MLB Fantasy Jump Start - San Francisco GIants

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Rotation

1. RHP Tim Lincecum - Firmly entrenched as the ace of this quality starting staff, Lincecum is one of fantasy baseball's surest things. While most lament his 2010 as an off year (16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks in 212-1/3 IP), that alone testifies to the consistently superior numbers he puts up. He still hums the heater in the high 90s & his pitching arsenal is enough to stifle any MLB hitter. Some say there's a dip in his velocity & point to a very inflated home run rate but the fact remains he led the NL in Ks and strikeout ratio for qualifiers. I'd expect at least a small rebound in 2011 that could easily see him returning to 18 or more wins & an ERA south of 3.00. In the top three for fantasy starters, if you want him you better get him quick.

 

2. LHP Jonathan Sanchez - Most information has Sanchez in the #2 hole and based on 2010, there's little to argue about that. I'd slot Matt Cain #2 but Bruce Bochy seems to tag along with everyone else's philosophy of staggering righty/lefty pitching. I honestly don't see the advantage and given that baseball probably has more right handed than left handed hitters, can't buy into it either. So be it. Sanchez gets the #2 call based on his 1st double digit (13) win season for the World Champs to go along with other career bests in ERA (3.07), Ks (205) & just about every other relevant pitching category. 2010 was also the 1st  year he went below 4.24 in ERA so that's quite an improvement and seems even more remarkable as he gave up a career high 96 walks. Not much out of the ordinary there as his control has always been his Achilles heel and strikeouts his forte. So what to make of him for 2011? Well at 28 I think he's finally learned how to control the games he starts so I don't see a big regression happening. With the amount of pitches he throws, he probably won't stick around long in enough in all the games he starts to get the win. Let's say most of his 2010 numbers are representative and he might tack on another win or two. That makes him a low #3 or a high #4 fantasy starter.

3. RHP Matt Cain - There's still a possibility Cain could switch rotation spots with Sanchez but we'll leave him here for now. Most of Cain's 2010 numbers (13 wins & 3.14 ERA for example) very closely resemble Sanchez except for  strikeouts (177). To me, Cain is very capable of approaching Sanchez like numbers in that category as well plus his walk totals have actually decreased the past 3 seasons showing definitive signs of maturing as a starter. He also used to throw so many pitches in a game that he was done in 5 or 6 innings. His average innings pitched per game in 2010 almost hit 7 (6.75) so all the needles are now pointing in the right direction. He used to be a very hard luck starter that never got any run support for his efforts but a suddenly stronger SF offense should help that. I'd put him on the same level as Sanchez as he'll probably win a few more (16 or 17 is certainly in reach) & strike out about 30-40 less over the course of the year.

4. LHP Madison Bumgarner - Some say that Zito goes #4 & put Bumgarner at 5 but I don't think so. We'll discuss Zito soon enough. Though his 4 solid relief appearances in 2009 as a rookie should have been a good clue, he claimed the rotation spot last year when given the chance. Though 21, he showed mound maturity beyond his years in 2010 finishing with 7 wins, a 2.90 ERA & 86 Ks in 19 starts covering 121 IP. The only red flag is he gives up too many hits, which he shouldn't based on the pitches he commands, and that results in higher AA (average against) & WHIP numbers. I also believe he can improve his K rate to compete with the rest of this flame throwing bunch even though I think his out pitch is an off the table curve. Moving up a notch to #4 should also guarantee at least double digit wins (I'm seeing 13). A middle of the pack #5 fantasy starter.   

5. LHP Barry Zito - Wherever he goes, the team that has him covets his skills. I'm pressed to understand why. The thought in San Francisco is management doesn't want the public humiliation of releasing a pitcher they shelled out an enormous amount of money to retain. In the last 4 years, he constantly pitched with an ERA in 4.00s & even 5.00s. A hot beginning in 2010 barely salvaged his season as he still only won 9 while losing 14. Known for his vaunted off speed pitches, he lost nine straight decisions near the end of the year while boasting an ERA in the 5.00s. This eventually led to him being left off the post season roster for the World Champs. Nearing 33, he certainly isn't old and he did manage 150 Ks in not quite 200 IP & a reasonable .250 AA but that also came with a bloated WHIP. The Giants can parade him out there all they want until they see the light and cut their losses but I don't like what I see coming down this track.

Closer

RHP Brian Wilson - Wilson continued to establish himself as one of baseball's most elite closers in 2010 sending hitters back to the dugout not being able to sing "I Get Around" after facing him. Achieving career highs with 48 saves, 1.81 ERA & 93 Ks in only 74-2/3 IP. His other pertinent stats were also exceptional. The fly in the ointment is he's nursing a strained oblique muscle which is keeping him from the pitcher's mound this spring & a recent catch session was cut short. Opening the season on the DL is a possibility but he's vowing to be there when the bell rings. I'd love to believe him and there are very few closers that have his skill set & at the prime of their careers. I'll have to wait and see but past history has told me to stay away from any player who has the hint of a lingering injury. When 100%, I don't know if there are any closers I'd choose over him.  

Lineup

1. CF Andres Torres - In his 1st full season of ABs, 2010 showed the Giants what Torres is capable of by scoring 84 runs with 16 HRs, 63 RBIs & 26 steals. The only area lagging behind is his very career like .268 BA. That tells me he's mastered all parts of his game except for using his speed to get more leg hits. We can expect 2011 should at least raise that average into the mid .270s-.280 and most of us will take that from a lead off hitter who can add almost 20 round trippers and 30 steals. I see another step in his maturation as the Giants fire starter and a quality 3rd outfielder for a fantasy team if he can be consistent which is something that did elude his 2010 play.

2. 2B Freddy Sanchez - Sanchez spent a good portion of the last two seasons with injuries but still managed to show for 431 ABs in 2010. 5 years removed from hitting .344 as a NL batting champ, shoulder surgery may further affect his 2011 play. I don't know if this spring's .239 BA is a tell but I tend to think not as he has 2 HRs & 7 RBIs. Though this is the rarefied air of the Cactus League, this says his shoulder is just fine, thank you. The drawback in his game is that for a middle infielder he doesn't steal bases topping out at 5 in 2009. I don't think he'll ever get near a batting title again and may also never hit .300. At 33, he's also not going to hit more than a handful of HRs and drive in less than 50 RBIs. Even as a #2 hitter for most of his career, he doesn't score a lot of runs and I don't think he'll top the mid-60s this year. With what you can expect from him, I'd say his value is as a very last starting 2nd baseman if you waited too long to fill this roster position and I don't value him much more as a back up middle infielder either. Add a possible injury cropping up as has been his recent history & I'm staying away.

 

3. 1B Aubrey Huff - Huff was 1 of 2 Giants that I can call a savior of my 2010 season which allowed me to win my league championship (like the Giants surprisingly did). I can't recall if I drafted him late or picked him off the FA scrap heap early but his production bolstered my offensive stats greatly. No team wanted him at the beginning of last year but the Giants took a chance and were handsomely rewarded at a bargain basement price. Seeming to laugh age in the face while playing with the enthusiasm of a younger player, he's only two years removed from a monster season with the Orioles. A slight hiccup in 2009 sent all potential suitors scurrying away but he came back strong in 2010 with a .290 BA, 26 HRs & 86 RBIs. All of this was done in a park not known to be kind to power hitters. He even threw 7 stolen bases in for good measure. I'm not going to dismiss him so easily when draft time comes rolling around this year and if what he's done this spring (5 HRs/14 RBIs/.380 BA) is an indicator (& I think it is), he qualifies as a solid middle of the pack starting 1B or the top of the corner infielder heap. I doubt he'll retain eligibility at 3rd but might in the OF further raising his value.

 

4. C Buster Posey - Here's the other guy who pulled my fat out of the 2010 fire. I'm almost certain he went undrafted but I had my eye on him from the beginning and as soon as the Giants made noises about starting him, I jumped with both feet. You know the rest of the story and it is one of the biggest in MLB for 2010. I seriously doubt the Giants would have made a World Series appearance let alone win it without him. In 405 ABs, this rookie who has the cool of a 10 year veteran cracked 18 HRs, drove in 67 while hitting .305. He won't be had so cheaply in 2011 as this could be a monster offensive year for this already polished hitter. I'm not afraid to rank him #1 among MLB catchers and will be extremely disappointed if someone beats me to him in the draft.

 

5. 3B Pablo Sandoval - Some say he may slot as low as 7 in this batting order but that's absurd. You don't do that with a quality MLB hitter in a lineup that needs continuity. Sure, he had quite a regression in 2010 (only his 2nd year as a full timer) from the big numbers he put up in 2009. I'm going to say that will be a small bump on his resume that can probably be attributed to him thinking "boy, this is easy" after 2009 and not being in playing shape all of last year. He seems to have learned quickly dropping 35 pounds in the off season & hitting with the exuberance & authority he showed in 2009. 25-30 HRs with 90 RBIs are more than reachable with an average in the .280s & 80 runs scored. I'm going to say he'll be back with a vengeance in 2011 and post numbers that few MLB 3rd basemen will be able to match.

6. SS Miguel Tejada - His MVP skills from the Oakland & Baltimore years are long gone and he's nearing 37. Tejada is still a viable hitter from the SS position and is capable of hitting 15-20 HRs, driving in 70-80 and hitting at least .270. You won't get any steals but he might score 70 runs as well. He also might get plenty of pitches to hit as he's advantageously positioned between Sandoval and Burrell in the lineup. If you don't need steals from your SS, Tejada still qualifies as a decent mid-pack starter for a fantasy team.

 

7. LF Pat Burrell - If it was me, I'd probably flip Burrell in the order with Ross but here's where he'll probably start. Pat "The Bat" reached a semblance of his Phillie heydays in 2010 with 20 HRs and 64 RBIs in 373 ABs. I guess he figured out there's no place like Citizens Bank Park to hit in. Going back over his numbers, I'm amazed to find he hit 30 or more HRs in 4 separate years with the Phils. Well, that won't happen by the bay. Most are expecting a big year from Burrell but I think he'll hit 25 at most and the other numbers from 2010 (including a BA around .250) will stay status quo. Fine for a last outfielder to fill your roster but no more.

8. RF Cody Ross - Ross has just incurred a right calf strain which will keep him out of action for at least 3 weeks. That's bad news for either him or Burrell (we'll discuss this a little later) but good news for the Giants (what???). Brought over from the Marlins to add more punch to the bottom of this lineup in 2010, he didn't do much for the Giants in the regular season but was the NLCS MVP after his power display in the playoffs for San Francisco. I doubt the fans or management will forget that anytime soon so expect him to fit in somewhere when he's ready to play. In a full season with the Giants, I think he can crank 20 HRs or so, drive in 70 and hit just under .270. He might also get double digit steals as he swiped 9 in 2010. OK for a last outfield roster spot but the injury to start the season will keep me away. 

 

Possibilities

OF Brandon Belt - I think this could be the Buster Posey story of 2011 for the Giants. Though a 1st baseman by trade he's played some outfield this spring. Without a Major League AB to his credit, the Cody Ross injury opens the door for him a little wider. He could replace Ross in right, move to LF if Burrell proves ineffective or play 1st while Ross is out and Huff moving to the grass patrol. Why? Re-adjusting his swing in 2010, he moved from A ball through AAA showing great ability to hit for average and power with great plate discipline. I'm fairly certain he'll join the big club as the season opens now that Ross won't and he's carried his 2010 advancement over to a strong spring showing. Watch this closely and if he starts to pound the ball from a regular position in the lineup, don't take too long to grab him up.

RHP Ryan Vogelsong - If & when the Giants finally decide to cut their losses and move on by dumping Zito, Vogelsong might be the 1st in line. The ex-Pirate of 4 years returns to the team that 1st signed him and looks like he's finally figured it out. Never having shown the promise he was expected to deliver, he's turned it completely around this spring. With 3 starts in 5 appearances covering 15-2/3 IP, he's struck out 14, holds a 2.87 ERA & .211 AA. If he doesn't win the final spot in the bullpen, he'll have to continue this rebirth in the minors for his chance at a starting spot.