CINCINNATI REDS
Rotation
1. RHP Edinson Volquez - Some seem to have Cueto in this spot but Volquez gets the opening day nod and if you go strictly by ability and stuff, it is well deserved. His wildness is well documented and like any young pitcher, he can easily lose focus during a game. A fastball and change up that has opposing bats swinging at air when he can control them, he also isn't afraid to use everything in his ammo locker anywhere in the count. A 1st breakout season with the Reds in 2008 (17-6, 3.21 ERA, 206K) has been followed by two injury plagued years with a combined 21 starts & included Tommy John surgery. He appears to be healthy this spring but has yet to appear in a starter's role and has been limited to 2-1/3 innings. There's no denying his talent and he is the current ace of the staff. He has yet to prove that he has harnessed his wildness and the lack of mound appearances gives me pause. I won't throw a high pick his way as there are too many negative factors but if he's right, could provide a serious boost to your pitching stats.
2. RHP Bronson Arroyo - Arroyo pitched just below his 4.19 career ERA last year posting a respectable 3.88. He also won 17 which makes the 3rd year in a row he's logged in at least 15. His WHIP was the 2nd lowest of his career as well so you could easily consider him a success from a fantasy standpoint. In general, he'll give you decent K numbers but nothing that stands out. At 34, you may see a slight decline that could begin this year with slightly worse numbers across the board but he's certainly capable of being a good 4th or 5th starter on your roster.
3. RHP Johnny Cueto - Pulled from his last spring start with a bicep/forearm injury, he may be lost for more time than expected. This spring has been anything but successful anyway but he did pull together a surprising 2010 campaign with career bests in wins, ERA, WHIP & average against. We're only talking about 3 full seasons as a Reds starter and he mirrors Volquez in many ways except perhaps not as good in striking hitters out and a little better control. Both are relatively young with time to harness their effective qualities. For me & when he's good to go, I wouldn't select him higher than a #5 starter. Now that injury concerns, particularly arm woes, are looming, I won't get near him on draft day.
4. RHP Homer Bailey - The perennial Reds phenom, he hasn't put it all together in 4 seasons with the big club. Last year was no exception even though he finally found his strikeout groove. A career 5.09 WHIP and very high 1.56 WHIP tells me this is still a work in progress as he nears 25. I think there's still hope and he did improve on most of his numbers in 2010. This spring has been more of the same and perhaps he carries a name that would be better suited as a hitter. I see no reason to buy in yet.
5. LHP Travis Wood - He has won the 5th starter spot and might even move up more if Cueto's injury lingers. In 17 2010 starts, he threw out a solid 3.51 ERA, .222 average against and a sparkling 1.08 WHIP along with a very respectable K rate. He's carried that over into the spring and adding to the fact that he'll probably spend most if not all of 2011 in the Reds rotation, could be a good bet to give you beneficial numbers from the back of a fantasy rotation.
Closer
RHP Francisco Cordero - He's installed as the closer right now but is far from the consistent rock the top tier closers are. No doubt (as long as he remains in this role) he'll get his share of saves and the 40 he cranked out in 2010 could be considered as his water level. He also blew 8 other chances and was on shaky ground of being replaced at times during the season. Perhaps he wasn't as the Reds really had no other viable candidate to replace him. That could change this year if he stumbles. Most of his career tell numbers are good including an above average K rate. It was phenomenal up to 2008 but has declined somewhat significantly the last 2 years so as he approaches 36, age may be creeping in. Right now, he does belong on a fantasy roster as a closer but perhaps a 2nd one.
LHP Aroldis Chapman - The Reds still don't know what to do with the Cuban import of the 100-105 MPH fastball. He spent 15 2010 appearances in middle relief but that is a true waste of his talents. He came away with a 2.05 ERA and 19 Ks in 13-1/3 innings & has followed that up with an almost as dominating spring. None of his 7 spring trips to the mound have been as a starter and he has only logged a total of 10 innings in them so it likely seems a starter's role in not in the cards for 2011. Closing would be another story and if Cordero shows any period of being ineffective I doubt the Reds would hesitate to install him as the closer. Remember how Feliz shone for the Rangers in that role last year? Teams are much more likely to give a young flamethrower a shot nowadays. His only weakness may be control but based on his brief exposure at the MLB level and the talent he shows, I'm all in. He's almost worth a roster spot right now as he'll at least fatten your strikeout totals but if there's any inkling of a change to the closer's role, jump on it with both feet.
Lineup
1. CF Drew Stubbs - Not yet at the point he needs to be as a lead off hitter, Stubbs still showed what he could do in a full season with impressive 2010 power and SB numbers. I also think the relatively low (.255) BA will also improve & his strikeouts will go down as his plate discipline gets better. A true 5 tool player with future membership in the 30/30 club looks to be just over the horizon and he's no worse than a #3 outfielder right now.
1. CF Drew Stubbs - Not yet at the point he needs to be as a lead off hitter, Stubbs still showed what he could do in a full season with impressive 2010 power and SB numbers. I also think the relatively low (.255) BA will also improve & his strikeouts will go down as his plate discipline gets better. A true 5 tool player with future membership in the 30/30 club looks to be just over the horizon and he's no worse than a #3 outfielder right now.
2. 2B Brandon Phillips - One of the better hitting MLB players at a notoriously weak offensive position, he took a step back in 2010 over his usual All-Star type numbers. Closing in on 30 this summer, he should still be able to rebound at the top of a well protected lineup. In 2011, his average should be in the .270-.280 range with 20-25 HRs, about 85-90 RBIs & 25 steals. I don't know anyone who wouldn't love those numbers from their starting fantasy 2nd baseman.
3. 1B Joey Votto - This lineup has the potential to torment many NL pitching staffs and the chief culprit is budding superstar Votto. After two very solid seasons with the Reds in 2008 & 2009, he busted totally loose last year. Putting up monster numbers even for a 1st baseman (.324/37 HRs/113 RBIs), the scary part is this could be the tip of the iceberg. Even more incredible, he stole 16 bases as well. I'm targeting him as one of my most desirable 1st round picks.
4. 3B Scott Rolen - Nearing 36, Rolen's fearsome power years are long behind him and I'm a bit surprised to see him slotted #4. He still showed respectable power numbers in 2010 & hit a solid .285 but I think he's best suited down at the #6 hole with Jay Bruce at clean up and Heisey at #5 (over Gomes). In any case he can certainly hit 20+ HRs again in 2011 but I think his RBI totals & BA will slip a bit. He'd be OK as a lower end starting 3rd baseman or a solid back up corner outfielder but I think there's much better available to start at 3B for your team.
5. RF Jay Bruce - As if the Reds lineup needs another breakout candidate, we've been waiting for this one to blossom & put it together for 3 years. He did come out of his cocoon a bit in 2010 raising his BA to .281 and slightly improving on his fairly solid power numbers. Given the Reds lineup and the friendly hitters atmosphere of Great American Ballpark, I think Bruce could bust out some truly heavy offensive stats this year. He'll slot no lower than a very solid #3 fantasy outfielder.
6. LF Jonny Gomes - 2010 was called a "career year" for Gomes (.266/18 HRs/86 RBIs). Maybe for him but fairly ordinary for a fantasy outfielder. I believe he'll revert back to form as an inconsistent streaky hitter who whiffs a lot if handed the starting job and drop back to his career water marks that are not nearly what he did last season. This one isn't for me on draft day and I like someone else for this job much, much better.
7. C Ryan Hanigan/Ramon Hernandez - Both of these catchers are merely place holders for the soon to be resident starter here. Closing in on 35, Hernandez still has a little bit of pop left in his bat and could hit for a very acceptable average. The decline could also come as soon as this year leaving you with little in the way of offensive stats & that's my opinion of what you'll get from him this year. Hanigan is a bit younger at 30 and closely mirrored Hernandez's stats from a year ago. He seems more likely to put up decent offensive numbers in 2011 with a real chance to hit close to .300. The fact that neither will probably realize the number of at bats needed to sustain this position on your fantasy team has me leaving both where they are on draft day. If you're in desperate need of a catcher late in your draft, pick one.
8. SS Paul Janish - I think Great American Ball Park can inflate anyone's stats but Janish needs Helium as well to do this. Showing a sliver of offense in his 3rd year as a part timer, he hit .260 with 5 HRs and 25 RBIs in 200 ABs. Projected over a full season, that could amount to respectable SS numbers. I don't think he'll ever be a valuable fantasy SS and he doesn't even steal bases.
Possibilities
C Devin Mesoraco - Here's the future of Reds catching I alluded to earlier. Not doing much in the minors the two seasons before, the former 1st round pick finally put together a good 2010 finishing up at AAA and the Arizona Fall League. He continued to show improvement mashing the ball at a .462 clip with the Reds this spring. He should deliver a solid average and more than enough power to hold the starter's job in the near future with the declining state of the position currently. More observation is needed and I'm sure he'll begin 2011 at AAA again but the talent is definitely there.
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