NEW YORK YANKEES
Rotation
1. LHP CC Sabathia - What can you say about a stud pitcher who's averaged 19 wins, 200 Ks and an ERA in the low 3.00s over the past five years? Well, he's 25 pounds lighter going into the 2011 season so he might be even more of a horse this year. Sure, he has bad springs (3 years in a row) & he'll toss a clunker every once in a while but he's one of the few pitchers in baseball that you can start with confidence all the time. A #1 starter you'd be thankful to have.
2. RHP Phil Hughes - Certainly has the pitching tools & ability to build on last year's break out effort. He started off on fire but seemed to hit a wall in the second half of the season. This could partly be attributed to his 1st taste of logging a significant amount of innings. While he might not get to his win total of 2010, there shouldn't be much of a drop off there and he should continue to rack up K's at a solid rate. His finish should be stronger in 2011 and with a solid offense to support him, this is a solid #2 starter.
3. RHP A.J. Burnett - A tough pitcher to figure out. Based on ability alone, he should be able to pitch lights out but even going back to his Marlin days, a series of nagging & more serious injuries coupled with visible loss of focus and concentration on the mound have kept him from achieving major success. It's doubtful that any of that will change so for now he remains a .500 pitcher with good strikeout ability but control issues & an inflated ERA. He's been working with a cleaner wind up & started with a good outing this spring but call me skeptical. I see him as a fantasy team 4th starter at best.
4. RHP Ivan Nova - Called up last year after having the 2nd best ERA in the International (AAA) league, the numbers in his brief stint were inconclusive. He finished with a very average ERA and high WHIP in 7 starts with New York. Even with the Bronx Bombers behind him, I don't think I'd waste a fantasy roster spot on him just yet.
5. RHP Sergio Mitre - Another former Marlin that has yet to impress. With NY's track record of transplants from this team (high priced Carl Pavano also some to mind), perhaps they should look elsewhere in the future. There's not much to like here with a career ERA of 5.27 and a very pedestrian K/IP ratio. I'd stay away.
Update 3/9/2011:
It now appears that New York is as concerned about the back end of their rotation as well. In this regard two well traveled starters are in contention for spots 4 & 5
RHP Freddie Garcia - He only longer has a fastball that hums in the mid 90s and barely touches 90 but had a minor resurgence in 2010 for the White Sox winning 14 games. His ERA and WHIP were nothing to write home about and I suspect the Chicago offense had something to do with his success. He has pitched 5 scoreless spring innings including a start on 3/8 that included 3 strikeouts. He remains a crafty pitcher who knows how to throw hitters off balance by "pitching backwards" (off speed in fastball situations and vice versa). I'm not sold and I think he'll become very hittable as the 2011 season moves on. He might accumulate some wins thanks again to his supporting offense but don't expect any solid returns in the other pitching stats.
RHP Bartolo Colon - Another veteran who suddenly has found his fastball again. Still tipping the scales at a beefy 265 for a 5'-11" stature doesn't bode well for his already checkered injury prone history. Other than the wins, his 2010 (also with the White Sox) is amazingly similar to Garcia. I guess they came as package deal. He's also had a good spring (2 starts, 5 IP, 1.80 ERA, 5K & a 1.00 WHIP) so far and might have better stuff than Garcia at this point. If he makes the rotation, you might want to pick him up off waivers or free agency and ride the stats until he eventually gets hurt. I don't think a draft spot is warranted though.
Closer
RHP Mariano Rivera - He keeps rolling along at 41. There is slight cause for concern as his saves & strikeouts tumbled a bit last year. Still a top shelf closer but maybe a bit below elite status now. Another issue may be that Soriano might be used in more save situations this year as the team may feel less for him this year might turn out to be more.
RHP Rafael Soriano - Beefed up his already glowing rep in Atlanta with a superb year closing for Tampa Bay in 2010. Given the opportunity, he would easily meet and surpass those numbers. The concern is I think NY will initially lean more on Rivera & bring Soriano in more and more as the season progresses thus making neither one a sure thing to equal the saves & K's of the best closers in baseball. I'd watch this closely and pounce on Soriano if indications point to a changing of the guard.
RHP Rafael Soriano - Beefed up his already glowing rep in Atlanta with a superb year closing for Tampa Bay in 2010. Given the opportunity, he would easily meet and surpass those numbers. The concern is I think NY will initially lean more on Rivera & bring Soriano in more and more as the season progresses thus making neither one a sure thing to equal the saves & K's of the best closers in baseball. I'd watch this closely and pounce on Soriano if indications point to a changing of the guard.
Lineup
1. SS Derek Jeter - This Yankee icon took a dip in BA, SB & Home Runs last year, Was it just a hiccup or is age starting to creep in? Don't know for sure but I tend to think the latter. Last year's numbers may again be represented in kind this year but he's still a fantasy team solid starting SS.
2. CF Curtis Granderson - His strikeouts have gone up and his BA & stolen bases have gone down in the last two years. His power numbers have remained at a solid level and a swing tweak by Yankee's hitting coach seems to have helped at the end of last year. I'm cautiously optimistic that 2011 will yield stats closer to his Tiger days. Drafted as a 3rd fantasy outfielder should give good returns.
3. 1B Mark Teixeira - For those of you who threw a high draft pick on him last year, you had to be disappointed that his annual slow start was worse & lasted longer in 2010. His BA also never recovered. He's been hitting well this spring and the Yankees want to see if more spring training ABs will help him get off to a better April/May. Will put up solid power numbers again in 2011 and the BA should go up as well. He's a good fantasy starter at 1B but I don't consider him a sure fire 1st or 2nd round buy in anymore.
4. 3B Alex Rodriguez - His stats have certainly slipped from his prime years with the biggest concern being in a SB drop off last year. Most who had him complained about his overall 2010 numbers but I'd take them any day (30/125/.270) from my starting 3rd baseman. He's still 35 so I'm not throwing in the towel here. Batting cleanup in a powerful lineup doesn't hurt either. If I had the chance to grab him in Round 1, I'd jump on it.
5. 2B Robinson Cano - I wasn't a big believer until getting his 2010 stats shoved in my face last year. Cano
6. RF Nick Swisher - I felt the same way about him that I did about Cano but after his 2010 season, I went back & took a look at his history. I was amazed at the production numbers he's put up for the past 6 years. He's one of those hitters who quietly produces so I'm no board now, particularly since it seems he's found a home with the Yanks. With the new age scarcity of solid fantasy outfielders, a fairly high pick (3-5) on him won't be wasted. As with Cano and most of the Yankee big bats, you'll have to make up stolen bases elsewhere.
7. DH Jorge Posada - Being the primary DH with occasionally spelling Martin at C should help this 39 year old. If still eligible at catcher also helps his value. The power numbers, though respectable for a weak stat position, will probably continue to move south in 2011 (RBIs took a big drop last year as he moves down in the lineup) & his years of good batting average are probably behind him as well. If you're looking for a starting catcher late, you could do worse but I'd try to fill that position with one of the new wave of solid hitting young catchers.
8. C Russell Martin - Coming off a knee injury for a catcher is one thing but a precipitous decline in stats the last 2 years (for a relatively young player) is a bigger concern for me. NY had to go and get someone to replace Posada behind the plate and Martin's defensive skills fit that bill but I'm wary. If you need a 2nd catcher late, maybe.
9. LF Brett Gardner - A solid #9 hitter who's real forte is stealing bases & scoring runs. If he continues to hit at his 2010 pace (.277), all will be well. Recent nagging injuries are a concern but if you're looking for a 4th outfielder to give you production in the categories mentioned, you'll probably be rewarded. With New York's lineup, 100+ runs from him is a real probability.
2. CF Curtis Granderson - His strikeouts have gone up and his BA & stolen bases have gone down in the last two years. His power numbers have remained at a solid level and a swing tweak by Yankee's hitting coach seems to have helped at the end of last year. I'm cautiously optimistic that 2011 will yield stats closer to his Tiger days. Drafted as a 3rd fantasy outfielder should give good returns.
3. 1B Mark Teixeira - For those of you who threw a high draft pick on him last year, you had to be disappointed that his annual slow start was worse & lasted longer in 2010. His BA also never recovered. He's been hitting well this spring and the Yankees want to see if more spring training ABs will help him get off to a better April/May. Will put up solid power numbers again in 2011 and the BA should go up as well. He's a good fantasy starter at 1B but I don't consider him a sure fire 1st or 2nd round buy in anymore.
4. 3B Alex Rodriguez - His stats have certainly slipped from his prime years with the biggest concern being in a SB drop off last year. Most who had him complained about his overall 2010 numbers but I'd take them any day (30/125/.270) from my starting 3rd baseman. He's still 35 so I'm not throwing in the towel here. Batting cleanup in a powerful lineup doesn't hurt either. If I had the chance to grab him in Round 1, I'd jump on it.
5. 2B Robinson Cano - I wasn't a big believer until getting his 2010 stats shoved in my face last year. Cano
6. RF Nick Swisher - I felt the same way about him that I did about Cano but after his 2010 season, I went back & took a look at his history. I was amazed at the production numbers he's put up for the past 6 years. He's one of those hitters who quietly produces so I'm no board now, particularly since it seems he's found a home with the Yanks. With the new age scarcity of solid fantasy outfielders, a fairly high pick (3-5) on him won't be wasted. As with Cano and most of the Yankee big bats, you'll have to make up stolen bases elsewhere.
7. DH Jorge Posada - Being the primary DH with occasionally spelling Martin at C should help this 39 year old. If still eligible at catcher also helps his value. The power numbers, though respectable for a weak stat position, will probably continue to move south in 2011 (RBIs took a big drop last year as he moves down in the lineup) & his years of good batting average are probably behind him as well. If you're looking for a starting catcher late, you could do worse but I'd try to fill that position with one of the new wave of solid hitting young catchers.
8. C Russell Martin - Coming off a knee injury for a catcher is one thing but a precipitous decline in stats the last 2 years (for a relatively young player) is a bigger concern for me. NY had to go and get someone to replace Posada behind the plate and Martin's defensive skills fit that bill but I'm wary. If you need a 2nd catcher late, maybe.
9. LF Brett Gardner - A solid #9 hitter who's real forte is stealing bases & scoring runs. If he continues to hit at his 2010 pace (.277), all will be well. Recent nagging injuries are a concern but if you're looking for a 4th outfielder to give you production in the categories mentioned, you'll probably be rewarded. With New York's lineup, 100+ runs from him is a real probability.
Possibilities
C Jesus Montero - The future for this promising star might be closer than you think. Cervelli's injury might hasten Montero's shot at big league stardom. One of the new wave of offensive minded catchers I've been alluding to, he can hit MLB pitching now. If Martin stumbles, the Yankees might go against their history of plugging a hole with a mid-season veteran acquisition and give him the keys to driving the family car. Watch this development closely.
OF Andruw Jones - It seems like eons ago from his days as a budding superstar Braves prospect but his last year in Atlanta was 2007. He's now 33 and coming off many injury plagued recent years. So what's to like? The power and production are still there and he did steal 9 in 2010. He could see at bats filling in for Posada and in the outfield on occasion. He'd certainly be in line to replace anyone who gets hurt at those positions so monitor those developments if they happen.
OF Justin Maxwell - A former Nationals prospect, I don't quite know why I still think he has a chance now at 27. I believe his ability to hit for power, steal bases & play good defense with a big arm is attractive to New York but he has been a big disappointment so far not being able to hit MLB pitching. It will probably be tough for him to catch on as a 5th outfielder here but if the light goes on and he starts to hit, things could change.
OF Justin Maxwell - A former Nationals prospect, I don't quite know why I still think he has a chance now at 27. I believe his ability to hit for power, steal bases & play good defense with a big arm is attractive to New York but he has been a big disappointment so far not being able to hit MLB pitching. It will probably be tough for him to catch on as a 5th outfielder here but if the light goes on and he starts to hit, things could change.
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