MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Rotation
1. RHP Yovani Gallardo - The Brew Crew were dealt a severe opening blow when perhaps the biggest off season acquisition in MLB, Zack Greinke, hurt himself with a fractured rib playing basketball. Not the best way to endear yourself to new fans & his projected return date of April 16th is being called "optimistic". If it lingers or he comes back too early or if it effects the way he throws this year, it will put a major crimp into Milwaukee's plans. That's enough to keep me from even stashing him on my opening day roster. Luckily for the Brewers, they have another ace in Gallardo. He also has a history of being fragile and missing time on the mound. The Brewers hope this is behind him and he's started 61 games over the last 2 years, winning only 27 in that span. For pure talent, there isn't much better in the bigs as he carries 3.67 career ERA, 2.38 BA against and almost a 10 K/9 IP ratio. His career WHIP is a little high and the inability to put a big win season together is also a concern. Relatively young at 25, I think he could get close to 20 wins in 2011 with his other usual good numbers if he can stay in one piece. No doubt he's a #1 starter for most fantasy teams.
2. RHP Shaun Marcum - Another import (from Toronto), a move to the NL could actually boost his stats. A stellar career ERA of 3.85 done mostly in a hitters paradise says a lot. All of his other pertinent pitching numbers also look good & he's certainly capable of getting close to a 9 K/9 IP ratio. He's never won more than 13 in a season and after firing out of the gate in 2010, he experienced mid-season doldrums before gathering himself at the end. He, like Gallardo, has had injuries following him around, particularly the last few years & has had shoulder tightness this spring. Again, with the caveat that he stays healthy in 2011, 15 wins and 180 Ks are well within reach. A solid #3 starter who could deliver #2 type starter stats.
3. LHP Randy Wolf - Many so called experts are picking Milwaukee to win the NL Central and it has to be on the strength of what Greinke, Gallardo & Marcum could do. With injuries already looming over them & other divisional rivals with better top to bottom hitting, that forecast could go up in smoke. Originally slotted in the #4 hole, Wolf moves up a notch with Greinke out. He's a capable vet who's certainly shown more durability than the others and has won double digit games the last 3 years. His strikeout ratio is OK, career ERA (4.13) isn't great & his WHIP is inflated as he gives up lots of hits & walks. Like many other pitchers, his career shows much better performance at home than on the road. I believe at 34, age will start to affect his performance this year and he may not last in the rotation all season. He usually has good springs but is getting beat like a drum this year to the tune of a 10.66 ERA. That tells me he's already lost most of the snap off his pitches. A meltdown might not be far behind so don't waste a roster spot on him.
4. LHP Chris Narveson - Moving from 5 to 4 in the rotation until Greinke comes back doesn't mean he'll be effective. A high career ERA and WHIP still yielded 12 wins in 2010 but his ERA last year almost touched 5.00. He's not a bad strikeout pitcher but there's no way you should go near him for your roster.
5. RHP Wily Peralta - Digging deeper to field a 5 man rotation, beefy Peralta is being considered by the Brewers based on no MLB experience & a spring 9.00 ERA. How could this possibly go well & why are the Brewers considering this? Well, originally Manny Parra was to fill this spot but a back ailment has him out indefinitely and I'm not sure he'd be the answer anyway as his career 5.13 ERA and hideous 1.64 WHIP attests to. The Brewers say they are looking for pitching help when the answer might be right under their noses (see below).
Closer
RHP John Axford - It seems the Brewers always find a closer that is extremely effective for about a year and a half before they implode and someone else comes along. Axford may have more staying power. Saving 24 in 27 chances last year while striking out a phenomenal 76 in 58 innings along with a sparkling 2.48 ERA & 1.19 WHIP. A full season in the closer's role could potentially deliver elite type numbers. He's not a top tier closer yet but certainly a #1 in the meaty part of the curve & one of the best kept secrets in fantasy baseball.
Lineup
1. 2B Rickie Weeks - Wow, where did that power spike come from last year? After never hitting more than 16 in a full season, he busted out 29 HRs last year along with 83 RBIs. Will he continue? I think it is possible but we might want to temper our enthusiasm for 2011. My feeling is at 28, he's finally learning the nuances of hitting and becoming a quality player in MLB. I think he'll certainly top 20 HRs (probably around 24), still knock in about 75-80, hit for a higher average (.270-.280) and still steal about 16 bags. Sounds like a very high pick at 2B to me.
2. CF Carlos Gomez - Chiefly known for his defensive prowess (along with Bourn, I consider these 2 the best fielding grass patrollers in baseball), it is strange that he hits #2 in the lineup. I suppose Milwaukee probably doesn't have anyone else who has the traits to handle this spot but I'd try Corey Hart when he's healthy. He hasn't been able to use his great speed to an offensive advantage yet and may never get it. He's a career .246 hitter with a little pop who might steal 20 bases but not score many runs. Don't let his .390 spring average fool you, he's done this before and sometimes even come out of the gate on fire for a little while but in the end he'll disappoint offensively. Unless you need some cheap steals during the season, don't look for help here.
3. LF Ryan Braun - Yes, 2010 was a disappointing year for Braun and anyone who picked him in round 1 only because of the lower HR output. He still put up All-Star numbers across the board in the other categories & I think he'll be back to normal in 2011 with HRs in the mid 30s, 110+ RBIs & a BA well above .300 and steals in the mid-teens. With the added incentive of the Brew Crew probably hanging around to vie for a post season berth, his focus should be right on target. I also don't think a spring rib cage strain will affect him during the regular season. He's still a high 1st round pick as far as I'm concerned.
4. 1B Prince Fielder - Sure, at some point the weight issue will start to affect his on field performance as he nears 27. I think that might be partially responsible for his 2010 down year but then again it didn't bother his dad. He should have incentive to stay in shape and focus this year as free agency looms. Sitting between Braun and McGehee in the lineup doesn't hurt either. Look for HRs in the high 30s, 90-100 RBIs & an average close to his career .279. You might find a decline in runs scored and he won't steal hardly any bases at all. Still a top of the heap slugging 1st baseman just below the other stars at this position.
5. 3B Casey McGehee - McGehee broke out the lumber in 2010. Keep in mind that last year was only his 1st full MLB season. He was on fire in the 1st half and tail off a bit as the season progressed. This could certainly be due to never having amassed as much playing time before and fatigue crept in. No matter, I think he can not only duplicate his numbers but improve them in 2011. I expect to see 25-30 HRs, perhaps a slightly lower RBI total in the 90s & an average around .290. More than enough for a starting 3rd baseman on your fantasy team.
6. SS Yuniesky Betancourt - This spot in the order would be filled by Corey Hart (assuming he took off his Sunglasses At Night for games under the lights) but a strained rib cage muscle this spring has kept him out of the lineup. We don't know if he'll be ready for opening day but he's still draftable late as he'll provide good power numbers & a decent average (I'll guess 25 HR/85 RBI, a .270 average & perhaps a half dozen steals). Healthy or not, I don't think he'll approach last year's career stats in 2011 & if you draft him high hoping for those totals, it might be a big gamble. Hart does have an injury history & this might temper or gouge his 2011 overall stats. New AL import Betancourt mans this spot and SS for now. A career .272 hitter with some pop, he must have been eating his Wheaties in 2010 as he pounded out career highs with 16 HRs and 78 RBIs in a ballpark not known to help hitter's power stats. So what to make of him in Milwaukee? I think he'll hit a bit better than the .259 he posted last year, let's say .270. The power numbers should come down a bit to 13 HRs & 65 RBIs and of course he'll hardly steal any bases. Not bad for a late pick at SS or a bargain as a middle infield back up.
7. RF Mark Kotsay - Betancourt will reside here when Hart returns & journeyman utility outfielder/1st baseman Kotsay will return to the bench. While he starts, don't expect enough offensive stats to make him a worthwhile roster addition. He has a little power and is capable of hitting in the .270-.280 area with very little in the way of runs scored or stolen bases.
8. C Jonathan Lucroy - Also currently nursing a spring fractured right pinky, reports optimistically say he'll be good to go on opening day. He didn't distinguish himself in 277 2010 rookie ABs but the Brewers have little else to turn to at catcher with a more dangerous bat. Prior to getting hurt, he was hitting a miserable .143 this spring. He has a little bit of punch in his bat but not worthy of more than a late choice as a back up catcher if your league requires 2. I'm not interested.
Possibilities
RHP Mark Rogers - This is the guy I alluded to earlier on for a shot in the Milwaukee injury depleted rotation. Unfortunately, he is also one of the walking wounded this spring with a stiff throwing shoulder. While that is never good for a starting pitcher candidate, he should appear as a starter in a spring game this week (3/21). We'll see what happens then and so far his 2011 Cactus League has not gone as planned pitching just 1 inning and posting a n 18.00 ERA. He has all the pitching tools to stick at the MLB level and was quite effective in 4 2010 mound visits which included 2 starts. He sported a 1.80 ERA, 0.50 WHIP & struck out 11 batters in 10 IP. Count me among his fans but I'd wait to see how the rest of the spring shakes out for him before taking the fantasy plunge.
RHP Mike McClendon - Another imposing physical specimen with about the same build & amount of experience as Rogers as well as an equal ability to strike hitters out. He didn't quite match the 2010 numbers rogers posted with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP & 21 strikeouts in an equal number of innings. He's done better this spring with a 3.60 ERA but only 2 Ks in 10 IP & doesn't have any current injuries. This might give him 1st crack at the rotation ahead of Rogers. I think both will fill out the balance of a potentially devastating 5 man rotation if Greinke, Gallardo & Marcum stay healthy and stick around for a while.
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