CHICAGO CUBS
1. RHP Ryan Dempster - It is interesting to note that the Cubs didn't go harder after the free agent starters available this off season. Always willing to spend, they must feel they can win with what they've got. The veteran enters his 8th season with the Cubs & 4th as a rotation member. Putting up very respectable numbers as a Chicago starter, he'll never disappoint you in ERA, win about 15 games & always give you solid strikeout totals. He'll give up his share of hits and walks as noted by his career WHIP, though. Nearing 34 now, I expect him to continue to show these kind of totals in 2011 as he has mastered the art of getting MLB hitters out. The Cubs must think so too, bumping usual opening day starter Zambrano down a notch. I'd slot him as a middle of the pack #3 or #4 starter for a fantasy team.
2. RHP Carlos Zambrano - Knowing his volatile nature, Zambrano can't be happy being bumped from the top spot after starting the Cubs season 6 years in a row. His past history shows that anything either off the field or during a game that upsets his apple cart directly affects his performance on the field. Nearing 30, he still has great stuff to swing and miss bats but be prepared for him to implode at any time during a game. Big Z still sports a career 3.50 ERA, is very capable of winning about 18 games & giving you very good strikeout totals. Just be ready for periodic in game meltdowns as his less than sterling WHIP points to. Zambrano has stated that he's putting his past anger issues behind him & that would boost his value but I find it hard to believe reviewing his career antics. I still would grab him as a high #3 fantasy starter.
3. RHP Matt Garza - The former Twin and Tampa Bay import may also flip spots in the rotation with Zambrano, giving Big Z another reason to lose his cool. A still young quality starter who won 15 last year, he's always carried an ERA under 4.00 & struck out his share of hitters. He'll gain a small advantage as most NL hitters don't know what he's all about. I do believe in his talent as he was almost unhittable at times last year. Garza has yet to put it together for extended periods of time and can also be shelled when losing focus. He doesn't walk a lot of batters so he'll be able to hang in most games to get the win. I'd draft him as a mid-line #3 or #4 fantasy starter and hope he finds his groove in 2011.
4. RHP Randy Wells - After an eye opening rookie campaign in 2009 where he won 12 & had a sterling 3.05 ERA, Wells took a rather large step back in 2010 losing 14, sporting a very unremarkable 4.26 ERA & a high WHIP. So which Wells will show up in 2011? He did increase his very poor strikeout totals in 2010 but I don't see him having a good K/IP ratio in his career. It is also confusing that he's had an impressive spring with a very low WHIP and continued strikeout success. I'm not sure but he'll probably land somewhere in between his 1st 2 season's numbers in 2011 which might be enough to represent the back end of someone's fantasy rotation or a spot starter. As I can't tell for sure, I'm laying off.
5. RHP Carlos Silva - It appears that the Cubs are foolishly leaning towards Silva to fill the #5 hole here based on his atypically decent 2010 1st half. This would be a big mistake. I honestly don't know what teams see in him as his career across the board is more suited to a role as batting practice pitcher. He's continuing that trend by getting torched this spring to a tune of a 15.88 ERA & a .483 batting average against. If you're smart, you'll stay very far away. There's a much better option, I'll touch on later.
Closer
RHP Carlos Marmol - There's no questioning his stuff, I'm just surprised that it took the Cubs so long to see what they have in Marmol. He continued his absolutely insane strikeout ratio in 2010 striking out 138 in under 78 IP, posted a 2.55 ERA, saved 38 games and had an extremely good WHIP to boot. That's unusual for a flame thrower who relies on his fastball. I'm completely sold on him and after the dust settles and all the top tier well known closers are off the board, I'm targeting Marmol as my #1 guy. With the Cubs probably in a lot close games, Marmol will have plenty of chances to pick up a 9th inning prize.
Lineup
1. 2B Jeff Baker/Blake DeWitt - This is what the Cubs want to open with? Neither is a prototypical lead off man. Righty Baker has not delivered on his promise of power as a Rockie prospect but surprised me with a career BA of .270. He won't steal bases either. He's been hitting .395 this spring but I'm not buying. Ex-Dodger Dewitt brings even less to the table. In addition to a career .259 average, there's no promise of power or speed. As he's hitting .163 this spring, his only hope is that the Cubs will platoon him being a lefty. Yikes, this situation stinks and there's a better option in camp (see below).
2. SS Starlin Castro - Going against the grain of what a typical SS should deliver, Castro hinted at his talent potential in 2010. He did steal 10 bags last year but that's not the major part of his game as he also got caught 8 times. He also hit .300 in 2010 but the power potential is what intrigues most observers. He's slapped spring pitchers around to a tune of .395 with 4 HRs & 12 RBIs. I think that he got his 1st taste of the majors last year and will blossom in all offensive categories in 2011. This is a bonafide starting SS on any fantasy team.
3. 3B Aramis Ramirez - Starting off slow in 2010, you could blame a thumb injury. I look more at his .282 career BA and think 2010 was a bump in the road. Getting to 33 this summer, he still should have enough octane in the tank to produce his typical solid season with the added bonus of seeing better pitches ahead of Pena. Injury concerns is the only possible negative on his chart that might derail 2011. He should mash HRs in the mid 30s, knock in close to 100 & hit in the .290 range. Who won't take that in their 3rd baseman? A higher end starter for fantasy purposes.
4. 1B Carlos Pena - Importing some serious power from Tampa Bay, this free agent should find Wrigley Field to his liking. Be forewarned that his BA will be low but probably closer to his career .241 number instead of last season's .196. I do find it humorous that a player who succeeds 2 out of every 10 times is awarded with a fat pay day. Do you think your boss would buy into that ratio? He'll hit 30-40 HRs and knock in about 100 while still striking out at a feverish pace. He's not a top tier 1st bagger for fantasy purposes but if you waited too long to get your slugger, he'll do in a pinch.
5. CF Marlon Byrd - Coming over from Texas as a 2010 free agent, he did hit a nice .293 and stole a handful of bases. I'm also sure the Cubs expected a lot more than the 12 HRs & 66 RBIs he delivered. A fairly solid hitter who won't wow you with his production is probably what you'll get in 2011. He might improve the HR & RBI numbers to 15 & 75 respectively and in an era of shrinking totals from the outfield position, this might be enough. I'd slot him too low (a #4 fantasy OF) to get him in a draft though.
6. C Geovany Soto - Soto rebounded from a poor 2009 to deliver what he's capable of in 2010. Pronouncing his shoulder ready to go for opening day, he could produce top of the line offensive numbers for a catcher. I can certainly see him getting 20+ HRs, 80 or so RBIs & an average in the mid .280s for 2011. A solid middle to mid-high starting catcher for a fantasy team.
7. LF Alfonso Soriano - If you listen to others, it is time to write off this rapidly aging 35 year old. I'm not so sure & think he might have a little left in the tank for 2011. His power numbers certainly haven't declined that much in the past few years but his BA is dropping and his speed is all but gone from his 5 tool heydays. You can expect 25 HRs, 80 RBIs & a BA in the .250-.260 range for 2011 and that's good enough to fit in any fantasy outfield as a 3rd or 4th starter.
8. RF Tyler Colvin/Kosuke Fukudome - The Cubs are still trying to force split duty here due to their monetary investment in Fukudome. In my mind, he's been given more than a chance to become the full time right fielder and it's time to cut their losses. I see Colvin as a budding star who just needs ABs to prove his worth. Though he only hit .256 in sproadic duty last year, he hinted at his potential with 20 four baggers. He's at it this spring hitting a respectable .277 with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. If given enough ABs, this season could yield 25 HRs, 70-80 RBIs & a .270 average. Enough to consider him fantasy roster worthy. Fukudome, in the exact same number of ABs (358) did worse than Colvin in 2010 and his 3 year career with the Cubs has got to be a disappointment to management. His spring has been a disaster as well and the Cubs laughably want to try him in the lead off spot! Cue Keyshawn Johnson......."Come on, man!" I think the Fukudome experiment is done but the Cubs are too stubborn to give it up. I won't be going anywhere near him on draft day.
Possibilities
2B Darwin Barney - This is my solution to the lead off/2B problem. A SS by trade, he has spent time manning the 2nd base position. This 4th round 2007 pick who's now 25 showed a .299 average in AAA Iowa last year. Pressing for playing time with a .371 BA this spring, he might surface at 2B before the Cub's 2011 season gets too long. Keep watch as he could help your middle infield woes as an in season free agent pick up.
RHP Andrew Cashner - This could be the answer to the back of the rotation issues Chicago has. The Cubs are also toying with the idea and he should at least make the club in a relief role as he did in 2010. He does need to master his control problems as he sported a 4.80 ERA & 1.56 WHIP in 53 2010 relief appearances. I look at his solid .267 BA against and 50 Ks in 54-1/3 innings instead. He's been good in 2 spring starts so perhaps the Cubs are finally seeing the light also. They certainly have nothing to lose by installing him as their 5th starter but let's see what develops here.
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