring. A solid #3 fantasy outfielder who might give you #2 stats this year.
3. 2B Chase Utley - I jumped at the chance to draft Utley in the #5 spot last year and paid dearly for it. An injury plagued season forced me to drop him early and I never looked back. A myriad of spring knee injuries has resulted in Utley leaving camp to see a mysterious rehab specialist. This not only doesn't sound good but hints at a longer recovery period as the Phillies are saying they can win without him. When right, he delivers stand alone numbers from the 2nd base position though the knee injuries may put an end to his stolen base ability. In 2011, he's way too iffy to even draft other than as a very late roster waste pick for stowing. With Utley out of the order, someone will have to move into the #3 hole (perhaps Ibanez) and is one of a few dents showing up now in a once bulletproof lineup. With Utley out for probably an extended period, the Phils will either choose from light hitting Wilson Valdez, recently released former Met Luis Castillo or my choice, revitalized former Cleveland prospect Josh Barfield (see below).
4. 1B Ryan Howard - Howard is the prototypical benchmark of what you want from a fantasy 1st baseman (other than the huge amount of yearly strikeouts). He did cut down on that in 2010 but all of his positive power numbers took a tumble as well. The debate is whether this is a blip in the road or the start of a decline. At 31 & dedicated to staying in shape, I'm of the former opinion and he's shown it with major plus offensive numbers this spring. Still having Rollins & Victorino ahead of him should provide plenty of RBI chances also. I don't rank him in the elite class at his position anymore but you could do much worse as your starting 1st baseman.
5. 3B Placido Polanco - Another chink appeared in the Phils offensive armor as oft injured Polanco hyper-extended his left elbow in a 3/15 (beware the Ides of March indeed) spring game. It is unclear whether this is something that will have him missing any significant playing time or not but the team is downplaying the injury. He hadn't hit a lick this spring so far and his production numbers fell in 2010 also. At 35, his best years are probably behind him so if he's healthy enough to play at full stride on opening day, he'd be a lower rung starting 3rd baseman or a nice back up corner infielder. I'd probably slot him too low to get him for my team. If his injury needs time, I'd expect Valdez to replace him.
6. LF Raul Ibanez - As I said, he might be moving to the #3 hole while Utley is out, which would move everyone else up a spot and put the winner of the 2nd base sweepstakes at 7 or 8 unless it is Castillo. While spending time in that lineup spot before, I'm not sure how much Ibanez can deliver there now as he nears 39. He's still a fairly capable bat who'll probably hit around .270, could approch 20 HRs & 80 RBIs plus steal a few bases. To me, he's a 4th outfielder at best but I'm sure there are meatier pickings at this roster slot.
7. RF Ben Francisco - Probably going to win the RF job when camp breaks, thanks to Domonic Brown's broken hand & a myopic view by manager Charlie Manuel, the ex-Cleveland part timer has had a very good spring. I have my doubts as his career .263 BA points to. He does have a modicum of power and could deliver enough to keep the job. I like someone else much better for the post but whoever wins this job is still draft worthy as a back up outfielder.
8. C Carlos Ruiz - A career .260 hitter with enough pop to hit double digit HRs, I don't see him getting anywhere near the .302 he hit last year. He'll be given plenty of rope to hold onto the position so I guess that makes him possibly draftable as a low end starting catcher or a decent backup. I think I can do better.
Possibilities
2B Josh Barfield - The 1st of two Phillie players with good baseball bloodlines. The son of former slugging Blue Jay star outfielder Jesse, it has been a long 5 years around the baseball horn getting to the Phillies for this once Padre phenom. You'd have to go back to his rookie season of 2006 to find some tangible numbers for support. The power potential from then has yet to return but he hit .400 in his last MLB appearance spanning 20 ABs in 2009 & has mashed the ball at a .393 pace this spring. To me, he's the best option while Utley recovers but I'd watch to see what the team decides to do.
OF John Mayberry Jr. - Here's the 2nd player with a MLB dad. Junior is son to former KC slugging 1st baseman of the same name. I have always believed that sports bloodlines are a great tell in projecting future pro level success and that has proven out to be true for the most part. The son has been around his dad enough to know what leads to success and the genes usually inherit the physical ability as well. Mayberry has the physical tools for certain but has never gotten a chance to prove his wares in two brief stints with the big club. The power is there and has already peeked it's head above ground with 2 HRs, 6 RBIs & a .333 average in only 12 2010 ABs. He's also impressed this spring by doing even better clubbing 5 HRs & hitting .316 so far. He deserves the chance to be an everyday starter ahead of all the other candidates but knowing the painstakingly slow, conservative & deliberate circles Charlie Manuel and his coaching staff moves in, expect Francisco to be given 1st crack based on a truly average career to date. I expect before the season gets too far along, the Phillies will tire of waiting for Francisco to hit at the Major League level & Domonic Brown to show his promise (assuming his hand fracture will heal quickly) and give Mayberry the chance around mid season. I'm going to follow this development closely & jump at the chance to pick him up when he becomes the starter.
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