NEW YORK METS
Rotation
1. RHP Mike Pelfrey - Pelfrey being the ace of the Mets staff should tell you something about their rotation heading into 2011. Most of this is due to Johan Santana being on the shelf until at least June or July. Santana is recovering from shoulder surgery and it is going slow. I won't touch him in this draft, even to stow him on an opening roster in hopes he comes back strong. A fantasy player needs continuous stats to get that title. Pelfrey did have a good 2010 winning 15 games and posting a career low 3.66 ERA. Will this continue? My bench markers say no due to very high career ERA & WHIP numbers (even last year) plus the fact he'll not only be facing the opposition's ace most of the time but New York might struggle to score runs (which bailed Pelfrey out last year) after the 1st 3 in the lineup have taken their turn. He's also not a big K pitcher which turns me away. I see him no better than a 4th or 5th starter so someone else will jump at this bait before me.
2. LHP Jon Niese - His 1st season in the rotation yielded mixed results. He did show flashes at times and his K ratio was fairly decent. He may win more than the 9 games he did in 2010 but a ho-hum 4.20 ERA and a very high WHIP tells me to look elsewhere. I need more positive proof before biting on this one for my opening day roster.
3. RHP R.A. Dickey - The knuckleballer also posted a nice 2010 after doing virtually nothing the previous 7. He won 11 games but more impressively threw a 2.84 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the table. He's a pitcher who won't amass many Ks and I think his career ERA is the biggest tell so I won't be choosing him on draft day.
4. LHP Chris Capuano - When camp breaks he & Young may switch spots. His ERA will probably be somewhere in the low to mid 4.00s, he'll carry a fairly high WHIP, give you a fair amount of Ks and probably win less than 10. Whenever someone describes a pitcher as an "innings eater" I run away and will do so here as well.
5. RHP Chris Young - The last time he went out on the mound for 30+ starts (due to injury) was 2007. His good career ERA and WHIP and the fact that he has looked more than ready this spring leads me to believe he'll have good value at the back of a fantasy rotation. He probably won't have a K/IP ratio close to his career 7.7 but could win more games than any other Mets starter this year and still provide other solid numbers across the board. I'm going to look for him late in my draft.
Closer
RHP Francisco Rodriguez - No issue about who's closing for the Mets either. He's been his typical "lights out" self this spring with dominant K numbers and not allowing a single run in 6-2/3 innings. He can be erratic on occasion as witnessed by his history of blowing at least 5 saves in each of the last 4 years. The Mets should be in plenty of close games giving him lots of save chances but with their current rotation, they could be on the losing end going into the latter portion of games also. He's a #1 closer but not at the top tier level.
Lineup
1. SS Jose Reyes - Only two thing separate Reyes from Hanley Ramirez in terms of top of the line fantasy value at the shortstop position: a) He's been much more fragile (he only played 133 games last year and missed most of 2009 playing only 36 games) & b) He doesn't carry the power bat Ramirez does. His advantage is he's a switch hitter and can get down the line from the left side faster to get on base. Putting that aside, he looks ready to roll in 2011 swiping bases at his normal pace. If healthy, he'll hit close to .300, steal 50-60 bases (more than Han-Ram), still give you about 15 HRs and 60-70 RBIs and score more runs than Ramirez. The Mets lineup just behind him looks better equipped to give him scoring opportunities than Florida too. Any fantasy player would salivate at those numbers and I'd be very happy to have him this year.
2. CF Angel Pagan - He was one of my most pleasant fantasy roster surprises from 2010. Finally given the chance to amass full time at bats in 2010, the switch hitter didn't miss. With the job his to lose in 2011, I think he'll improve on his HR & SB numbers to at least 15 & 45 respectively with a corresponding up tick in RBIs from last year's 69 and still hit .300. No worse than a #3 outfielder for fantasy purposes.
3. 3B David Wright - Rebounding from an off power year in 2009 Wright made it so with a solid 2010. He should be reinstated to elite status this year as with a healthy Reyes and a confident Pagan setting the table in front of him, he should be able to feast. There are very few if any better fantasy players at his position.
4. RF Carlos Beltran - Leg injuries have ravaged his last two seasons and he's currently not playing this spring due to left knee tendinitis. Until he shows different, at least his stolen base ability is gone. He can still hit HRs and drive in runs but even if he's ready to go probably will have a hard time keeping a high BA. I can't afford the risk so count me out.
5. LF Jason Bay - A July concussion derailed his 2010 season & I don't think he'll ever approach the 2009 numbers he posted in Boston. His BA has steadily declined for 3 seasons so that also serves as a warning. I do think he'll rebound slightly from the disastrous 2010 debacle and put up decent power numbers for an outfielder. I won't go after him harder than a #4 outfielder if the situation presents itself but someone will jump the gun on him earlier.
6. 1B Ike Davis - Davis certainly made his presence known in 2010 with a pretty solid year including 19 HRs & 71 RBIs. His lack of plate discipline shown by a .264 average probably means he'll fall back a bit in 2011. I could be wrong as he's had a very solid spring offensively so far. He should make someone's starting fantasy roster as a back up corner infielder.
7. C Josh Thole - Given the starting assignment to begin 2011, his hitting pedigree makes a closer look worthwhile. I believe with regular at bats he can provide at least 20 HRs, 80 RBIs & an average hovering around .300. If he can do this, that's solid fantasy starter numbers for a backstop. If you missed out on the top guys, this one might give you a fantasy lift in 2011.
8. 2B Brad Emaus/David Murphy - With Luis Castillo now released, the job may fall to a platoon situation until someone takes the bull by the horns. Leftie hitter Murphy is making quite a transition from 1st base and if he can bring up his average a bit closer to what he's done before, maintain the numbers (12 HRs/63 RBIs) he sported last year while still handling the position defensively, he could be the better part of this time share. From the right side Emaus, the ex-Blue Jay, has hitting ability as well. He hit .306 & .400 in two spring camps with the Jays but is slow in 2011 with a .231 BA. The Mets may also like Murphy's power more. I'm not jumping at either one for opening day & neither should you unless you're really hurting for a middle infielder and that's a stretch.
OF Lucas Duda - It says a lot that the highest ranked Mets prospect, Wilmer Flores, is not only at a strong position for the MLB club but ranked in the 50s among most ranking scouts. This dearth could be due to many years of the big club not getting to the post season but also not bad enough to get a draft lottery pick. That could change as losing years could snow ball. Duda appears to be the only one who will crack the MLB roster in 2011. If Beltran can't go when the opening bell rings, Duda will more than likely step in. He didn't distinguish himself in 84 2010 ABs but does have the promise of power potential. This spring has shown much the same with 2 HRs & 6 RBIs but only a .261 BA. Much better than the .202 he showed in his 2010 debut. We'll see what shows up.
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